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The_Ultimate_Pielord

I put math in hockey
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Forum: Edmonton Oilers25 juill. 2022 à 20 h 4
Since Jesse's the last big remaining controversy for the Oilers this offseason, I want to take a look at what he brings to the team, what he doesn't bring to the team, why the Oilers should keep him, and how they should use him if they do. The argument tends to be between the fancy stats crowd and the traditionalists (I'm in the former camp), but I want to try and explain how boxscores underrate Jesse and what the more complex models see in him. To do that, I should explain how a spreadsheet sees the game of hockey.

One way to model hockey, used largely by the wonderful Dr. Micah McCurdy of hockeyviz.com, whose work will show up a lot here, is to view it as 2 distinct interactions. The first interaction is generating and suppressing <strong>expected goals</strong>. Expected goals, or xG, is a stat that assigns value to each unblocked shot attempt (goals, saves, misses (including pings) at the moment it is taken, based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. So a shot that has a 20% chance of scoring is worth 0.2 xG, while a 50/50 chance would provide 0.5 xG. The model that does this includes a multitude of factors, most importantly the location of the shot, but also the type of shot, whether it occurred off the rush or was a rebound, how many skater each team has on the ice, etc. The details of Dr. McCurdy's model can be found here: https://hockeyviz.com/txt/xg5 , though generally each stat website uses their own model. Importantly, who the players involved in this shot, either shooting it or attempting to save it, or setting it up, are not part of the xG calculation. So an Alexander Ovechkin slapshot set up by Jonathan Huberdeau against Craig Anderson would have the same xG value if it were taken by me, set up by you, against prime Dominic Hasek, assuming all that changed was the players. Those shots obviously are not equally likely to result in goals, but that difference is part of the second interaction. The generation of xG is an interaction between <strong>all 10 skaters</strong>, since everyone has an assignment on defence, more viable transition outlets makes breakouts easier, and everyone participates in cycling in the offensive zone, etc. Important skills in this interaction include forechecking, transitional passing/skating, and everything to do with skater defence.

The second interaction is between the shooter, setter (the player who would receive a primary assist if this shot were to result in a goal), and the goaltender, and can be measured by the difference between the expected goals and the actual goals. The stat GSAx (Goals Saved Above expected) from evolving-hockey.com is a good example of using xG to measure goaltending. Micah uses percent increase in the chance of a shot becoming a goal with a player as either the shooter, setter, or goaltender, with negative numbers signifying a decrease in goal probability vs. a league-average player. This interatcion is notoriously inconsistent and difficult to measure (goalies are voodoo and William Karlsson's 40-goal season has yet to be explained by either science or magic) Importantly, this interaction <strong>only involves the shooter, setter, and goalie</strong>. Also of note: since the NHL doesn't track who would have gotten a primary assist on non-goals, they are estimated based on hand-tracked data from the wonderful Corey Sznajder. The data is unfortunately incomplete, but as you read this Corey is probably tracking a game to make it less so. Corey has probably watched more hockey than anybody else on the planet.

Now let's look at Jesse:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYjR90OXoAIuA3i?format=png&amp;name=900x900" alt="FYjR90OXoAIuA3i?format=png&amp;name=900x900">

Jesse is a below-average setter and a woeful finisher, who shoots slightly more than the average forward (shootiness is a measure of how much a player shoots). His impact on the powerplay is fairly average and he's been seldom used on the penalty kill. He generates scoring chances at an elite rate and suppresses them at a very good one.

Some people ask "if Jesse's such a good player how come his career high in points is 36?". The answer is that Jesse is bad at the aspects of hockey that directly lead to goals <strong>for himself</strong> and primary assists, but extremely good at the other interaction, <strong>the one every player has to participate in.</strong>

Micah also helpfully provides some helpful stats on the impact of players on the forecheck and in transition, the Oilers' impacts are here:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/static/txt/bluelineTraversals/img/highlight/exits-highlight-EDM-2122.png" alt="exits-highlight-EDM-2122.png"><img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/static/txt/bluelineTraversals/img/highlight/entries-highlight-EDM-2122.png" alt="entries-highlight-EDM-2122.png">


Jesse's a solid forechecker and puck carrier out of his own end. While he doesn't throw many hits, he can use his size and reach to take away space in the neutral zone, which makes him one of the Oilers better forwards at denying opposing zone entries. He's strong in puck battles and steady as a puckhandler, using his size and strength to maintain control of the puck when pressured. He's not particularly great at entering the opposing zone, and isn't particularly aggressive on the forecheck. He's more like a centre in a lot of those situations, controlling the NZ and preventing rush chances, while allowing his teammates to aggressively chase down the puck. This fits very nicely with McDavid, who can use his utterly absurd speed to hound these puck carriers about as well as any player in the NHL. McDavid's speed in these spots is why the Oilers have typically paired McDavid with RNH or Drai, natural centres who can take the traditional centre role on the forecheck. Jesse with McDavid frees them up to drive their own lines. And speaking of Drai...

<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/isolate/2122/draisle95" alt="draisle95">

Leon's another guy the fancy stat crowd and traditionalists have argued over, with the Athletic's Dom Luszyczyzyn (pronounced loose-ch-shin) famously leaving him off of his Hart ballot the year he won it. His goal and point totals are incredible largely because he's one of the league's absolute best at turning xG into real G. But he's only good at generating those xG and his defence has been an issue for his whole career. Jesse solves both problems, generating chances for Drai to capitalize on and covering his weaknesses on the defensive end.

Jesse's rush defense has also helped a D corps that struggles mightily on that end. The Oilers really only have a couple good rush defenders. Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak help, but the rest of this corps is either very passive or inexperienced and vulnerable. Jesse's steadiness at F was a huge part of Edmonton's 5v5 defence this year finally reaching league average in spite of a D corps largely formed of offensively-minded players, cheap players, and bad decisions.

The Oilers don't need setting and finishing. They have two of the best of the league at those skills, along with other strong finishers like Evander Kane and Kailer Yamamoto, and another great setter in RNH. What they need is the xGs for those guys to turn into goals, and cover for their weaker defensive players. That's Jesse's skillset, making him a perfect fit in Oil country.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars 2022 à 16 h 32
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars 2022 à 14 h 55
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars 2022 à 14 h 38
Sujet: TDL 2021
Forum: Expansion Draft19 juill. 2021 à 1 h 49
Forum: Expansion Draft19 juill. 2021 à 1 h 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wholly_diver</b></div><div>MacDonald's minutes were so sheltered last year. He played great, but I would be surprised to see him thrive as a top pairing dman.

I have a question. If you are going for a kickass forward corp, why take GhostBear (who is a major risk) and leave JVR on the table? I know JVR's cap hit is higher, but only a bit and for two years. Plus he is still a fantastic forward.

To fill that GhostBear hole on the defense, you could choose Zadorov or de Haan instead of Subban and use Kinkaid as your backup. Or you could spend more money and swap Vanecek for Petterrson. Or you could hope to sign Ryan Suter, Ian Cole, Dougie Hamilton, or whoever you like best in free agency. Just a thought. This is interesting overall. I am a little surprised a forward-focused draft doesn't feature Tarasenko and/or Duchene as well. But I understand the cap hits are ridiculous.</div></div>

Yeah FA is probably the best option to fill out the D corps. The original version of this had Pettersson instead of ZAR and Henrique instead of Fleury, but ended up over the 2021 cap, and I felt like I needed a solid chunk for the RFA budget. I probably over-corrected on that front, though. MacDonald did play really easy minutes this year but on the other hand he absolutely slaughtered them, and his AHL numbers are impressive too. Sort of like that one college football team that went undefeated for 3 years straight because they played in an easy conference, it's tough to gauge where he is until he actually gets some competition. CDH is a good idea, too.

JVR definitely makes sense, yeah. At the time I was worried about the cap hit and the potential non-Ghost D corps, but in retrospect grabbing JVR and probably swapping out Domi for cap space would've made the team better.

Senko just feels like a risk Seattle doesn't need to take, given the injuries it's really possible it's a 7 mil cap hit for nothing, and Duchene's term kinda scares me.
Forum: Expansion Draft19 juill. 2021 à 0 h 8
First question: How are you signing Landeskog in this scenario? 7 million is not enough cap space, given that Evolving-hockey has him costing nearly 9 million and, as many have pointed out, the analytics don't count leadership.

The forward depth looks iffy compared to other options. It'd be pricier, but swapping McCann and Niederreiter in for Dermott and Bean could boost the middle-six considerably. Not grabbing Eberle also feels like a big miss, he's probably the best forward in the draft.

I don't love that D corps. I don't think it's possible to get a #1 dman in the expansion draft (which is a good argument for saving cap space to take a run at Hamilton or maybe even offer sheet Makar) Klef is solid if healthy but he's never been a star, and age has finally turned Giordano into just a solid defender instead of the two-way star of yesteryear. Given that he costs nearly 7 million dollars, it might be smarter to save the cap space to make a run at one in FA. Of course, that requires cap space, which brings me to the goaltending.

What the hell is that goaltending corps. Why do you have $21 million invested in 3 players, only one of which can provide value at a time. Why did you choose the opportunity to pay 10.5 million dollars for a goalie who's pedestrian regular seasons and massive cap hit left a solid team relying on weird playoff formats to even make the postseason. Martin Jones is one of the worst selections possible: a highly-paid goalie who is also quite possibly the worst in the entire NHL. Just let Bishop be the starter and draft a solid backup. You do not need Price and Jones more than you need 16 million dollars worth of free agents. That's nearly enough for Landeskog AND Hamilton.


That Duchene pick is smart, I definitely slept on him when I did mine, and Heinen is a great value pick given the options in Anaheim, but this is just really inefficient use of cap space.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2021 à 20 h 15
Alright, so the first problem I see here is basically the entire D corps. In terms of 3-year GAR from Even strength defence, this Oilers top-4 features the worst (Keith), third-worst (Barrie), and 10th-worst (Nurse) defensemen in the NHL. 75% of your top-4 being bottom-10 defensively is not good, especially when your two star forwards are the third-worst and fifth-worst defensive forwards in the league. Darcy Kuemper has got his work cut out for him.

The defensive woes can of course be overcome by strong enough offensive talent. Unfortunately, Keith's numbers are sub-replacement level and Nurse's 15.2 total GAR and Barrie's 14.1 put them in the vicinity of players like Michal Kempny, Erik Gustafsson, and Christian Djoos. Imagine a top-4 of Keith-Djoos and Gustafsson-Larsson, and I don't think you'll be all that impressed. Remarkably, GAR also has Larsson below replacement level due to godawful offensive impacts. I wouldn't go that far, Hockeyviz has him as more of a Hjalmarsson/Savard-level defender, and his GAR numbers are penalizing him for poor on-ice finishing, which, even with a 3-year sample, probably isn't his fault given how little he shoots. Regardless, this top-4 is optimistically 3 second-pair guys and a sub-replacement level guy, and even an above-average third pair isn't gonna salvage that blueline.

Up front is way, way better, but Yams and Haula are projected to cost 1 and 1.6 (roughly) million more than you gave them, which I don't see being available on this roster (Barrie's also projected to cost an extra 1.2 million, which is just one more excellent argument for not bringing him back)

That Arizona trade is one of the cleverest trades I've seen on this website, but the signings on this one do not add up.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2021 à 19 h 53
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2021 à 19 h 46
Forum: Armchair-GM10 juill. 2021 à 11 h 54
Definite points for boldness, I love ACGMs with no cap space whatsoever.

Trade 1: Points for a reasonable-ish Eichel trade. I dunno if it'd be the best offer available, and it certainly isn't fair value for the Sabres, but I could definitely see them taking it if nobody else wants to swap out a young star.

Trade 2: It hurts to say with how much I like Giordano, but I dunno if you can move him without paying the other team. He's been pretty much a league-average blueliner for the past two seasons making nearly 7 million for next year. Maybe you can cash in on rep, but still.

Trade 3: You can probably get a bit more for Monahan, yes he's a touch overpayed, but Evolving-hockey projects his market value as comparable to Alex Killorn or Cam Atkinson before factoring in his contract. I'd be real surprised if you couldn't get multiple picks back for him.

The lineup construction is really iffy. Do NOT put Hamilton on his weak side, doing that really hurts blueliners in transition, which is Dougie's main selling point. Whatever you do with him, keep him on the right side.

That second line is WEAK. Lindholm's a decent second-line center on the back of his shot, but Dube's an unimpressive third-liner and Pelletier is almost certainly not ready for a major role. Patrick Bacon's NHLe model estimates a point in the QMJHL as equivalent to approx. 1/9th of an NHL point, putting his pace last year in the Q as equivalent to a 12 or 13 point NHL season. Yes he's due for some improvement there, and maybe his forechecking can be a sizable value add, but betting on him as a 2nd liner is a real stretch to me. The third line is a lot stronger at every position, you'd probably want to switch them.

Anddersson probably shouldn't be on the top pair, given that Hockeyviz estimates him to provide 7% less offense and 6% less defense than an average blueliner, and Evolving-hockey had him as a sub-replacement level player last year. A return to the second pair might get him back to where he was in prior years, as yet another Chris Tanev.

The top-6 is strong if we swap the second and third lines, and Hamilton can carry the top pair while the rest of the D corps treads water. This teams pretty Bruins-like in a lot of ways, and they're probably still a tick behind Colorado or Vegas in the west, but they can definitely win a cup if Markstrom gets hot at the right time.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juill. 2021 à 20 h 52
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mediumyeet</b></div><div>Thanks for the input.

1. I think Foegle will get moved. All the rumours out there are that he wants a bigger role and I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that he won't return to Carolina. I think the price is fair given the scenario. I don't see any teams offering more than this. If someone does offer a 2nd then they take that instead but I don't think it's going to happen. I agree that he's a good player and I think someone will get a good value deal for him.

2. I'm not sold on Larsson either but I don't like the age of the other guys listed and Larsson is very strong defensively and adds some toughness to the back end. Quinn plays best with D partners that don't worry about offense. Larsson is similar to tanev in the good defensive numbers and bad offensive numbers.

3. Zadorov again adds some more toughness and physicality to the back end. I would prefer to dump Schmidt for a pick as well but I don't see it happening. I think Zadorov would be a solid partner for Rathbone albeit an expensive one for the 3rd pair. Nuitavara out of Florida would be another option here.

4. I'm sure Arizona wouldn't love to take Roussell back but I think most teams looking to take on almost 6mil cap hit are going to have to send some sort of cap back. Rooster is cheap in actual dollars owed and will be off the books in a year.

5. I also feel bad for McCabe lol. If it wasn't for the injury I think he would get term around 4mil but unfortunately he will likely have to take a 1yr deal to show he's good to go again. At least in Van he knows he has a chance to get lots of ice time. And you're right I would love to dump Myers but that is just too difficult to predict and I'm not interested in paying to get rid of him.

6. I'm not sold on Dubnyk either but they could really sign any backup in the 800-1mil range. Whoever their goalie coach wants.

I wouldn't mind not signing Larsson or getting Zadorov and just picking up some 1 year contracts to get them through the season and then hopefully the UFA D next season have some good players that make it there. Ideally Hampus Lindholm and Ryan Pulock.</div></div>

Good points, I will say

1. Even if Foegele leaves the Canes will probably be hunting another strong playdriver, it's just kind of their whole deal. Someone like Arturri Lehkonen would probably be a preferred replacement.

2. Larsson's 28, Pysyk's 29 and Savard's 30. Given that Mark and David are probably one or two year deals instead of a five-year one, there's probably less age-related risk going after them than Larsson.

3. Physicality is a means to an end, not an end unto itself. If a guy throws his weight around a lot but consistently makes his team worse while he's on the ice, that's an issue. Goals win games, shots and chances drive goals, physicality is just a way to drive shots and chances, and there's plenty of other ways to do that. It's a lot like speed: there are bad players who are physical just like there are bad players who skate fast, there are good players who are soft just like there are good players who are slow. There's no physicality quota you need to hit.

4. Fair point.

5. Tbh he'd get more TOI if he stayed in Buffalo, but Vancouver has the major advantage of not being a pit of infinite despair.

If the Isles manages to lose Pulock because of the Clutterbuck contract that would be so funny, especially after Lou won GM of the year.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juill. 2021 à 20 h 35
Congratulations on the best Duncan Keith trade I have seen on this website. I still probably wouldn't do it as Edmonton, I'd rather try to just dump the Neal deal since Keith'll probably be a pain to dump, what with the NMC and all, but at least it's about fair value. Beyond that:

1. I wouldn't put Hyman with McDavid. McJesus is the god of the rush, the breakaway, and the array of dangerous chances that a team can generate off of controlled entries, while Hyman belongs to the heretical sect of the forecheck, the cycle, and the dreaded dump and chase. I get the theory of Hyman's playdriving keeping McDavid in the offensive zone, but he's probably better used to try and help another line drive play, given that the bottom-6 is still looking pretty ugly.
2. Erik Haula is not the player he was in Vegas. His defence has fallen off hard, and Evolving-hockey has him as a sub-replacement player over the last 2 years.
3. Cogliano's a really clever add, I don't think he can salvage Haula and Kassian on the third line, but him, Hyman, and ideally someone with a bit of finish could be a really solid line.
4. That's a lot to give up for a player that might be completely done. Even if Senko's healthy, to be worth Puljujarvi he'd probably have to return to his 2017-18 form, which seems like a really optimistic bet. Not necessarily impossible, but I'd probably just keep Jesse.

Overall, this team is still really shallow, 2/3 of the bottom-6 is replacement level or worse, the D corps is still below-average with Bear having to carry the boat anchor that is Duncan Keith, and with no first rounder, no cap and one of their best young players gone, there isn't exactly a clear path for improvement.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juill. 2021 à 20 h 12
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheWhiteWhale</b></div><div>My opinion here is I’m willing to move eberle for picks IF we get better than fair value that keeps the window open if we’re gonna lose him regardless and can sign Palmieri at a lower cap hit to replace nothing against eberle I like him a ton on the second line but I just don’t see a first line impact coming next season and still has a bunch of value I don’t want to lose for nothing</div></div>

The models are a bit divided on Eberle, Hockeyviz thinks he's a star, Evolving-hockey's GAR has him 91st among forwards over the past 2 seasons (fringe top-line). I'd say solid top line is a fair assessment for right now. He is 31, so some falloff is definitely in the cards, but I'd say he's likelier to be a top-line caliber player next year than Tarasenko in terms of overall value.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles777</b></div><div>I don't think signing Palmieri for 4-5 years makes sense. Last week I looked up tweets on Isles fans reactions to the Andrew Ladd contract and you'd be surprised how many "great AAV, a bit too much term. Not bad for a top line winger" comments lol.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheWhiteWhale</b></div><div>Yeah that’s my concern too I remember the comments well.. I wouldn’t want him more than 4x4 which I don’t see happening.. hence eberle in a tarasenko trade makes prior to expansion most sense to me</div></div>

It's worth noting here that Palmieri will probably age pretty well. Even-strength defence ages better than any other skill, and that's what Palmieri is best at. He's due to lose some offense as he enters his 30s, but I'd be really surprised if he isn't worth 4 million dollars at age 34.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juill. 2021 à 20 h 4
Oh I love ultra-aggressive armchair GMs. So much fun to pick apart!

1. The Canes probably don't take that Foegele deal. Warren's an excellent play driver and forechecker that hockeyviz estimates as providing 12% more scoring chances than a league average player. MacEwan's not a terrible player, but he's a touch below average driving play and is a lot less established. The Canes really value chance generation and forechecking, I'd be surprised to see Foegele on the move at all.

2.You can totally do better than Larsson at his price point this offseason. His impacts are the standard Niklas Hjalmarsson special, excellent defensively, hurts his own team's offense nearly as much. Hjalmarsson and David Savard are both options for that available at &lt;2 million dollars this offseason, or for more value they could target Mark Pysyk, not quite as much defense as those three but he's an above average driver of offence and won't cost a thing.

3. Nate Schmidt was not good in Vancouver, below average defensively and average offensively. Nikita Zadorov is very bad, he's average defensively and abysmal defensively. A better idea would be to just get a pick for Schmidt (or not qualify Zadorov) and replace Zad with Hjalmarsson/Savard for some extra defence, and, somehow, extra offense too.

4. Schmaltz deal is interesting. I have no idea what the Coyotes' plans are right now, but I doubt they'd want to take Roussel back in that deal.

5. Poor Jake McCabe. I love the add, Jake's a great player on a bargain contract that will make whoever signs him very happy this offseason. But god do I feel bad about a scenario in which somehow leaves Buffalo and STILL finds himself on a pairing with a boat anchor that makes 3 times his salary. Surprised you didn't try to replace Myers, but I guess dumping that deal could be a headache.

6. Devan Dubnyk is extremely bad at this point in his career. Hockeyviz currently estimates that Dubnyk makes an average shot against him 14% more likely to be a goal. He and Martin Jones were so bad in San Jose that Patrick Bacon wrote a whole article about how goaltending is basically random UNLESS you manage to acquire a tandem as awful as Jones and Dubnyk. Sign somebody else. Anybody else.

As far as going all-in on the next couple of years goes, the top-9 is strong as long as Pearson rebounds defensively, but that right side is really iffy and I'm not sold on the goaltending. Sort of like the Leafs a couple years ago, actually. At least they won't have to face the Bruins until the finals?
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juill. 2021 à 19 h 35
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juill. 2021 à 19 h 26
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>joshelkin</b></div><div>All very fair points. Thanks for the comments. This offseason would definitely be the swing for the fences route. But I do think the Isles need to squeeze out a little more in order to get past the Tampa Bay's of the world. I said it a couple times above, the trade really comes down to Tarasenko's health. If the Isles doctors are confident, I feel like you have to pull the trigger.

As for Leddy, I had him as my Seattle pick most of the year. But I listened to a podcast that had Arthur Staple (Isles top beat guy/The Athletic) and he made points that talked me into keeping Leddy. He can eat 20-22 minutes a night, bring some level of offense, and speed into the lineup. The Isles haven't lost many games due to their defense over the past 3 years. So for my money, I thought Leddy could be the guy worth losing. But I'm not entirely sold on the options we have to replace him, versus someone like Eberle (if we lost him via expansion instead). Wahlstrom steps up. Can re-sign Palmieri with that money. Etc.</div></div>

Evolving-hockey's GAR has Leddy as the 91st-best defenseman offensively (does that make sense? He's 91st in OGAR) over the past 3 seasons, just behind Sean Walker, Robert Hagg, and Rasmus Ristolainen. UFA's ahead of him include Mike Reilly (51st), Michael Del Zotto (41st), and Alex Goligoski (29th). All three of those guys are also projected to cost less than 5.5 million per year. This feels like a case of forgetting what the other option is: losing Leddy for nothing would be bad, losing Leddy and signing a replacement is probably gonna add a bit of offense (if that's the priority, it should be) and save some precious cap for the re-sign Casey Cizikas fund.