For NJ, they would protect Subban over Butcher. And I think they would pay a 4th to protect Bastian and send Johnsson, Merkley, or Butcher instead

That's definitely an option.

We might send Byron over with picks instead of Allen but pretty good ED

For the Islanders I highly doubt we give up Bailey. I think we're more likely to allow Seattle to take Eberle if they also take someone like Hickey (and maybe we throw in a pick).

This was my main scenario before the playoffs, but it's becoming less likely as time goes.

Really? From an outsider pov, it looks like Eberle is more important to New York than Bailey.

They are similar in production, but Bailey is more versatile. Eberle literally has no other place in the lineup than on Barzal's wing, where honestly I think he hurts the line more than he helps. Bailey and Eberle have similar contracts that end in the same year, but Eberle is 500k more. I'd rather keep the Bailey-Nelson-Beauvillier line together and try to bring in a winger for Barzal or give Wahlstrom a better look.

Nylander is exempt per Scott Powers.