Andrew Ladd become useless as soon as he stopped producing offence. That's not the case with Hyman. If his offence to decline (somehow it's been climbing with age), he'd be the heartbeat of the 3rd line for years.

Book deals and all that is fine, but at the end of the day, this contract is his big ticket. I doubt he's a Leaf for $3.5M, when he'd get $4.5M pretty easily as a UFA.

It's not real easy for guys to walk away from $5M plus dollars over the term of a contract, no matter how much they want to stay.

I think he stays for a discount, just not that big of one

LOL.

Simmonds had 1.5 games there, and 1 of his 2 goals was on the PP.

Thornton looked alright for a game or 2, but the line looked about 100% better once Hyman found his way back. M & M point streaks started right around the time Thornton got injured.

Better goal scorer and it's harder to do. Prorate their seasons last year in junior and they were equal but since Robertson would have scored around 70 goals you'd have to give him the edge. Considering they are only a couple months apart you can't use age as an excuse. Robertson would be triple the value if he was with any other franchise. The anti leaf bias is as clear as day just hearing people say he's just an okay prospect while other guys he bested get hailed as potential franchise players.

The "If" is this season.

There is no "if" beginning next year. He'll 100% be in the Leafs top 9, that's part of the reason for getting so many 1 yr stopgaps (Vesey, Thornton, Boyd, etc.)

The only "if" next year will be if he's top 6 or 3rd line.

With the way the Leafs cap is, and them needing some offence from players other than the Big 4.

Robertson for under $1M for a few years is about as untouchable as it gets when it comes to prospects.

He was a 2nd round pick. But where he was drafted doesn't really matter.
He is a prospect for a win-now club....and if he is seen as future top-9, cheap winger...I'd say, bon voyage here

Compare his season to everyone else in the OHL last season. Prorate for missed games and then look at where he would have finished had he played the whole season. Then look at his age in comparison to other top guys. After all that if you don't see his value, you just don't want to.

He would be cheap because he's on his ELC, not because he's got a 3rd line ceiling.

Andrew Ladd became useless when he started to see his skills decline while younger players got better and then he becomes an expensive bottom 6 player. Giving Hyman 4 million can become a big problem very fast.

Just on the stat sheet. Matthews has dominated from game one and Hyman didn't really change anything, they just started going in. This is classic fan takes, correlating data that doesn't really have any evidence it's connected. Hyman certainly didn't hurt Matthews but it wasn't like he wasn't getting chances without him. He was they just weren't going in. I think Hyman gets credit for what Matthews does way too often. He's a grinder, a fantastic one but just a grinder.

He has the skillset to be a top 6 sniper not a top 9 depth guy. He was a 2nd round pick because he was the youngest player in his draft. Would have been top 10 had he been a couple days younger.

I understand that...but that is true for handful of other guys too.
He is a nice offensive tool, and hopefully for Leafs, his skating, his health and his defense allow them to utilize it.
A good prospect. But not an elite superstar-in-waiting.

Going into next season without their best forechecker, best PKer and two open spots in the top 6 would be a bigger problem immediately.

I generally agree with your line of thinking. I don't love the idea of large $$ commitments to players of Hyman's level or age.

But the guy wears so many hats for the Leafs. It's not like they can't just go out and sign Granlund for 2 years and not skip a beat.

Lately he's been 3-4min/game ahead of Tavares and Nylander in TOI. He's easily among their most important players.

Yeah and??? Junior is junior. Remember Yakupov? That's what I thought...

clearly you're the one who is biased. Robertson is a very good prospect and has 30 G upside but perfetti is on another level. Byron Bader's model has Robertson at 32% star probability while perfetti has a 63% star probability. Perfetti's IQ is truly elite and he has the potential to have a Kucherov like impact with his skillset and how he sees the ice.

Look at the other guys from his draft year. 2019 was a loaded draft class. No one can hold that against him.

Agree he has the skillset to be sniper, its the other parts of his game that make him a good prospect instead of a great one.

He's very solid defensively, he's relentless on the forecheck/puck pursuit, and despite a sloppy skating stride (which he's working on) he's still got good-great speed.

Leafs have a handful of solid offensive prospects. None of them project ahead of Robertson, and none of them project to be NHL ready anytime soon.

So again, for this current Leafs team, and the way they have structured their cap, Robertson is borderline untouchable.

Agreed, Robertson is what it would take to acquire rackell but the leafs won't and should not give him up considering his upside and the leafs cap crunch over the next few years.

Pronman from the Athletic had him at 58th for players under the age of 23 (in terms of potential).

55 Vasili Podkolzin RW Vancouver;
56 Dawson Mercer C New Jersey
57 Nils Lundkvist D NY Rangers
58 Nick Robertson LW Toronto
59 Dillon Dube LW Calgary
60 Ty Smith D New Jersey
61 Thomas Harley D Dallas
62 Nolan Patrick C Philadelphia

Some decent company in and around his ranking.

So as much as it seems like it's typical Leafs fans getting way to excited about a prospect, most people that cover prospects feel the same way.

I think guys scoring at a 52pt pace (over 82) over the last 3 seasons are a touch more than just a grinder.

Add that to the grinding/forechecking/PK skill/defensive abilities. It all combines to more than $3.5M per year.

That's awesome.
If my team, NJD, was atop the standings, was in win-now mode...and could win first cup in 54 years...I would be happy to trade Dawson Mercer (and I love Mercer).

Salary cap exists, and aside from Tavares the core is all under 27, so it's not like the contending window slams shut at the end of the season.

Goal is to build a team that can be contenders for multiple years, not just a few.

When Robertson scores 1 goal in 5 games and every leafs fan thinks he's the next ovechkin
Toronto has to add here.

I got it.

Me, I'd go for the cup, but contending sounds good too.

The more shots they get, the better the chance they actually pull it off.

I've waited 30+ years, I can wait a few more.

I don't disagree but there is still a smart price tag for what he does and if he wants more than that, he quickly becomes a detriment to the cap.