Not a chance Pully gets a first. I think a second is more like it.

Here's an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #33 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%. And that's with stretching the 14-25 category when there isn't a lot of evidence we should.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi's chances of becoming a top player? I'll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I'm not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn't written yet), and I'm ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old's who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O'Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became "top" players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you're left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse's 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I'm not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became "top" NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL. That translates to a #4 - 7 pick in an average draft. I'm not going to say he's worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don't think his ceiling is as high as those guys, but to posit that he's not worth an early 2nd is just plain ignorant of the facts.

If Holland is indeed asking for a late 1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why.

How typical. Ignore the facts presented and state your opinion as fact.

#LeafsFans

My favourite part of this post is after all that research you did, which showed you Puljujarvi is worth a pick #4 - #7, you claim it to be invalid and go back to an opinion. THAT is HILARIOUS.

In Liiga JP lead in SOG but didn't lead in goals or points, and that was against goalies that might not even be starters in the AHL. Are teams jumping at signing the players that finished higher than Puljujarvi in Liiga this season? Not so much. Weird. I've seen "value of draft picks" articles before and they're great when looking at odds. I love that stuff. I wish I could read hockey stats for a living cause I can get lost for days doing it. But, like you, I often negate the outcome of the research and stand by my opinion. In this case my opinion is Balcers and the DAL 2nd is as high as I would go to try Puljujarvi.

My favourite part of this post is after all that research you did, which showed you Puljujarvi is worth a pick #4 - #7, you claim it to be invalid and go back to an opinion. THAT is HILARIOUS.

In Liiga JP lead in SOG but didn't lead in goals or points, and that was against goalies that might not even be starters in the AHL. Are teams jumping at signing the players that finished higher than Puljujarvi in Liiga this season? Not so much. Weird. I've seen "value of draft picks" articles before and they're great when looking at odds. I love that stuff. I wish I could read hockey stats for a living cause I can get lost for days doing it. But, like you, I often negate the outcome of the research and stand by my opinion. In this case my opinion is Balcers and the DAL 2nd is as high as I would go to try Puljujarvi.

So true bud. Very good job. He tries to say he is never biased and only stats facts, and then states his opinion. To be fair, his opinion was at least realistic, but it was still an opinion.

Reading comprehension is your friend. I never stated that "Puljujarvi is worth a pick #4 - #7", I showed the he has similar probability of hitting the top-6 floor as a 4-7 pick. And then I stated clearly that he doesn't have that value because his ceiling is lower.

If you can't understand the difference between floor and ceiling, or can't understand simple concepts expressed in middle English, that's on you.

MY reading comprehension is fine and I'm actually quite knowledgeable when it comes to hockey. You're trying to draw a grey line through your black and white statement because you feel called out, I get it. I love talking hockey, especially with other stats lovers like yourself, but when the insults start I get bored and walk. Peace out.

You're welcome to state your opinion, but don't present it as fact. That's false.

And to state your opinion as fact that somehow supersedes facts already established is willful ignorance.

Thats simply one type of fact. A more realistic one is comparing him to other trades. This trade deadline, Skeji was traded for a late first and Hall for a first and some decent prospects. Pageau cost a 1st and a 2nd. Don't tell me for a second that those guys are the same as Pully. Those guys are way better. Heck, Anistuto (I know I spelt his name wrong) only got 2 2nds. Is he better than Pully? 100% he is. Stop putting people down just because you think you are right. You are not always right.

No grey lines. The sentence was about probabilities of becoming a top-6 forward. You thought it was a prediction of his ceiling in comparison with this year's top-10, even though I specifically stated otherwise.

Knowledgeable my ass. You don't even understand middle English.

Thats simply one type of fact. A more realistic one is comparing him to other trades. This trade deadline, Skeji was traded for a late first and Hall for a first and some decent prospects. Pageau cost a 1st and a 2nd. Don't tell me for a second that those guys are the same as Pully. Those guys are way better. Heck, Anistuto (I know I spelt his name wrong) only got 2 2nds. Is he better than Pully? 100% he is. Stop putting people down just because you think you are right. You are not always right.

Um, trading for a rental is very different value from a guy under team control. That you don't already know this is astounding.

Honestly, you are so annoying. All you do is insult people. @TCMonkey was just pointing out possible flaws, and I agreed with him. I gave you other facts, and you don't even acknowledge it. You are so high headed, you think you are always right. News flash: you're not. Just accept that fact, and people won't hate you for it.

You are ignoring most of the facts. What about Skeji or Anistoutho? Literrally, those guys are a lot better than Pully. Pully has not been able to crack the nhl. Those 2 are very good. You would know with Anistotho, being an oilers fan.

Never heard of those guys.

I wasn't even replying to you. If you find me annoying then don't follow me around the internet.

No grey lines. The sentence was about probabilities of becoming a top-6 forward. You thought it was a prediction of his ceiling in comparison with this year's top-10, even though I specifically stated otherwise.

Knowledgeable my ass. You don't even understand middle English.

I'm guessing "you don't even understand Middle English" is a devastating insult on your Larper blog? How many damage points should I dock myself?

You were before.

Never heard of those guys.

Good chat guys! Glad we all love hockey!