You wouldnt rather use the CBO on Gourde?

Why r u trading sergachev. He has had a great year

Cap space, in this scenario.

I think his shooting % and PDO are pretty low iirc.

Julien BriseBois wouldn't use a CBO on Tyler Johnson if there was one. He'd use it on Yanni Gourde. Doubt Palat would waive it will be Killorn since he has a 20 team trade list come this summer.

How can you say for certain they'd pick Gourde over Johnson to CBO?

Because Johnson means more to Tampa then Gourde does this coming from a person that watches them on a daily basis as a season ticket holder. Gourde is already relegated to 3rd line duties. Johnson brings far more to Tampa then Gourde does that's for sure. Don't see BriseBois using a CBO on Johnson over Gourde that's just my personal feeling and could be wrong just don't see it though.

Fair enough. I guess if he is being related then it may be more likely.

Gourde is the 100% guaranteed CBO if there is one. If there are no CBO's then there is a problem and they definitely will need to get creative so as long as their is a CBO, they'll should be fine. My gut says their RFA's will take short term cheap contracts to make it work. Just like every other player did on the team at one point. If they don't want to then they are gone. Its that easy.

Ya they probably will CBO Gourde, but imo they should pick Johnson. But both are CBO worthy.

Couple of points:

1. Johnson has a ton of trade value, and there are ways to get people to waive their no-trade clauses (benching, demotions, etc. Use the same logic for Gourde, Palat, and Killorn as well) Guys want no trades to get control over the situation and be part of the process, not necessarily to stop a trade (unless they are a very seasoned veteran, whereas well-run teams "defer" to the vet with the clause). I suspect that if JBB needs to move Johnson, he'll find it pretty easy, with a pretty good return.

2. Trading Sergachev may be counter-productive. While his numbers aren't earth-shattering, he was easily the 2nd best Dman overall for TBL. He was second on the team in dmen points (34), 3rd in TOI (:20 behind McDonagh), 2nd in hits, 2nd (overall and amongst dmen) in blocks. He was sheltered in the same fashion that Hedman was (Hedman and Sergachev both had a 54/46 Ozone/Dzone start split). He also generated offensive chances at the same rate as Hedman (who played 4 fewer games than Sergachev, so the numbers are skewed). Doing this with 2nd PP unit time (he was #2 dman on the team in PP time behind Hedman), and on the 2nd unit for PK (so playing all situations). All of this while only being 21 years old, which means he's got 6+ years before he is near his peak development. For teams that need to balance now vs future, Sergachev is a no brainer at 4.5-5.5mm x 4-5 years.

3. If you get a CBO, the only real candidate is Gourde, as his trade value isn't near his contract value. Johnson, Palat, and Killorn would return close to their trade values (though, no one is giving TBL full value on any trade, since everyone knows what kind of position they are in).

4. My changes would be trade Johnson (who should return a low-level 1st rounder+), Palat (the trade listed above is good value), and CBO Gourde, which would free up 15.466mm in cap space. Give Gourde's money to Sergachev. Keep the rest of your signings. In a couple of years, Shattenkirk will move on, leaving room for Foote.

Oh I definitely do think Sergachev is a great player. A #2/3 d man as of now. If the Lighting can trade Johnson, they definitely should.

Not sure there is any evidence to prove why you'd pick Johnson over Gourde though. Virtually every category suggests Gourde is the better option to buyout. Not Johnson. Is it just because you don't like Johnson?

I think that they would buyout Palat and trade Killorn. Palat's contract is a lot shorter, so the actual cost would be a lot less to buyout.
Killorn's contract is the only one that changes to a MNTC this summer.

Gourde has a pretty low shooting % and PDO this season iirc. His play driving isn't too bad though.