No idea about the value, i kinda doubt Minny takes this. But I love this Idea!

Would love to see a line of Aho - EStaal - Williams

You guys need a top goalie more then anything

Of course we do, but if you look deeper into it, Canes goaltending stats are better than they were last year and we made it to the ECF. I deffinetly agree with you, but IMO i think we will end the season with the same duo.

If the Canes do make a trade, I think the only viable option for us would be Lehner.

Mrazek and Reimer have been playing fairly well this year. They're one of the better duos so far this season

I actually disagree with this, the more I’ve looked at the underlying numbers. While Mrazek & Reimer haven’t been as consistent as you’d like, you can say the reminder of the league this year outside of a few elite guys (including Lehner). The Canes tandem has actually ranked as the #6 in the league in terms of combined Goals Above Expectation.

I think the Canes are actually approaching this as taking action to reduce the quality of chances the Canes are giving up. If you believe in the % of quality chances given up as a percent of total chances - Canes rank as last in the league.

Sure up the LHD spot next to Pesce, reduce quality chances, allow goalies to take care of the rest, and that is the plan...

The problem lies in Reimer and Mrazek are both good backups but neither should be a #1 goaltender. Canes rank last in the league regarding % of quality chances because of defense, that's not a goaltender stat. Canes have good defense and there is no argument as they are at the bottom of the league in shots against #29, but they rank #24 in goals against and that gap suggests the defense is playing extremely well, its the goaltending that's not keeping up.

I don’t agree with this - both Goalies are performing above expected goal expectations. The defense is giving up the most quality chances as a percent of of total chances. To me - that says the Goalies are bailing out the defense the best they can.

Doubt the Canes trade for a Goalie. Bet they trade for a solid LHD man to slot beside Pesce on the second pair.

I'm not 100% sure where you (and I guess @ChiHawk) are getting your data. BUT I'm also not arrogant (try not to be any way) to suggest that my source is 100% right 100% of the time and no one else's sources are. Below is the link for high danger changes as a % that actually go in the net to score goals. CAR is 11th worst (tied for 10th) in the NHL at 9.1% of all high danger chances end up being goals. (DET obviously is the worst!) This makes sense too, right? The SV% for Reimer/Mrazek are sub par because they don't face a ton of shots.

For the record I can understand someone's position that SV% is skewed due to CAR's D being amazing and their Gs getting less shots. I personally don't agree with that position, but I can understand the thought behind it.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020.html

I use Charting Hockey advanced analytics

I'm looking at the analytics and can't see why they don't suggest Carolina has a very stout defense but not great goaltending. Every stat I'm looking at says the goaltending is average at best.

I would personally replace Gardiner with TvR, but I think the value isn't too far off.
Would like a Wild fan's opinion of course.

Post a link? I'm always curious to see different analytical sources. I really like Natrual stick for Individual stats when comparing to different linemmates too.

Look at the tandems Tab - analyzes expected goals allowed vs actual goals allowed by both goalies in a Tandem;

https://www.chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-goalie-charts/

The quality chances is under paywall - figuring out how to send.

I'm seeing that too. I'm also seeing that their D is ranked #1 in the NHL when it comes to shot suppression in 5V5 situations.

While we're on a CAR post. CAR fans. Would you do a MEGA trade with Saad, Lehner, and Crow? I just see how stacked CAR is both currently AND for their future. The future is stacked in 4 different ways too! 1.) Their long term contracts are AMAZING Aho, Turbo, Slavin, Pesce...they're all great contracts. 2.) CAR has young HIGH contributing talent like Svech, Necas 3.) CAR also has a pretty stacked farm system with young NHL studs like Bean, Bokk, Suzuki all developing 4.) CAR has multiple 1st AND 2nd round picks this year.

Why not go for it this year? If not this year...when do you go for it?

Added quality % link...tab CA vs QPSa. Basically means we limit chances at the best rate in the league, BUT the chances we give up are quality chances at the highest %.

https://www.chartinghockey.ca/daily-charts/daily-team-charts/

No no no...this is the fallacy when you only look at quantitative stats not qualitative stats. The Canes are the best in the league in not giving up quantity, but the shots they have been giving up have been high danger quality shots. You have to dig further. Our 2nd and 3rd pairing defense has been getting gutted by allowing odd man rushes and wide open shots in the slot and at the net.

The Canes will add a defenseman to slot next to Pesce (maybe Jonas Brodin from Wild) and not a Goalie.

No I agree with you on the overall shot vs quality shot. CAR is the best in the league in just plain old shots against. CAR is the 6th best in the league for quality shots against. (Per Hockey Reference) SO THEN...why is it that they're tied for 10th....worst...team in % of those High Danger shots actually going in the net and turning into goals. It's because their goaltending is poor.

Send link for your analytics

Sure, It's the same link. As you scroll about half way down there are sortable columns. Go to the Team Analytics and you can click on the top row to sort. Example...Click on the very last column HDCO% and it'll sort highest to lowest.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020.html

***EDIT*** At first I got confused by the whole opponent thing, but it makes sense when you start looking at who CAR is around. They're near the TORs, PITs, DETs, OTTs, SJSs. All teams with defensive or goalie issues. They're NOT near the BOSs, STLs, NYIs, WASs. Other quality defensive teams. That's how we can zero in on the goalie position, because it's not CARs defense.

Here is my issue with this...this stat actually tells me there are a handful of really good teams at HDCO% (STL, WPG, BOS, NYI, and DAL) then there are a handful of really bad teams (MTL, SJS, MIN, and DET). The middle is all relatively the same, teams 6-27 are all within one deviation from the mean, basically saying there is not a significant difference between those 23 teams. You didn’t mention that LAKs are #8 in this stat, better than WAS.

I just don’t get the point that the Goalies have to be the issue when looking at this stat. How do you go from this stat to saying to has to be the goalies and not the defense?

That's a very fair question. To me it's...these teams have "back end issues" and we need to dig further into why each team is where they're at.

TOR is a good team and Freddie Anderson is a good goalie. They have a TERRIBLE defense. Too many offensive Dmen...Too many injuries...not a good backup goalie...etc...
SJS has Martin Jones. He's the worst starting goalie in the NHL.
NSH has a very good Defense. We saw that CAR was the 6th best in High Danger Shots allowed. NSH is right with them at 9th best. Pekka Rinne STINKS this year. So we know for NSH specifically it's because of the goalie position that NSH is 5th worst in HDCO%.
PIT is a good team. #2 in the Metro. why are they next to CAR in this category? I can tell you it's NOT Jarry and his 2.12 GAA and .930 SV%. It's their defense.

Kinda to summarize, we need to look at the backend...THEN determine what's the reason. CAR's defense is one of if not the single best D in the NHL. That leaves the goalie position.

***EDIT*** Let's look at this another way! Why is CAR and CHI soo close together? 9.1% vs 8.7%. They're different reasons. CHI has GREAT goalies, but a TERRIBLE very injured defense. They let up the 2nd most shot against and let up the MOST high danger chances over ANY NHL team. So why is their HDCO% better than CAR's? Lehner and Crow are saving their behinds.

So why do both Mrazek and Reimer both have positive numbers in goals allowed vs expectation?

My position is when digging into it further, the advanced analytics tell a story that the Canes team defense has NOT played up to par with expectations this season so far. Mrazek and Reimer both have won games while standing on their heads. They have both been inconsistent, but overall they have supported the team and in some cases been the reason they won.

*edited - my ‘eye test’ tells me the same thing*

When you tear into the defensive stats from an individual basis, two defenseman have been stellar (Slavin, Hamilton), while Pesce has only been average. However, Pesce has been paired with two underperforming defensive partners in Edmundson and Gardiner - both of which have drastically underperformed in relation to their defensive metrics. The only positive for Gardiner has been his underlying offensive numbers have been great (and he’s been ‘unlucky’).

I suspect the Canes (and the rumors out there support this) t believe they need to support the Goalies with another stabilizing top 4 defensive partner for Pesce. Rumors out there regarding Alec Martinez and Jones Brodin support this.

I think we both try to use analytics in combination with the eye test. It's not like I've seen Mrazek completely fall apart for a 7 goal game. BUT when you say the defense hasn't played up to par. I see CAR being #1 in the NHL in shots allowed. I see CAR as #6 best defense in the NHL in allowing high danger opportunities. It's difficult to say (IMO) that's not "up to par." That's the sign of an amazing defense.

I hear the rumors too. I've also heard Bowman isn't looking to trade anyone and that he's actually looking to acquire. WHY??? I have no clue, but that's what I hear. I'm not suggesting your wrong on the rumors and we're 100% allowed to have different opinions. I personally don't think adding a Dman is going to help CAR. It's not really like they can get any better in shots allowed and that wouldn't solve their real problem.

the west is terrible and the Hawks are that far out...I get possibly adding IF it’s a smart add.

It’s a good discussion, I just know what I see - I go to all the home games, and watch every away game on TV. I have been underwhelmed by the team defense outside of Slavin, Hamilton and Pesce. With exception in only a handful of games, I’ve been pleasantly surprised by what Mrazek and Reimer have done.

Stats and analytics aside, I think the Canes would be smart to use their assets where they might get the most benefit, and I just don’t see the available Goalies out there (I’m not sure Lehner is even available) as a vast improvement over the guys we have. However, I see a guy like Brodin as a vast improvement defensively over the other bottom 3-4 guys we have today.

The West is not terrible, the Pacific isn't as strong as the central (Col, Dallas, St Louis), but overall, no division is "terrible" in today's league with so much parity.

Canes have one of the strongest defenses in the league. Can every team improve even in areas of strength? Of course but this is hardly a weak spot and all the stats support this. Reimer has not been horrible, very middle of the road based on SV % which is the best way to evaluate a goalie. At .917 it is indeed respectable. Mrazek on the other hand at .906 is a middle of the road backup. The point is, name a recent team that won a cup that didn't have outstanding goaltending. Maybe reimer gets hot in the playoffs and can take you there? If Lehner was available, top 6 in the league and seeing an average of 38 shots a game, he would be the difference between Carolina going the distance and not. Not saying Lehner is the guy but somebody like that of that ability. I don't think anyone would argue Lehner is a big upgrade to Reimer.

To the original point, can you take an area of strength (defense) and make it better? Of course, but I believe Carolina already has a good enough defense to win a cup. I think they can add some forward gritty type of player depth and a top 10 goaltender and be a cup favorite before adding more defense.