I don’t think L.A does that deal without a minimum of a 2nd round pick coming back.

Fair enough

My honest opinion is as follows:

1. Leafs do not trade for Martinez because Ceci is under-rated and actually better than Martinez by himself and would be crazy to also give up Johnsson and 4th round pick. Ceci actually developing under Sheldon Keefe to be an effective shutdown defenceman popular to CapFriendly viewer comments.
2.Leafs do not trade Barrie for draft picks because Barrie has turned his game around under Sheldon Keefe and is now on fire and Leafs need him bigtime going forward and actually might entertain resigning him as a UFA after season if his price is reasonable.

The value is close (probably need to upgrade the pick a bit) and LAK likely wants to move on Martinez, but I take this deal with a grain of salt. LAK's defense looks pretty good by the numbers, but Martinez looks like he's been a little lucky. He's also been playing with Doughty (still very good) and Sean Walker (having a breakout season with better numbers than Martinez). His defensive pairing stats and relative stats make him look like a player getting carried by his teammates. If he works well with Rielly or Muzzin that could be fine. But if he doesn't gel with those two, this trade could wind up not only a disaster but the reason TOR can't make a real bid for an elite FA defenseman like Pietrangelo.

I do think Martinez is better then ceci but I will agree not sure this makes the leafs that much better I was just spit balling

By every known measure, Ceci is the worst performing regular defenseman on the Maple Leafs roster. He absolutely cannot hang in the top-4 role he was given and is being paid about 2.5m too much. If you get a chance to upgrade the TOR blueline he is easily the first person to go.

You have got to be kidding. A 32 year old defenceman for a top 6 forward, with speed on a 4 year contract is a landslide win.

The only person to go and only if it's for a fair price but at the same time it's not that huge of a deal. He's not bad on the 3rd pair.

I was going to say make that a 2nd too

Martinez isn't even good

Hope you are also not believing all these negative opinions on Ceci obtained from the so called expert media types who watched him play last year with the Senators. The actual fact is Ceci is a solid 4th, 5th or 6th pairing defenceman on the Leafs. He was played in a 1rst and 2nd pairing defence role on the absolutely terrible Ottawa Senators where he became a whipping boy and reputation unfairly damaged by the Ottawa media. The reality is that he is now on a much better Maple Leafs team and put into a 4th, 5th or 6th pair defenseman role where he is succeeding and being protected and properly coached for the first time in his career by Sheldon Keefe. I would not be totally surprised if Leafs resign him for something around $3,000,000 per year after season depending on whether they resign Muzzen and Barrie.

I've been one of the most vocal critics of Ceci on this forum and he deserves every word. His Corsi, Fenwick, expected goals, actual points are all the worst among Toronto defensemen with more than 20 starts, at all of actual, per-60, and relative rates. He's absolutely terrible in the top-4 role he's paid for. The only stat he has on a regular is a +9 compared to Dermott's +8, but even then Dermott has better possession numbers and 8 points in half as many games. He's doing all this while getting carried by Rielly and constantly bailed out by Andersen, who has a wholly unsustainable .930 sv% when Ceci is on the ice. Ceci is the kind of player you sign to a sub-2m contract, shelter minutes, and use as a PK specialist and that's it. Any conception that he's not abjectly the worst defenseman on that team and the worst player in this LAK trade proposal is delusional. He's a negative asset, especially at his cap hit. The only thing TOR should give a **** about in that trade is whether they want to chase a big ticket FA defenseman.

I think calling Johnsson a top 6 forward is charitable. He has a couple more years of development left so he could get there, but he's pretty clearly a middle-6 guy who's solid on a second line but you'd really like to anchor your third line. His career high is 43 points and he's projecting to deliver the same kind of performance this season.

It is clear to me that you are overvaluing Martinez and undervaluing Barrie. I really don't understand it. There is no way the Leafs take a gamble on a player who is not a clear upgrade over Ceci and include Andreas Johnsson as part of that deal. Like, that just does not make any logical sense. Then, as icing on the cake, you trade Tyson Barrie, who is having something of a resurgence under our new head coach, for basically a whole lot of nothing. I am going to add that you don't make these moves to make room for a player (Sandin), if the return you are getting is not fair and helpful to your team.

There are very few 3rd line forward who score 40+ points. 40+ is generally 2nd line production.

The production you want for a second line guy on a championship team is 50-65, at least. Look at the best teams in the league. All of them that you would consider "balanced" have second liners projecting for 55+ points. St Louis has Perron (PPG), ROR (projects 70), Schwartz (projects 70), Schenn (projects 65), and Tarasenko (PPG before injury) in their top six. Tampa's top 6 is all projecting 60+. Same with Toronto, Colorado, Vegas. Boston doesn't have a bunch of 60 point scorers but their reputation is top-heavy and they'll have two players easily over 100 points on the season.

The game isn't a low and slow anymore. Scoring is up, games are faster, and a top-6 player has to hit that 50 point mark to have some legitimacy. Johnsson is exactly the guy you want as your 7th forward if you're a playoff team. He can play up and won't weigh down your top minutes guys if you have an injury, but he just doesn't produce enough to rely on him in a top-6 deployment for 100 games.

Leafs are razor thin on with NHL Dman depth, and here is another trade where the Leaf trade two RHD and just get one in return.. Again this fascination that other teams Dmen, are so much better than the Leaf Dmen.

Why do so many think it makes any difference what Ceci gets paid. Doesn't matter at this point Until Ceci, or Barrie can be replaced be a someone better, his cap is totally a non factor.

Last season when he finally made it into the top 6 he played at 50+ point pace. He's been snake bitten this year and is still on a 41 point pace over a full season. And he has been hurt since the offence has really turned it on. He's a top 6 forward. Everyone outside of Leaf fans though don't want to admit TO has so many good forwards. These guys were adamant that Marner was made by Tavares and wouldn't replicate his 94 point season, he is and doing with it Matthews now. No one wanted to admit Nylander is elite, he is. No one wants to admit that Kapanen and Johnsson would he too 6 forwards almost anywhere. Because it hurts their desire for TO to he terrible.