would just match on Johnson and trade him then... He's worth more than a second...

Leafs match.

Offersheets are not a vacuum. It's not like the leafs are prevented from making moves after matching. They can easily match and make other moves to save them self call it 500K of cap space, that is not hard.

Get into the 4.1 mil range where the comp is a 1st and 3rd and then youre talking.

cant trade for 12 months, but yeah you can match and make another move easily

you can't trade someone after an offersheet match? Never heard of that before. Interesting.

https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-faq

3rd line from the bottom

Well if they match Johnsson then they could just offer sheet Kapanen a similar offer and they wouldn't be able to sign him. They'll have roughly 13M in cap space at the end of the year, probably trade away Brown and Hyman, so 17.3M. They'll sign Marner to 10M probably, so 7.3M cap space. IF Toronto matches Johnsson 3.4M they've got 3.9M to sign Kapanen and still got 5 empty roster spots which at minimum salary would add up to 3.75M leaving 0.25M to sign Kapanen.

Leafs fans have this dream that somebody will take Zaitsev's contract, not likely to happen. And Marleau has NMC and I can't see him waiving his chance to win a cup to help Dubas sign Kapanen/Johnsson.

Leafs have options.

Heck here's an overpayment of at least 4 mil for kap AJ and Marner combined that I still made work without moving Marleau, which opens up their cap the year after to replace Kadri

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1066995

So like I said offersheets are not a vacuum.

You have to realize that with offersheets, that for one the player has to agree to it, so you have to offer something that really entices the player to sign it. 3.5ish mil to go to the ducks isn't it. And two, you have to offer something that would be more valuable to the leafs than their ability to find that cap space. Aka signing AJ or kap for 3.5 ish mil might be an extra mil on top of what they planned to sign them for, but they can easily go out and make 1 Mil of cap space that would cost them less than the loss of AJ or kap

So offersheets have to overpay the player and the other team. This isn't it.

I have exactly the same two first-round picks on my mid-season draft -- wonder where we'll be when the final rankings come out.

Ducks have three picks in the first 36 or so this year -- make that Islanders' first in 2020. And don't be piggy -- be satisfied with the first!

You forgot my dark-horse for next year's Calder -- Maxime Comtois.

Okay, yes if the Leafs want to make a horrible trade just to protect Kapanen and Johnsson it could work. But that would be a poor decision by the organization.

The point is what the Leafs would have to sacrifice in keeping Kapanen or Johnsson would be more than the sacrifice of losing one of those players for a 2nd.
Don't see the Leafs being able to swing a quality deal that can give them enough cap space.

Also who doesn't want to play in Anaheim? Some of the best weather in the league, beach life, historically successful organization.

I never said anaheim is a bad place to play, read the next part carefully. You have to overpay the player well above and beyond what they reasonable expect to get from the leafs . AJ at 3.4 mil might be like 250k above what he might make with the leafs. That is flat out not enough to entice the player AND the team. The 2nd isnt enough of a return to offset the loss of AJ vs making like 250K of room. The example i showed had kap and AJ at 5 mil AND marner at 12 mil, so yes that's obviously going to hurt, but that's not the realistic. AJ at 3.4 wouldnt be that hard to fit in

Meet the criteria i laid out and then youre talking.

1. Overpay the player to get them to sign
2. entice the leafs to let them walk.

those are the two criteria. You have offered a 3.4x4 contract, which does not work. Get in to the 1st and a 3rd draft pick range and then it's a consideration for the player and the team.

Yea but your example has Zaitsev and Kadri getting moved. I don't see any team taking Zaitsev off Toronto's books, and Toronto is more likely to let Johnsson or Kapanen leave than trade Kadri and they would be beyond stupid to trade away 2 1sts to keep Kapanen or Johnsson. Without moving Zaitsev and Kadri moved that's 7M+ to your model, assume Marner only makes 10M, 5M+ over, pay Kapanen 3M, you have 2M in space. And that's where another team, i.e. Anaheim, offer sheets Johnsson for 3.2M because Toronto cannot afford to keep him. Johnsson isn't making more than 2M in Toronto because they can't afford more than that, so Anaheim's offer is actually 1.2M more than what he'd be offered in Toronto.

2 1sts and Kadri is too much to give up for Johnsson or Kapanen. I agree you can't look at it in a vacuum and because you can't look at in a vacuum you have to realize what you're proposing is giving up far more assets to keep one of two assets that are a 1/4 of the value of the proposed sacrifice. Toronto is in a cap bind, and the least painful answer is to lose one of Johnsson or Kapanen for a 2nd.

Geez you're dense. It's clearly an aboslute extreme case I presented with probably 4 to 5 mil of overpayment easily, and garbage trades to just remove the player. Also it's more like a 1st and Kadri since they would easily get back a 1st for Kadri, and even at that, I'm being generous with every trade I made, plus they'd have cap space open up when Marleau is gone to fill the void.

Up your offer, or leafs match the one you signed for under 4mil, and trade the other one for a 1st, which would be pretty easy to do. They will not let either one walk for a second.

Yea I'm saying you're wrong and the Leafs don't have enough leverage cap wise to pull off what you want them to do. Why would someone trade a 1st for one of them when they can get them for a 2nd and Toronto has no ability to match the offer?

Because they can match at the values you're tossing out. You're literally tossing out contracts that most people think are reasonable for the leafs to sign them to and make it work. Offersheets have to be more than that.

Up your offer and then it's reasonable for the ducks to actually get one of them. Not sure what is so difficult to understand, play around for 5 minutes with the leafs and those 3.4ish contracts are easy to make work.

But they can't actually match the offers cuz they wouldn't have the cap space every model out there that has the Leafs keeping them has them right up against the cap with no scratches. AND in those models they either have Marner getting paid to little, Kap and Johnsson getting paid to little, or some unrealistic scenario where the Leafs get rid of Zaitsev, Kadri, or Nylander.

The Leafs aren't going to get rid of Kadri or Nylander to keep Kap or Johnsson because no team is going to offer them a good deal when they know the Leafs are up against it. And nobody wants to pay a 6th Dman 4.5M for the next 5 years. So you can say they're able to match but the scenarios that would allow them to match are far more unlikely and costly than losing one of those two players for a 2nd.

Teams can go over the cap and then make other moves. Neither of them are walking for a second.

It flat out is not enough to entice the player to even sign, you realise the player actually has to agree to it right? It flat out is not enough to get the player to sign, let a lone get the team to let the player walk.

Offer more. Get that through your thick skull.

A smart GM isn't going to put themselves into a situation where they are 3M+ above the cap with no immediate avenue to shed that cap. If they did that they'd be in an even worse situation because they'd be in a do or die situation where they have to give up one of Kadri, Nylander, or Zaitsev. So teams could get Kadri and Nylander for pennies on the dollar and demand a king's ransom to take on Zaitsev because if the Leafs don't shed that cap they'll get cap penalties for the following year and probably lose any cap relief they get from it.

Either player would be in a better situation in Anaheim because they'd have a solidified spot on the top 6, they'd be getting paid more for longer, and for a bonus, Anaheim is way nicer than Toronto. Plus it doesn't really matter because Toronto can't afford to keep both unless one of them wants to make next to nothing for another year.

It's only gonna take a 2nd to get either one, so I don't have to offer more.

Not sure how you can say anaheim is waaaaay nicer than Toronto. That's just an idiotic americanized view of Toronto/Canada. Toronto is consistently ranked as one of the top cities in the world to live in, just like LA, yes your weather is better in the winter, but players are off after the playoffs and can travel, and our team is better, and yours is getting old.. Players want to win.

Offersheets are not vacuum. When thinking about offersheets , you need to provide surplus value to the player vs what the team can offer right now, most understand that part, but you havent done that with a 4x3.4 offer. $3.4 mil is probably 2-300k off where they sign on a 2 year deal with the leafs. You also have to provide surplus value to the team vs the cost of finding that extra $ if the team matches. A second round pick in return for either of those players is terrible, so the leafs would match and go find cap space by moving other pieces.


$3.4 mil as an offersheet doesnt even get you Kap/AJs phone number. Plus youre offering $3.4mil by 4 years. Most think that is ballpark AAV for a deal from the leafs on a 2 year. If you want longer term, up the $.

I'm not disagreeing that you can sign them to an offersheet but at least make it realistic. Do like $5x5 or $4.5x3. $3.4x4 is a joke.

I'm from Winnipeg. And I have been to both cities... I mean you can't really compare the two. Most people would much rather live in a beach city like Anaheim than Toronto. And actually, Anaheim is one of the youngest rosters in the league, Getzlaf and Perry have two years left and are still good players, not worth their contracts, but both still drive play. Kesler and Eaves' bodies are done and will in all likelihood be on LTIR next season. Ducks have a top 3 goalie in Gibson, a young quality Dcore, and a plethora of quality young forwards Terry, Jones, Steel, Kase, Comtois, Sprong, and Ritchie. Plus the Ducks are in a much poorer positioned division than Toronto, Sharks are going to face a quick decline with those old man contracts long-term, Oilers suck, Coyotes have been disappointing, Kings suck, Flames goaltending is a question mark, only real competition for the coming years will likely be Vegas and Canucks. Toronto has to deal with Boston, Tampa, Florida (if they get Panarin and Bobrovsky as speculated), Buffalo if their luck turns around.

I can agree with part of that point, the Ducks may have to offer 3.2AAV for 2 years instead.

okay so you offer 3.2 x 2 and so does every other leafs GM on here. 95% of the people on here feel that's a realistic number for the leafs to sign them at.

AKA other teams have to offer more for an offersheet

Yea except those Leafs GMs are usually clearing space through methods that are either incredibly unrealistic or just stupid. Toronto doesn't have the cap to keep both Johnsson and Kap without making crazy moves for a really low return like a Kadri or Nylander deal or a magical fairyland deal that sees Zaitsev getting traded. Other GMs aren't going to lineup to help the Leafs, if the Leafs want the cap space to sign Kap and Johnsson they're going to have to sell Nylander or Kadri for pennies on the dollar or add in some very valuable assets into a Zaitsev trade for a 7th rounder. Neither of those avenues is more appealing than losing Johnsson for a 2nd.