Would be awesome trade for the Canucks but idk if Toronto wants to take that much salary but I guess the Canucks are spending a bunch on Nylander. Are you basing this trade on Gardiner resigning or walking at end of the season?

In terms of value for the leafs, we might give you just Gardiner for that, and nothing else (prolly with extension tho).

When Tanev is actually healthy he's a good defensive dman one of the best I'm told

Only Connor McDavid has been on the ice for more 5v5 goals for over the last 2 years than Gardiner.

Toronto doesn't take that trade even BEFORE we consider Nylander. A middle-sixer whose peaked with trash Corsi and xG, a 2nd pair DFD and a bottom-sixer entering his prime is in no way an acceptable return for a guy tied for 0th in P/60 among defenceman, who put up a positive xGF% rel on an excellent team. Jake Gardiner is legitimately an elite defenceman and you traded him for scraps, even before we consider that Toronto is giving up Nylander here too.

That deal might be the worst serious trade idea I have seen on this site.

You and me should form #RetainGardiner on this site....ppl are sparing him to easily....

The salary really isn't an issue, the Leafs get SO much worse here.




No, no, no, you do not deal your best defenceman for guys who'd be depth pieces on a good team.



He hasn't played 82 games in a year in his career, so maybe he is, but I don't think he ever is or will be fully healthy.

Oh, I never said make that trade. I have no interest in Tanev (the best piece and the only one I am considering). I think Tanev is the 'nucks version of hainsey, but younger. Valuable for the team, but not worth much.

I'd like to join this club.
My thoughts on it. Id like to preface by saying I figure Gards will get 30-36 million in FA, My plan is to give him more over longer, at a lower cap hit.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/828286

Walking. And Holy **** Leafs fans overrate Gardiner. Pathetic

Canucks defencemen with higher GAR than Jake Gardiner last season:
Canucks defencemen with higher 5v5 P/60 than Jake Gardiner last season:
Canucks defencemen with higher 5v5 P1/60 than Gardiner last season:
Canucks defencemen with higher 5v5 GS/60 than Jake Gardiner last season:
Canucks defencemen with higher 5v5 CF% than Gardiner last season: Alex Biega and Derrick Pouliot (both of whom were substantially sheltered compared to Gardiner)
Canucks defencemen with higher 5v5 xGF% than Gardiner last season:
Canucks defencemen with higher all situations P/60 than Gardiner:
Canucks defencemen with higher all situations P1/60 than Gardiner:
Canucks defencemen with higher all situations GS/60 than Gardiner:
If I didn't list any names, it's because they weren't any. At 5v5, Gardiner was Toronto's best dman last year (nobody on Toronto's D corps topped him in 5v5 production or GAR, and his xGF% was only surpassed by Dermott and Carrick, who were heavily sheltered), and no blueliner the Canucks have his on his level. He's not overrated, he just is legitimately that good.

Also: Baertschi's 25 (has probably already peaked), has gotten buried in possession his whole career, has never scored 20 goals, and has never hit 40 points. He's a 3rd liner, and odds are that's all he'll ever be. The Leafs don't need another 3rd liner at all. Sutter's a bottom-six checker who's exiting his prime. He played brutal minutes last year and got buried. He's managed a 50% CF% while paying 80 games once in his career, and that was on a stacked as hell Pens team (his CF% rel was -4.5). Leafs don't care about him, either.

2nds whatever. Every pick's a lottery ticket outside the top-20.

Tanev's a potentially interesting piece, but with his injury history and lack of gamechanging talent, he isn't worth Gardiner alone, let alone with Nylander thrown in.

Dayum tsssssssssssss

If Baertschi didn't break his f**king jaw last season hrveiukd have easily hit 20 goals and scored 50 points or more that's better than a f**king 3rd liner

Sven Baertschi's ixG (individual expected goals) last season was 11.03. (ixG is a more predictive metric than raw goals, which are super volatile). He did that in 53 games, which is roughly 15-17 ixG pace. He's not a 20-goal scorer. Outside of the injury, he was super lucky offensively last season. Sub-20 goals and sub-40 points is, based on what we saw last year, where his true talent is offensively. He's a 3rd liner.

We haven't seen him play a full season yet now, have we? Why don't you go back to your dark little hole and leave the Canucks alone. We don't need little ******* like you to tell us that our team is bad, cause fact is we want our team to be bad so we can have a good draft pick.

I can’t believe you are arguing that Gardiner is better than Tanev. We’re tlaking about one of the worst defenseman in the league defensively vs one of the best. The reason Gardiner’s offensive stats are so high is because:
1) Gardiner plays the power play and is sheltered to the ***** max defensively.
2) Gardiner passes the puck to Austin Matthews, Marner, Nylander, soon to be Tavares etc.

Tanev plays shutdown minutes, gets no PK time and the players he has up front are literally Boeser and Horvat.

Don’t ever say that Tanev isn’t even worth Gardiner. Pathetic.

Totally agreed and while yes Sutter is not ghsy great of s player he still has value. The Leafs dont know who their 4th line centre will be, and he could probably play there for them. Baertschi has a decent ceiling if you play him with the right guys and he doesn't get injured. Tanev is one of the better defensive dmen out there but people who know absolutely nothing about the Canucks sit here and beat on some quality hockey players

If a guy hasn't had a full season at 25, that's not a good thing.

Hey, if you're trying to tank, Baertschi on the top line's a decent call (though personally I'd say Cody McLeod would be a better pick). Issue is that Vancouver sucking does not increase Baertschi's value to the Leafs.



Gardiner saw pretty average QoC and a <50% oZS%. He wasn't sheltered.

Tanev wasn't able to do anything while the Sedins were in town, and Gards's excellent on-ice results (such as his 4 straight years of >50 CF% and never having a negative Corsi Rel in his career) date back to some pretty awful Leafs teams (including a last place finish the year before Matthews). 30 points a year isn't as good as what he's doing now, but it's still a hell of a lot better than anything Tanev's ever done.

I assume you mean PP time, to which I respond that Gardiner's 1.21 P/60 is at 5v5 alone, so the PP time isn't a factor.



Oh Tanev's excellent defensively, but I wouldn't swap Gards out for Niklas Hjalmarsson either. Both ends matter, and Tanev's pathetic offensively. taken overall, he put up negative Corsi Rel and even xGF% rel with high QoT. Put differently, Vancouver's put their best players alongside Tanev, and they've been worse with him on the ice than without him. Part of that is the oZS%, but taken as a whole, Tanev isn't much better than the other pieces on that Vancouver D core. None of them are on Gards's level.

As for Sutter, he's not necessarily atrocious, but he's past the point where he'd have any upside. The Leafs have a couple of exciting C prospects and just acquired Par Lindholm, who was nearly a ppg player in Sweden. Sutter might have some value at the deadline if these guys flop, but until then, they should play the young guys that might be more than a 4C over the guy who'll never be more than that.

One of the things I usually note about the Canucks fanbase is that if the Canucks players were as good as the fans claim they are (Boeser > Kucherov, that one was from twitter, Virtanen top-20 winger in the league, Tanev as good as Gardiner, Horvat anything resembling a cornerstone piece, Baertschi a 1st liner), the team wouldn't be a bottomfeeder that's in the lottery every year.

Don't the Leafs need a defensive dman? They have offence from the back end already

More than anything, they need good dmen.

It's actually more optimal for good teams to play more offensively. A 55 GF% gets a +10 differential if 100 goals are scored in games involving you (55 for, 45 against), but if it's 200, it's a +20 differential (110 for, 90 against), and so on. The more offensive the style, the less luck matters and the more talent matters, since luck has an easier time swinging games won by small margins.

This is to say nothing of the fact that EvolvingWild found that offensive components of their WAR-style metric had twice the total impact of the defensive ones.

There is no chance that Toronto even considers that deal. It's horrible

Also am I the only Canucks fan who realizes that Gudbranson is one of the worst d-men in the entire league, not a top pairing one?

Believe me I know he sucks we should have never traded for him, just like we should have never signed Loui Eriksson. Benning has been horrible for the Canucks, only making his morale with the fans worse by signing Beagle and Roussel to the contracts he did

Stop basing everything off advanced stats and use your freaking eyes. Advanced stats are good in context but only when you use them in combination with the eye test.

I as a Canucks fan would never say they Boeser is better than Kucherov that's just plain stupidity. And what happened to the days when the stats we used were goals assists and points? That was way simpler

Context: you mean like Quality of Teammates or ice time? That Tanev has really high in? Yeah the Canucks sucked. That's because their players sucked.



It happened in a twitter poll. Goals/assists/points was simpler but doesn't show everything and isn't as predictive as the newer stuff. They are simpler but worse.

Also Rel means relative to team, so negative xGF% rel means the Canucks had a worse xGF% with Tanev than without him.