Quoting: ChiHawks34
Value is close, but if columbus feels like panarin would extend there, they wouldn't retain at all.
I would agree with you on that, especially considering TB can afford to have his full cap hit (and still have roughly 3M to work with, which is a healthy amount for Yzerman.
As for this mock roster:
That top line is absolutely filthy, probably the best in hockey, but I think it creates cap complications when working on extensions for Point, Gourde, Vasy, Sergachev, etc. (if you plan to extend Panarin that is). You could move other money out, but I feel lim TB's core plays so well together that they may not want to break it up (unless it's Johnson, who seems to be the only one they may part ways with).
As for your trade proposal:
I think this is a solid start to what it would take to bring Panarin to TB, but it doesn't make sense from CBJ's perspective. They do not need D, especially on the left (Werenski, Murray), and it wouldn;t make sense for them to deal their top asset and get a left D as one of the biggest pieces of value in return. Miller makes sense, he can play any position, a top 6 forward, solid game. The pick is probably about right, but I think it could also become a 1st if Panarin gets 30 goals or 70 pts. Swap out McDonagh for possibly Gourde or another strong forward piece and it could go through.
Another aspect to this proposal:
Signing players and trading them right away does not give you a good rep as a GM, and may make it harder for Yzerman to sign UFA's to team friendly deals in the future, or bridge extensions with his RFA's. It's an all around bad move, and seeing as how he just extended both Miller and McDonagh, I don't see that happening. Maybe at the end of this next season Yzerman decides he wants to trade Miller (before NTC kicks in), which wouldn;t be the worst thing to do, but I can't see him doing that either before or during the 2018-2019 season.