Under most circumstances, 30 teams would be lining up outside the Canadian Tire Center to make a deal with Ottawa to acquire Erik Karlsson. He's that good a player, on that good a contract. However, there are many mitigating circumstances right now, including the Trade Deadline, Ottawa's desire to shed money, and salary cap gymnastics. However, there are still teams that would be willing to make a trade with Ottawa. I will break down the no-shots, pretenders, and the contenders. First, we have to shorten the list of teams. We'll do this by identifying rivals Ottawa won't trade with, teams likely on Karlsson's no trade list, teams that are eliminated from 2018 playoff contention, teams that would have to send significant money back to Ottawa, and teams that have a very small need for defensive help.

1) No chance Ottawa trades Karlsson to these markets
- Eliminated: Toronto, Montreal
2) Likely on Karlsson's No Trade
- Eliminated: Arizona
- Remaining: 27
3) Not realistically in playoff contention
- Eliminated: Buffalo, Vancouver, Edmonton, Detroit, Chicago, NY Rangers
- Remaining: 21
4) Low Cap Space/Need to send returning money
- Eliminated: Minnesota, Washington, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Florida, Anaheim
- Remaining: 15
5) Teams that have a small or no need for defensive help
- Eliminated: Nashville, Winnipeg, Philadelphia, San Jose, Columbus, Carolina, Calgary, Los Angeles,
- Remaining: 7

Remaining Teams: Boston, Dallas, Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Vegas, Colorado, NY Islanders

Tier 3 (The Unlikely, but Possible)

Boston: It's pretty hard to imagine the Bruins, perennially in Ottawa's path, as contenders for it. However, because of Ottawa's recent success against the Bruins in the playoffs, there may not be the same geographic rivalry concerns that exist with the Canadiens and the Leafs. Furthermore, the Bruins have a rather deep prospect pool and plenty of young players that are already in the NHL. The Bruins would also need to send salary back, but in a small form which could probably be flipped rather easily. The Bruins' interest in Ryan McDonagh indicates they aren't satisfied with their defense, but is Karlsson's handedness and increased price tag worth it for Boston?
NY Islanders: When you have the goal-scoring capabilities the Islanders do, it's extremely difficult to watch as the team bleed goals on the back end. With two draft selections very likely to be in the top 20, the Islanders have a nice stash of picks and potential prospects, along with a significant need on the defensive end. However, any money they would need to send back at least short term money, and does adding Karlsson really sway Tavares' future? Furthermore, Garth Snow has already set the groundwork for a low-action trade deadline, saying it doesn't make sense for the Islanders to give up their picks for this team. While they definitely are a wildcard, don't consider them a likely destination.
Avalanche: Depending on how desperate Joe Sakic is to move out Tyson Barrie, there's an interesting potential trade surrounding the Sens and Avs. Furthermore, there's also lots of Ottawa's original assets they could reclaim in a deal to move out Karlsson, particularly their first round pick (likely in 2019). However, with Colorado outside the playoff picture right now, and still needing to stock the prospect cupboard further, the Avs may not be interested in making that kind of investment.

Tier 2 (The "We'll take Bobby Ryan"/"We really want to win this year" Group)

Dallas: The Stars don't seem like a team that could realistically fit Karlsson. Furthermore, they already have John Klingberg on the right side of their defense. That being said, they have the high-end prospects to get it done, and a GM who is more than excited to try and make this happen. There also exists the capability for Karlsson to be resigned, despite the presence of Tyler Seguin, thanks to the stellar John Klingberg deal. While I wouldn't put Dallas as the front-runner, they should not be counted out.
New Jersey: The Devils are a very interesting contender for Karlsson, if only because they seem like the team on this list that has the greatest need for defensemen, now, and in the future. With Taylor Hall lighting it up, Nico Hischier proving to be a capable top-line center, and a world-class goaltender, the Devils have found themselves solidly in the playoff picture. However, they have some clear holes at defense, lacking a true top defensive-stalwart. Karlsson would fit well in the Devils system and give them that top-line presence that would immediately launch the Devils into the contender conversation. The problem is that the Devils don't have a ton of great prospects. The solution? Taking Bobby Ryan, who is from New Jersey.
Vegas: Las Vegas has shocked the world this year, quickly ascending to the top of the league with stellar numbers, and it looks like they may not come down any time soon. There's also pieces for the future in Marchessault, William Karlsson, Nate Schmidt, Shea Theodore, and Alex Tuch. Would adding a second Karlsson to the mix put them over the top? It would certainly finalize a formidable top four, and would dramatically improve an already solid defensive team. Karlsson also fits right into the new system. The only hesitation with the Knights is the prospect cost. Would they be willing to move players, even when they've only had one draft class?

Tier 1 (The Obvious Landing Spot)

Tampa Bay: Prospects to give? Check. Young NHL players that don't affect the Lightning roster too much? Check. Need for a top-four defenseman? Check. Trying to win the Cup right now? Absolutely. The Lightning check all the boxes for a Karlsson trade, and it could transform the Lightning from an elite team to one of the best teams in recent memory.

My top 5 most likely landing spots:
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Dallas Stars
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Las Vegas Golden Knights
5. New York Islanders

Nice work, I can tell you put a lot of thought into this and I agree with just about all of it. I don't think VGK can afford to make that move because like you said, they have a limited number of prospects and they'd be committing a ton of assets. IMO they're a team that still might be overperforming/riding on the high of an unreal first season. Could be disastrous if they come down to earth. Remember, the Sens were one goal away from the SCF last year and look at them now.

I have 2 categories:

Teams with no chance:
Anaheim
Arizona
Boston
Buffalo
Calgary
Carolina
Chicago
Colorado
Columbus
Dallas
Detroit
Edmonton
Florida
Los Angeles
Minnesota
Montreal
Nashville
New Jersey
NY Islanders
NY Rangers
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
San Jose
St. Louis
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Vancouver
Vegas
Washington
Winnipeg

Obvious Landing Spot:
Ottawa

I actually think that the two most logical fits are with New Jersey and Colorado. I think something around Tyson Barrie makes a lot of sense for the Sens. If (for some reason) they want to try and trend upwards next season, they still have a top pairing, puck moving defenseman and their system gets replenished after the Duchene trade. If they want to fully rebuild, they can trade Barrie for even more futures. It's a massive upgrade for the Avs, and it gives them the elite defenseman that helps them compete with Nashville, Dallas, Winnipeg at St. Louis in the Central. While I'm not entirely sure what a deal would look like, EK65 for Barrie in general makes sense for both sides.

The Devils have the cap space and the dynamic offensive talent that would make Karlsson want to stay. The package most likely starts with Severson and Zacha and a first, which NJ should be more than willing to add to. There's plenty of room to fill out the roster in the offseason as well, and if they want to take Ryan, that's always an option. It works all around. They have the cap space to be flexible with the deal and building around Karlsson, Hall and Hischier.

Tampa is an interesting case. The biggest reason that I don't think they do it is because they don't need to. They won't be able to keep him long-term, and they don't need to go all the way by getting Karlsson. I think if they got a solid top four guy like Niklas Hjalmarsson, it'd be very effective for them, and they can keep guys like Foote and Cirelli to get it done.


However, I don't see a deal coming materializing until the offseason. Teams will kick the tires right now, but it only makes sense for Tampa to give up the assets right now, and I already touched on why that's probably not the best idea. I think New Jersey or Colorado in the offseason makes the most sense all around, most likely right after the draft.

But great analysis of the situation. Stick taps for that my friend.

The reason I like NJ is pretty much because they can take Bobby Ryan, and it reasonably add to their team.

Potential NJ Deal


Erik Karlsson
Bobby Ryan


Pavel Zacha
Ben Lovejoy
John Quenneville
2019 1st
2020 1st
2020 2nd

Severson is where I would question this if I was the Devils. He's their best RHD by far, and having a top four of Greene-Karlsson and Butcher-Severson is something I would really try to achieve.

EDIT: Originally I thought a 2018 2nd would be a solid choice, but with the Grabner trade happening as I wrote this post, that complicates things somewhat....

So now here's the question: does Karlsson get traded before the trade deadline?
I'm going with no.

They still have Sami Vatanen, and I'd assume that Ottawa would want one of those young, top four RHDs coming their way. Andy Greene isn't all that great anymore, so I'd expect them to be looking for a top-four LHD this offseason anyways (I see Calvin de Haan being a good fit via free agency). I see the framework being like this, one deal with Ryan and one without.


Erik Karlsson
Bobby Ryan



Sami Vatanen
Pavel Zacha
Blake Speers
John Quenneville
2019 1st round pick (NJD)



OR




Erik Karlsson



Sami Vatanen
Pavel Zacha
Michael McLeod
John Quenneville
Mackenzie Blackwood
2019 1st round pick (NJD)
2020 2nd round pick (NJD)

Both of these make sense. Might add a late pick to that first one going to Ottawa, but it's within the ballpark for sure.

I wouldn't quiet count out Toronto considering Ottawa did approach them already with a deal around Karlsson. Didn't get very far considering Ottawa wanted Willy or Marner going the other way. I do think Ottawa would increase their price with these teams but don't think they would reject the right offer

I think he would be an excellent fit in Vegas.. Vegas is already a great team - imagine if they added Karlsson - look out.... They could be legitimate contenders for the next several years. They have the assets it would take without significantly hurting their present roster.... If I'm George McPhee I would float the idea around with ownership - that and the idea of signing John Tavares as a UFA this summer..

As far as a Karlsson trade I suppose it would look something like this:

With Bobby Ryan:



Erik Karlsson
Bobby Ryan



David Clarkson
Nate Schmidt
Alex Tuch
Nick Suzuki
2018 First Round Pick

Without Bobby Ryan



Nate Schmidt
Alex Tuch
Nick Suzuki
Reid Duke
2018 First Round Pick
2019 Second Round Pick

That is an awfuly hefty price to pay for Karlsson, however this trade doesn't impact their present roster (much), I mean the addition of Karlsson obviously trumps the loss of Tuch & Schmidt, and if Ryan is included in the deal I think he would certainly improve this team... I mean Ryan isn't garbage - his contract is....

Now the real question is, considering the position Vegas is presently in - will they or can they give up those prospects to put them over the top - just not for this season, but for the next several seasons? Because normally an established franchise would certainly sell the farm if it meant they would be legitimate contenders or perhaps favorites for the next 3-5 years.

Whatever Vegas' agenda is, I think they have an opportunity to be just as good as Tampa Bay - if not better with the addition of Karlsson, an if they can sign Tavares in the summer - I think they will be the team to beat over the next several seasons...

Yes we all know your opinion. We saw all of the unnecessary one star ratings for EK trades. Seems like he is getting traded though.

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