Devils were close on Markstrom at deadline. But things have changed.
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The Devils and Flames came to an agreement "in principle" in February on a deal for Markstrom. Conroy approved the deal and asked Markstrom to waive. Markstrom agreed to waive for New Jersey (according to Eric Francis, Frank Seravalli, others). But ownership killed the deal for a couple possible reasons. Some, such as Elliotte Friedman, said Calgary did not want to retain. Later, Darren Dreger and others said they wanted to keep him to compete for playoff spot. The deal at the time was Holtz for Markstrom with $2m to $3m retained. Here is Dave Pagnotta a few weeks after,
<em>"Calgary and New Jersey had agreed to a deal that would have sent Markstrom to the Devils in a package that included young forward Alexander Holtz. The Flames were set to retain around $2 million to $3 million of Markstrom’s annual cap hit."</em>
Earlier versions of the trade had Flames adding a bottom-six forward or Vanacek and mid-pick coming from New Jersey...but it sounded like those were removed. While Flames forums imagined massive packages include Mercer, Nemec, multiple picks, the reality was no one has ever reported any of those pieces. As Flames scribe Eric Francis said after the season, despite the high anticipated price tag, "the fact was there was not a significant market for the $6 million goalie at this year’s trade deadline"
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And it doesn't sound like the relationship has been repaired with Conroy and Markstrom.
Markstrom, who has two years remaining on his contract, was asked during his exit interview where he thought he will be playing next year and he said, "I don't know".
According to recent reporting from Salim Valji, sometime in February after he waived his trade clause, Markstrom even had to inform his teammates as a group that he had been traded to New Jersey. In was already known that on March 1st, Markstrom spoke publicly about his displeasure how the situation “could have been handled a lot different from up top.” At the end of the season, after his exit interview with Calgary brass, he said, “season just ended, and I saw Connie, and leave it at that.”
GM Conroy said, “obviously that wasn’t something anybody was happy with. Marky explained where he was at. I talked to him about where we are at. Pat Morris and everybody kind of knows now. We’re going to keep that between ourselves. It was cordial. He was good, he was a great pro. We had a good talk.” When asked about Markstrom returning to Calgary, Conroy simply said, "You know, time will tell with all that. It’s hard to put today expectations of what’s going to happen in a month or a day or a week or moving forward.”
A Flames beat reporter's reaction was, "none of their comments really did much to quell speculation that Markstrom will be wearing another team’s jersey in the fall."
A Devils beat reporter said, "One thing’s for sure. There’s a tension that can be cut with a knife between the Flames and Markstrom. Even the Flames’ GM added to the speculation when asked about Markstrom’s future."
Eric Francis wrote of the exchange, "Niceties aside, they’re heading to Splitsville."
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So what would a new deal look like? Starting at the February trade and pulling forward...
1. Holtz was the approved price at deadline for three years of Markstrom at $2-3m retained.
2. Today, there would be two years instead of three.
3. The Devils added two goalies that played well (2.96 / 0.906).
4. Since rumors surfaced, Markstrom has not played well (3.18 / 0.888).
5. In March, Nick Kyreos reported that Markstrom had used his NTC to block a deal to Los Angeles.
So there is no reason the trade price would go up. It would certainly be less now.
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One way to compute would be to determine the cost for 1/2 season of Markstrom and back out of original price.
X - Y = Z
X = February price of Holtz for 3 years of Markstrom (retained)
Y = Hypothetical price of 1-year of Markstrom
Z = Price today
Comps to use for a hypothetical rental Markstrom trade
-- Marc Andre Fleury (2022) for 2nd round pick
-- Darcy Kuemper (2021) for Timmins, 1st, conditional pick
-- Robin Lehrner (2020) for Subban, 2nd, 5th
-- Cam Talbot (2015) for 2nd, 3rd
-- Sergei Bobrovsky (2012) for 2nd, 4th, 4th
-- Cristobal Huet (2008) for 2nd
-- Dwayne Roloson (2006) for 1st, 3rd
Y = Somewhere between a late 1st or 2nd.
Thus,
Z = Holtz - 2nd = Markstrom (50%)
Z = Holtz = Markstrom (50%) + 2nd
(The sum or the parts valuations would usually be more encompassing, but I will spare the details and just present the offer).
Well written, I do love how New Jersey fans always skip over that Holtz was part of a package. We will never know what the offer really was. I'm not going to try a predict a return for Markstrom, I a have no idea how other teams would realistically value him. The biggest thing now though is there are potentially more teams interested in him. Nashville wants to resign Saros so he might no longer be a option. Will be interesting to see what happens.
Many Flames Fans are ready to move on from Markstrom and hand the reigns to Wolf and a healthy Vladar, so I for one am definitely hoping to see him Traded at the deadline for ideally another or a much better 1st Round Pick. I do believe we will need to retain at least $2mil to get a quality return though
The only way I see CGY having an interest in Holtz is if they plan to flip him or Coronato for their actual need, which is a True Centre. Otherwise, they’ll likely want a quality Pick to Draft and Develop One of their own
I do believe it takes more than Holtz alone to get Marky though, especially if he’s being retained on though
McDavid, Connor
250 000 $)
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