Overthinking the Future

Équipe: 2024-25 Penguins de Pittsburgh

Date de création initiale: 21 févr. 2024

Publié: 23 févr. 2024

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Gigantic block of text. This is a warning. And a threat.

Am I unrealistically optimistic here? Most likely, yes. Slightly (or more) insane? Jury's still out. C'est la vie.

This season for the Pens has been so disappointing. On paper, the team was a lot better than last season. In reality, down years from Rakell and basically every noteworthy Dubas acquisition other than Nedeljkovic and Eller cut the Pens off at the knees. I think the most important players have been pretty good, but the supporting cast and awful power play killed us (Fire Todd Rierdan). With a better supporting cast, the Pens might still have a year or two left in the tank.
Dubas put some focus recently on wanting to get younger as well, so my intent here was to fill in the roster with the few guys in our system who look good, and target UFAs on the younger side of what's available.

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First thing's first is the 2024 Deadline. I see this as more of an opportunity to free up some roster space for offseason addition and an opportunity to give DOC, Puustinen, and (when healthy) Poulin some time in more significant roles, as well as give Phillips and Bemstrom chances to see where they fit in the team's future. That means no teardown, and no teardown means no Guentzel trade. I don't think we're capable of getting the level of return for him that kick starts a rebuild. I can't see Detroit giving up a package of ASP+1st+ or Dallas giving up Stankoven+1st+ or something along those lines. I would anticipate a Giroux/Horvat level return, but I don't think that's going to do the Pens enough good.

Reilly Smith: Guess who just got a bunch of cap space open and is proven to be a really good fit for Reilly Smith? Smith and Malkin just don't gel, and Sully refused to separate them for too long. They brought each other down. He'll definitely return to form in Vegas if he goes there. I think in the short time since Smith moved to the 3rd line, both it and the 2nd have been better, but I think it's a better bet to replace him with someone who can hopefully fit with Geno better.

Alex Nedeljkovic: Hey, look, another reunion. The cap works if Spencer Martin gets sent to the minors, and gives Carolina a decent trio of Kotchetkov, Nedeljkovic, and Raanta. Kotchetkov is the only goalie of theirs who's had consistent success this season, so I could see them wanting some backup on that front. It looks like Ned would be a rental. If it comes with an extension, I could see the price jumping to the later of CAR's 2nds. Colorado also makes sense as a possible destination to backup Georgiev.

Lars Eller: Honestly not sure where Eller would go, whereas I had some genuine leads for other guys. He'd be a good 4C basically anywhere. Still great defensively, on the PK, and in the faceoff dot. The Jets are below average on the PK and pretty poor at faceoffs. Sounds like something they could use. Anyone who makes Hellebuyck's life easier should be welcomed with open arms, for all I know.
With Chibrikov, I'm a little worried that Jets fans think that's a little much for Eller, but I'd value Eller at a 2nd without retention, and Winnipeg has quite a few better forward prospects that make him somewhat expendable: McGroarty, Lambert, Barlow, and Lucius I think all have more upside. Jets fans, feel free to make a counteroffer. Beggars can't be choosers.

Pierre-Olivier Joseph: I like POJ, but he's more offensively inclined. Having Karlsson and Letang makes that offense less useful. I think he's stuck in a system that can't make the most of his talent.
Honestly, I think anyone who wants to take a flier on the guy can go right ahead. He just doesn't really fit what we need from him. A real shame, too. I like the guy a lot and hope he reaches his potential wherever he lands. But the way things have been going in Pittsburgh, it probably won't be here.

Other potential moves:
Ruhwedel makes sense as an insurance pickup for basically any team. The type of plug and play 3rd pairing/7th D defensive guy that gets dealt at every deadline. I don't like our depth beneath him, though.
I can hear arguments on Rakell and Rust but both have some level of trade protection and a lot of term. That combination for a pair of guys in their early 30s isn't easy to find buyers. Similar deal with Graves. Big, long contract that isn't easy to move and we might just be stuck with for a while. Maybe Dubas will pull off a magic trick. I'm not getting my hopes up.
Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto could probably stick around as depth guys for the next bottom 6, or could be dealt. We'd be selling low given Acciari's play and Nieto's health. I just chose to leave them.

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The biggest issue of concern for me is forward depth. Rakell and Smith both were pretty meh at best offensively. I'm pessimistic on our ability to trade a 30 year old with that much term, so Rakell stays and gets stapled to Sid and Jake where he's been best since his acquisition. Smith had no chemistry with Malkin past the first two weeks. Didn't stop them from being stapled together for far too long. Below that, DOC and Eller were decent but couldn't pick up the slack, and a rotating cast of guys that do basically nothing, and guys that take the fall for the guys that do basically nothing.

I want Puustinen, DOC, and Puljujarvi to have consistent roles here. I think they've all played better than Harkins, Phillips, Carter, etc with solid frequency.
I hate sticking DOC on the 4th line, but he's the kind of guy who can play up and down the lineup, whereas Puustinen and probably Puljujarvi aren't great fits for a grindier, more defensive line.
Speaking of guys I want to give a bigger role to than the 4th line, Sammy Poulin. He's worked best at C in the AHL and needs/deserves NHL time, but I don't want to have to rely on him being a good enough 3C from the jump. I could reshuffle the lines to put Poulin at 2LW or 3LW, but his best work is at center, and Noel Acciari is better at W than C.

Onto the acquisitions.
Frank Vatrano has had himself a stellar year in Anaheim and is just below a 40 goal pace. Probably means the cost is more than what I'm offering (Ducks fans, let me hear your suggestions), but his defense leaves something to be desired and it's reasonable to doubt if he can replicate this year. Maybe next to Geno he can. The important things I see for the Pens are 1) A winger for Geno who's capable of shooting the puck. Dear lord he needs one, 2) Frank's on pace for a career high in hits and blocks this year. Pens fans constantly crave physical players, and 3) Frank Vatrano has 10 PPGs. Checks a lot of boxes.
Then there's Novak. This is my "I looked at the scouting report tab and had a vision" pick. Because every normal human being has one of those. Novak definitely brings more offense than can be expected from the likes of Eller and Acciari. Scouting report said he was good off the rush. It says the same thing about Puusty and Pulji. Sounds like the makings of a 3rd line heavy on forechecking and rush offense, something that the Pens struggle with this year. Also, 5 PPGs. The only negatives I see are almost no hits and Nashville having enough cap space that he might not make it to free agency. In that case, maybe give Poulin a shot at 3C or pick one of the centers off the list below.

Other Forwards Considered:
Anthony Mantha - Another good sniper, might be harder to fit under the cap.
Jordan Eberle - Volume shooter, but potential cap hit and age a slight concern.
Tyler Bertuzzi - prove-it deal candidate with a sniper's pedigree
Erik Haula - Was looking for a middle 6 guy under $3.5M that wasn't a UFA this offseason. Pretty limiting parameters. Probably a cap casualty.
Evan Rodriguez - Definitely a long shot, but Reinhart, Montour, and Forsling are all significant pieces to Florida's success. Another cap casualty.
Yegor Sharangovich - Excellent scoring, but the underlying stats are concerning.
Dakota Joshua/Teddy Blueger - career year with Vancouver's 3rd line. Is it worth betting on either keeping that up here?
Victor Olofsson: 3x 20 goal scorer having a bad year while forced into a 4th line role. Potentially worth a prove-it deal and a middle six role.

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Defense could use a touch-up as well. I don't need to be the trillionth voice complaining about Graves. I don't think there's anything there that hasn't been said. It's unlikely, but if we somehow manage to move Graves, one of Noah Hanifin or Gustav Forsling should be top priority if either is available. In lieu of that, I want to shore up the bottom pairing. Picking my poison of Shea/POJ/Ludvig and Ruhwedel is not ideal.

Caleb Jones has had solid results in a sheltered role with Colorado. He's put up decent offense a couple times and managed to survive a top 4 role in Chicago last year. I think he could play top 4 in a pinch, but is best left on the bottom pair to give Ludvig and Desharnais some competition. Being able to play both sides is also a plus.
Speaking of the big guy, I'm probably underpaying him. Desharnais's package of 6'7", 225lb frame, high amount of blocks and hits, and great defensive analytics will definitely turn GMs' heads. Another player that checks a lot of boxes for the Pens. They don't need any more offense from the blue line with Letang and Karlsson. But a physical shutdown guy that can take some of the load off of those guys? Sign me up yesterday.

Other Defensemen Considered:
Alexandre Carrier - Good 2-way D. Excellent for 3rd pairing, good on 2nd.
Sean Walker - Top 4 breakout in Philly, can play both sides. Definitely on the short list.
Nick Seeler - See Walker, just a little less pronounced.
Matt Roy - Same as Carrier. Slightly better results and physicality, but also older.
Nikita Zadorov - Like Desharnais, big and physical and solid defensively. Can play both sides. Probably hard to fit under the cap.
Matt Grzykcyk - Great defensive results, can take top 4 spot from Graves. Probably hard to fit under the cap.

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Going to keep the goalie section short. Who am I kidding, I can't keep anything on this website short. Nedeljkovic played his way out of our budget. Love the guy, hope he succeeds wherever he lands. Luckily for the Penguins, Joel Blomqvist's rookie season in the AHL has been stellar. A .918 SV% and 2.17 GAA in 30 games is nothing short of a smashing success. That doesn't necessarily mean he's NHL ready, but I'd like to see him get some starts. Bring back Hellberg or another depth goalie like him to play the backup if needed, or #3 if he works out.

I signed a couple of ELCs, and acquired Nikita Chibrikov. Chibrikov looks good in his first AHL season. We'll see if he's NHL ready, but my plan is to pencil him in on WBS's top RW.
I think Yager still has to return to the WHL in '24-'25 if he doesn't make the Penguins, and I doubt his NHL readiness. The others are a bit of a long shot.
Broz is playing solidly in the NCAA, I think as Denver's 2C. Worth giving him a shot if he'll come to WBS.
Ilyin has been a revelation for a 5th round pick. I think the only U21 players with more KHL points than him are Dmitri Buchelnikov, Danila Yurov, and Matvei Michkov. Not bad company by any means. Another matter of "does he come here if we sign him?" I want to give him AHL time ASAP.
Laatsch is just kinda there because WBS doesn't have a lot of defensemen under NHL contract next year. Just organizational depth.

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Hey, you made it this far! Why would you do this to yourself? Why did I do this to myself? Oh my god, what am I doing with my life?
Uh, anyways. I like the look of the team I crafted here. Crosby, Malkin, and Letang continue to delay the inevitable. The core of them, Karlsson, and Guentzel is still keeping us in the conversation. That won't last forever. A shoring up could very easily put the Pens back in the playoffs for a little while.
It's certainly not perfect but the depth is unquestionably a few steps up from where it is now. I'd like a better LD acquisition than Jones and I worry about the forwards' defense/PKing a little. But that costs more cap space and cuts into the youth we can ice.
There's a little bit of everything. Vatrano and Novak bring the offensive depth we're sorely lacking (Sully give Puustinen a longer leash I beg of you), Vatrano and Desharnais bring some bite and physicality. Vatrano's the only one whose defense I have concerns about, and he doesn't need to do that if he and Geno light the lamp consistently. The average age of the team was brought down by at least a year and a half.

Here's to hoping something like this is feasible. Any suggestions, feedback, or (constructive) criticism is welcomed. If you read this entire novella, thank you, and you (like me) definitely need to touch grass.

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