Okay, so I’m going to put a few things out there now for how I view this team.
1. I’m not really going to be focusing on cap hits. This is two years down the road, the hawks have miles of cap space, they will be capable of signing all these guys 3 times over. This is a projection experiment for the younger assets and prospects in the organization.
2. This experiment will include the selection of Adam Fantilli with the 2nd overall pick in 2023. As I believe not only that the gap between him and Bedard has been exaggerated by many, but that his style of play is exactly what Kyle Davidson and Luke Richardson want in hockey players. Fantilli goes #1 any of the last 5 years, and I see Jack Eichel upside with more physicality.
3. I’m not going to be projecting who we select besides that in upcoming drafts, the hawks have picks and are going to get more, but I doubt anyone selected in the 2023 and 2024 drafts will be a part of the 2024-25 team aside from Fantilli
4. Kyle Davidson has shown he does not care about Stan’s guys, he is building his team and he will put faith into those players. If you aren’t showing enough that you could be part of the solution he (and considering this my ACGM, me) will kick you to the curb.
5. I’m going to assume none of the UFA veterans re-sign. I think most of them either get traded, find a home elsewhere or aren’t good enough for the future. Lafferty, Dickinson, TyJo are some of the depth guys I’d like to keep, but for now I think it could be someone else like them, themselves, or an emerging prospect that takes the depth spots.
6. The hawks most promise for the future is clearly in the blue line, which is why I’m forced to list “random veterans” in the depth forwards.
7. Here’s a list of players who I see no future with the hawks for
Petr Mrazek
Caleb Jones
Michael Krutil
Boris Katchouk
Reese Johnson
MacKenzie Entwistle
Alec Regula
Jakub Pour
Mike Hardman
And the obvious ones like AA, Domi, Mrazek
I’m gonna talk about a few players this point.
1. I think with Nazar and (hopefully Fantilli) in the fold, Lukas Reichel can be given the chance to thrive on the wing. Fantilli and Reichel are a dream duo giving their combined skill level and Fantillis size mixed with Reichels craftiness. Kakko is a solid defensive option next to them that likely would be replaced by a veteran winger of sorts due to salary floor.
2. Kurashev and Raddysh are both likely 3rd liners of the future for the Hawks, but the guys behind them currently in this organization either aren’t gonna be ready for top 6 roles or don’t have that upside. WE NEED TO TAKE FORWARDS IN THE UPCOMING DRAFTS. Likely filled by veterans as well or trade acquisitions next to a hopefully healthy Frank Nazar.
3. Ilya Safonov is becoming my favorite fringe prospect. Dude is straight up killing it in the KHL and I think we might be looking at a future bottom 6er in the NHL. Fantastic 6th round pick and not bad for a guy whose previous claim to fame was running into Kirby Dach wrongly once before.
4. Samuel Savoie is having a points explosion in the Q and even without that, I’d still be lauding his NHL floor and tenacity. The ceiling is the real question with him, and I think he has the skating ability to make something of himself at the next level. Ludwinski can hopefully do the same, very similar profiles, Hagel/Shaw types. I think Savoie has more offensive upside so I put him in the NHL although I think neither will be fully ready by 2024-25.
4. Kevin Korchinski is that dude. I know I’m in the minority, but I think his upside is absolutely fantastic. His preseason was incredible and his WHL season is carrying on more of the same. I believe we have a potential #1 defenseman on our hands in the mold of Dougie Hamilton (if he shot less and passed more). I know it’s bold but I love what I see.
5. Isaak Phillips, Jakub Galvas, and Alex Vlasic are all some of the best defenseman the AHL has to offer this year, and I expect they’ll all be NHL regulars by at minimum, next season, if not some point by the end of this season. I like the pairing of Vlasic and Jones as it was decent in preseason, while Korch with Murphy is a match made in ****ing heaven. Phillips and Galvas are both cerebral defenders who don’t have the most upside, but I’d be surprised if they don’t become NHLers given their AHL dominance.
6. Soderblom is fantastic too. We saw it in the AHL last year, we’re seeing it in the NHL rn. He’s a fantastic goalie and while I’m not sure if Commesso will be NHL ready in 2 years (probably the Rockford starter at that point) I anticipate that Soderblom will be our tandem or starter with a veteran or even possibly Commesso if he explodes in development.
7. In this scenario I’m keeping Seth Jones, as I think the hawks in the end will do. He’s had zero help all year and has had a much worse season than last because of it. But I do believe his contract will provide value against the salary floor in these years and his NMC means he has full authority on where he can and cannot go. My hope, which could very well not come true, is that Seth can go back to at minimum, his ability from last year once this team starts trying to be respectable again.
I’ll also mention some guys who could possibly be here in 2 years, I just opted to leave ambiguous because they’re vets
Alex Stalock (mega-chaos)
Jason Dickinson (thanks Vancouver)
Sam Lafferty (thanks Pittsburgh)
TyJo, but he prob leaves
Location is irrelevant, 2 3rds seems fair for McCabe and I think he could be moved in the 2023 offseason to open up space for Phillips, Galvas, and Vlasic.
3 separate deals. Toews for a 2nd and a 3rd. Domi for a 3rd. And AA for a 4th. The team is not important to me just showing these guys are not part of the future.
Trade for Patrick Kane at 2023 Trade Deadline. I used the Giroux trade as a baseline, although I also think the Flyers got too little and Patrick Kane is better. Kane’s value is probably not great right now giving his play as of late, although I personally don’t doubt he will rebound when put with teammates who can think the game on his level.
How's Ian Mitchell doing? He was excellent in his draft year
Ian Mitchell had a few games in the AHL this year and was very good in them. He’s played 2 NHL games this year and struggled in them. I hope he gets more of a chance, and I think he can become an NHLer, but with some of the other names we’ve got, I don’t think it will be in Chicago at this point.
Great write-up with fantastic insight! I could definitely see Lafferty leading that third line with vet presence if he’s still with the Hawks. I share the same sentiment about Korchinski, he looks like an absolute stud and can’t wait for him to be there full-time.
I'll echo @GMtommyhawk from a little further away -- thanks for the passionate and informative dissertation and opinions. Whether one agrees with some, all, or none of them, your thoughts are provocative. I'm not a believer in the old saw that "what doesn't kill us makes us stronger," but I do believe that what causes us to think makes us smarter.
I wonder if Jake McCabe is some sort of solution to our LhD/partner-for-Matt-Roy problem.
I'll echo GMtommyhawk from a little further away -- thanks for the passionate and informative dissertation and opinions. Whether one agrees with some, all, or none of them, your thoughts are provocative. I'm not a believer in the old saw that "what doesn't kill us makes us stronger," but I do believe that what causes us to think makes us smarter.
I wonder if Jake McCabe is some sort of solution to our LhD/partner-for-Matt-Roy problem.
I’m not all to familiar with the situation with Matt Roy, but I’ll say that McCabe is a solid defensive defenseman when paired with a dman who actually compliments his skillset. Last year, McCabe and Murphy were playing with each other, and it was a nightmare on both ends because there was nowhere near enough puck moving ability, and that actually created a lot of odd man rushes going against them. When McCabe played with Seth Jones however, they were both better for it. If Roy can handle puckmoving responsibilities, and you need defensive solidity next to him, than McCabe could be your guy.
McDavid, Connor
250 000 $)
cooliny, OldNYIfan et Hawksguy81 a aimé ceci.
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