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Projecting a few years down the line long read

Créé par: Tyler_A10
Équipe: 2024-25 Blackhawks de Chicago
Date de création initiale: 28 nov. 2022
Publié: 29 nov. 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Okay, so I’m going to put a few things out there now for how I view this team.
1. I’m not really going to be focusing on cap hits. This is two years down the road, the hawks have miles of cap space, they will be capable of signing all these guys 3 times over. This is a projection experiment for the younger assets and prospects in the organization.
2. This experiment will include the selection of Adam Fantilli with the 2nd overall pick in 2023. As I believe not only that the gap between him and Bedard has been exaggerated by many, but that his style of play is exactly what Kyle Davidson and Luke Richardson want in hockey players. Fantilli goes #1 any of the last 5 years, and I see Jack Eichel upside with more physicality.
3. I’m not going to be projecting who we select besides that in upcoming drafts, the hawks have picks and are going to get more, but I doubt anyone selected in the 2023 and 2024 drafts will be a part of the 2024-25 team aside from Fantilli
4. Kyle Davidson has shown he does not care about Stan’s guys, he is building his team and he will put faith into those players. If you aren’t showing enough that you could be part of the solution he (and considering this my ACGM, me) will kick you to the curb.
5. I’m going to assume none of the UFA veterans re-sign. I think most of them either get traded, find a home elsewhere or aren’t good enough for the future. Lafferty, Dickinson, TyJo are some of the depth guys I’d like to keep, but for now I think it could be someone else like them, themselves, or an emerging prospect that takes the depth spots.
6. The hawks most promise for the future is clearly in the blue line, which is why I’m forced to list “random veterans” in the depth forwards.
7. Here’s a list of players who I see no future with the hawks for
Petr Mrazek
Caleb Jones
Michael Krutil
Boris Katchouk
Reese Johnson
MacKenzie Entwistle
Alec Regula
Jakub Pour
Mike Hardman
And the obvious ones like AA, Domi, Mrazek


I’m gonna talk about a few players this point.
1. I think with Nazar and (hopefully Fantilli) in the fold, Lukas Reichel can be given the chance to thrive on the wing. Fantilli and Reichel are a dream duo giving their combined skill level and Fantillis size mixed with Reichels craftiness. Kakko is a solid defensive option next to them that likely would be replaced by a veteran winger of sorts due to salary floor.
2. Kurashev and Raddysh are both likely 3rd liners of the future for the Hawks, but the guys behind them currently in this organization either aren’t gonna be ready for top 6 roles or don’t have that upside. WE NEED TO TAKE FORWARDS IN THE UPCOMING DRAFTS. Likely filled by veterans as well or trade acquisitions next to a hopefully healthy Frank Nazar.
3. Ilya Safonov is becoming my favorite fringe prospect. Dude is straight up killing it in the KHL and I think we might be looking at a future bottom 6er in the NHL. Fantastic 6th round pick and not bad for a guy whose previous claim to fame was running into Kirby Dach wrongly once before.
4. Samuel Savoie is having a points explosion in the Q and even without that, I’d still be lauding his NHL floor and tenacity. The ceiling is the real question with him, and I think he has the skating ability to make something of himself at the next level. Ludwinski can hopefully do the same, very similar profiles, Hagel/Shaw types. I think Savoie has more offensive upside so I put him in the NHL although I think neither will be fully ready by 2024-25.
4. Kevin Korchinski is that dude. I know I’m in the minority, but I think his upside is absolutely fantastic. His preseason was incredible and his WHL season is carrying on more of the same. I believe we have a potential #1 defenseman on our hands in the mold of Dougie Hamilton (if he shot less and passed more). I know it’s bold but I love what I see.
5. Isaak Phillips, Jakub Galvas, and Alex Vlasic are all some of the best defenseman the AHL has to offer this year, and I expect they’ll all be NHL regulars by at minimum, next season, if not some point by the end of this season. I like the pairing of Vlasic and Jones as it was decent in preseason, while Korch with Murphy is a match made in ****ing heaven. Phillips and Galvas are both cerebral defenders who don’t have the most upside, but I’d be surprised if they don’t become NHLers given their AHL dominance.
6. Soderblom is fantastic too. We saw it in the AHL last year, we’re seeing it in the NHL rn. He’s a fantastic goalie and while I’m not sure if Commesso will be NHL ready in 2 years (probably the Rockford starter at that point) I anticipate that Soderblom will be our tandem or starter with a veteran or even possibly Commesso if he explodes in development.
7. In this scenario I’m keeping Seth Jones, as I think the hawks in the end will do. He’s had zero help all year and has had a much worse season than last because of it. But I do believe his contract will provide value against the salary floor in these years and his NMC means he has full authority on where he can and cannot go. My hope, which could very well not come true, is that Seth can go back to at minimum, his ability from last year once this team starts trying to be respectable again.

I’ll also mention some guys who could possibly be here in 2 years, I just opted to leave ambiguous because they’re vets
Alex Stalock (mega-chaos)
Jason Dickinson (thanks Vancouver)
Sam Lafferty (thanks Pittsburgh)
TyJo, but he prob leaves

Hope everyone enjoys reading all this nonsense.
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LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
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Transactions
1.
CHI
  1. Choix de 3e ronde en 2023 (MIN)
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2023 (ANA)
Détails additionnels:
Location is irrelevant, 2 3rds seems fair for McCabe and I think he could be moved in the 2023 offseason to open up space for Phillips, Galvas, and Vlasic.
2.
CHI
  1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2023 (DAL)
  2. Choix de 4e ronde en 2023 (DAL)
  3. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (DAL)
  4. Choix de 3e ronde en 2025 (DAL)
DAL
    3 separate deals. Toews for a 2nd and a 3rd. Domi for a 3rd. And AA for a 4th. The team is not important to me just showing these guys are not part of the future.
    3.
    CHI
    1. Berard, Brett [Liste de réserve]
    2. Kakko, Kaapo [Droits de RFA]
    3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (DAL)
    NYR
      Trade for Patrick Kane at 2023 Trade Deadline. I used the Giroux trade as a baseline, although I also think the Flyers got too little and Patrick Kane is better. Kane’s value is probably not great right now giving his play as of late, although I personally don’t doubt he will rebound when put with teammates who can think the game on his level.
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      29 nov. 2022 à 0 h 10
      #1
      BRUCE THERE IT IS
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      How's Ian Mitchell doing? He was excellent in his draft year
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      29 nov. 2022 à 0 h 22
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      Quoting: cooliny
      How's Ian Mitchell doing? He was excellent in his draft year


      Ian Mitchell had a few games in the AHL this year and was very good in them. He’s played 2 NHL games this year and struggled in them. I hope he gets more of a chance, and I think he can become an NHLer, but with some of the other names we’ve got, I don’t think it will be in Chicago at this point.
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      29 nov. 2022 à 0 h 24
      #3
      Interim Avian GM
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      Great write-up with fantastic insight! I could definitely see Lafferty leading that third line with vet presence if he’s still with the Hawks. I share the same sentiment about Korchinski, he looks like an absolute stud and can’t wait for him to be there full-time.
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      29 nov. 2022 à 0 h 35
      #4
      Once a Kings Fan Too
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      I'll echo @GMtommyhawk from a little further away -- thanks for the passionate and informative dissertation and opinions. Whether one agrees with some, all, or none of them, your thoughts are provocative. I'm not a believer in the old saw that "what doesn't kill us makes us stronger," but I do believe that what causes us to think makes us smarter.

      I wonder if Jake McCabe is some sort of solution to our LhD/partner-for-Matt-Roy problem.
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      29 nov. 2022 à 0 h 42
      #5
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      Quoting: OldNYIfan
      I'll echo GMtommyhawk from a little further away -- thanks for the passionate and informative dissertation and opinions. Whether one agrees with some, all, or none of them, your thoughts are provocative. I'm not a believer in the old saw that "what doesn't kill us makes us stronger," but I do believe that what causes us to think makes us smarter.

      I wonder if Jake McCabe is some sort of solution to our LhD/partner-for-Matt-Roy problem.


      I’m not all to familiar with the situation with Matt Roy, but I’ll say that McCabe is a solid defensive defenseman when paired with a dman who actually compliments his skillset. Last year, McCabe and Murphy were playing with each other, and it was a nightmare on both ends because there was nowhere near enough puck moving ability, and that actually created a lot of odd man rushes going against them. When McCabe played with Seth Jones however, they were both better for it. If Roy can handle puckmoving responsibilities, and you need defensive solidity next to him, than McCabe could be your guy.
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      29 nov. 2022 à 3 h 28
      #6
      GM
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      NYR more likely sellers at the TDL than buyers. The only problem there is not that much they can sell...
      Offer is very fair, but it is a no because I believe they aren't a playoff team.
      29 nov. 2022 à 8 h 38
      #7
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      Great observations and analysis. I'm totally w/ you on Safanov and Savoie. I'm also pretty high still on Michael Teply. I think he's part of the future in Chicago as well in a bottom 6 role. I really like what Davidson did in the 2022 draft and can't wait to see who he adds in the 2023 draft - fingers crossed it starts w/ Fantelli!!
      29 nov. 2022 à 8 h 47
      #8
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      For people that actually know anything about the rebuild and CHI's prospects, you are not in the minority about Korchinski. He is very promising, but I wouldn't compare him to Hamilton. Also, outside of the injury, Jones is having a much better season than last year.

      If speed, motor, and checking is the future of the third line, Kurashev and Raddysh aren't the ones to do it. If I'm being honest, I wouldn't be surprised if they are shopped at the TDL or next summer. They are good but I just don't see them fitting Davidsons ultimate vision for the team.

      As far as "Bowman's guys", I don't think it is so much that Davidson "doesn't care (specifically) about Bowman's guys", it is more so about trimming the fat and focusing more on developing and producing quality players. A decent amount of "Bowman's guys" just so happen to not be NHL quality or fit his vision for the team.

      I'm not sure how you are higher on Galvas than Regula or Mitchell, but none of them have really been anything to write home about, yet. I think Korchinski, Del Mastro, Kaiser, Vlasic, Phillips, Allan, and Roos all have a better shot at being part of CHI's future than Galvas, and he gets passed over rather quickly. I do think he can be fairly successful at the NHL level and I would like to see him get more NHL time and see if we can squeeze some trade value out of him. However, I do not think he fits the vision the way all of these other LHD's do. I would like to see Phillips and Mitchell move up to the NHL as a pair, see if their chemistry can transition to the NHL.

      Other than those things, I mostly agree with your takes. I haven't seen you on here much, if at all, but I think that, the more you hang out on ACGM, the more you will find that you aren't in the minority with your opinions. Most average sports fans don't really know anything and just yammer on about things they don't take the time to understand. But, when it comes to player evaluation and understanding the intricacies of the rebuild process and vision, a decent amount of CHI fans on here seem to know there stuff and are fairly well spoken.
      29 nov. 2022 à 8 h 55
      #9
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      Quoting: AG_sweden
      NYR more likely sellers at the TDL than buyers. The only problem there is not that much they can sell...
      Offer is very fair, but it is a no because I believe they aren't a playoff team.


      NYR fans are being so dramatic. The NYR's will not be sellers. If they are, Drury won't have his job much longer. One bad stretch or even one bad season isn't going to stop what they've built. They are a good team and will continue to be a good team for the foreseeable future.
      29 nov. 2022 à 9 h 13
      #10
      GM
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      Quoting: Garak
      NYR fans are being so dramatic. The NYR's will not be sellers. If they are, Drury won't have his job much longer. One bad stretch or even one bad season isn't going to stop what they've built. They are a good team and will continue to be a good team for the foreseeable future.


      It is not about being dramatic. This is unfortunately a typical NYR playing team.
      29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 46
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      Quoting: Garak
      For people that actually know anything about the rebuild and CHI's prospects, you are not in the minority about Korchinski. He is very promising, but I wouldn't compare him to Hamilton. Also, outside of the injury, Jones is having a much better season than last year.

      If speed, motor, and checking is the future of the third line, Kurashev and Raddysh aren't the ones to do it. If I'm being honest, I wouldn't be surprised if they are shopped at the TDL or next summer. They are good but I just don't see them fitting Davidsons ultimate vision for the team.

      As far as "Bowman's guys", I don't think it is so much that Davidson "doesn't care (specifically) about Bowman's guys", it is more so about trimming the fat and focusing more on developing and producing quality players. A decent amount of "Bowman's guys" just so happen to not be NHL quality or fit his vision for the team.

      I'm not sure how you are higher on Galvas than Regula or Mitchell, but none of them have really been anything to write home about, yet. I think Korchinski, Del Mastro, Kaiser, Vlasic, Phillips, Allan, and Roos all have a better shot at being part of CHI's future than Galvas, and he gets passed over rather quickly. I do think he can be fairly successful at the NHL level and I would like to see him get more NHL time and see if we can squeeze some trade value out of him. However, I do not think he fits the vision the way all of these other LHD's do. I would like to see Phillips and Mitchell move up to the NHL as a pair, see if their chemistry can transition to the NHL.

      Other than those things, I mostly agree with your takes. I haven't seen you on here much, if at all, but I think that, the more you hang out on ACGM, the more you will find that you aren't in the minority with your opinions. Most average sports fans don't really know anything and just yammer on about things they don't take the time to understand. But, when it comes to player evaluation and understanding the intricacies of the rebuild process and vision, a decent amount of CHI fans on here seem to know there stuff and are fairly well spoken.


      There’s a lot so I’ll address in parts.

      On Korchinski: I’m glad to see that a lot of hawks fans also see him this way as well, but I am saying that I view him with the upside to be a true #1 offensive defenseman. I think most hawks fans believe in him to be good in the future, but I see skills that only some of the best possess with enough defensive capability at his age to convince me he won’t be a liability on that end as he develops.

      On Kurashev and Raddysh: I disagree with the idea they don’t have a future here. Kurashevs ability to do the dirty work has drastically improved from last year to this year, and he’s shown he can fit roles that we didn’t think he could do previously. Raddysh fits the third line really well as well imo.

      On Galvas, Mitchell, and Regula: I’ve never been convinced by Ian Mitchell at the NHL level. He seems to be capable of quality transition play but not much else beyond that in either zone. Ive liked Regula in the past, but this season in the NHL hasn’t been what I think he’s really capable of. I think he’s got a shot to prove he’s one of the guys, but he’s not my favorite in my eyes. I’ve wanted to see more Galvas in the NHL for a long time, as I love his reading of the game and skating ability. Just give him a chance and I believe he impresses.

      Thanks for the response, really appreciate the insight. It’s been a while since I was regularly on ACGM, but I enjoy looking toward the future as we endure 7 game losing streaks.
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      29 nov. 2022 à 12 h 18
      #12
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      Quoting: Tyler_A10
      There’s a lot so I’ll address in parts.

      On Korchinski: I’m glad to see that a lot of hawks fans also see him this way as well, but I am saying that I view him with the upside to be a true #1 offensive defenseman. I think most hawks fans believe in him to be good in the future, but I see skills that only some of the best possess with enough defensive capability at his age to convince me he won’t be a liability on that end as he develops.

      On Kurashev and Raddysh: I disagree with the idea they don’t have a future here. Kurashevs ability to do the dirty work has drastically improved from last year to this year, and he’s shown he can fit roles that we didn’t think he could do previously. Raddysh fits the third line really well as well imo.

      On Galvas, Mitchell, and Regula: I’ve never been convinced by Ian Mitchell at the NHL level. He seems to be capable of quality transition play but not much else beyond that in either zone. Ive liked Regula in the past, but this season in the NHL hasn’t been what I think he’s really capable of. I think he’s got a shot to prove he’s one of the guys, but he’s not my favorite in my eyes. I’ve wanted to see more Galvas in the NHL for a long time, as I love his reading of the game and skating ability. Just give him a chance and I believe he impresses.

      Thanks for the response, really appreciate the insight. It’s been a while since I was regularly on ACGM, but I enjoy looking toward the future as we endure 7 game losing streaks.


      On Korchinski: Well, I don't know about most people, but I definitely believe he has the potential to be a true #1 defenseman. But I never believe anything until I see it. I definitely think his style is more geared toward offense, but I don't see him as a defensive liability at all. He is too smart, skilled, and fast. I'm sure there will be a bit of a learning curve and some bumps in the road. But NO player is perfect. haha

      On Kurashev and Raddysh: I just don't see it with them, yet. But, we'll see. Either way, we have enough talent on the way and the next couple drafts are so deep that I could see them being dangled for picks and/or prospects before this team is truly competitive again.

      On the young defensemen: I would also like to see Galvas. He was not even on my radar until they called him up last year and he looked right at home playing a pretty large role in CHI for a few games. I was impressed. Regula and Mitchell are right handed, though, and we are severely lacking in that department. I have a feeling that moving Jones and Murphy at some point is a goal for Davidson. Murphy could probably be moved as soon as the TDL or summer. Jones will probably take longer, but I'm sure Davidson would be more than willing to pull the trigger if Jones will waive and there are teams making favorable offers. Regula and Mitchell are both on the cusp of transitioning to the NHL full time. I think a lot of people forget how young they are. Typically defensemen take longer, but they are both in a pretty good position to take on a larger NHL role as soon as next season. Whereas, Galvas, being a left handed dman, and with all the left handed talent on the way, he will be passed on the depth charts pretty quick or moved to make roster space as everyone starts moving up the ranks, and, like Kurashev and Raddysh, before we become truly competitive again.

      For sure! I definitely appreciate more in depth and well thought out responses too. No one really talks like this on here. People are either yelling at each other or writing short cliche responses. Honestly, though, I am happy either way. This draft and the next couple are too deep to not be tanking/rebuilding right now. So, when they lose I'm cheering and when they win I'm cheering. haha
       
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