Operation Dorion Drop How to win playoffs and capture hearts

Trading 7th overall for 3 years of Fiala is so dumb. Also throwing in Connor Brown who’s worth similar to Copp also dumb

Despite the cap hit of nearly 82.5 million, the real money salary of this roster would be well below 70 million because of a combination of San Jose paying Karlsson's signing bonus, and nearly every nearly signed contract being back loaded. Most players want back loaded deals right now, since escrow is higher in 2023 than later seasons. Depending on performance bonuses, this roster will likely cost around 70 million dollars.

Pierre Dorion has one job, get the Senators back to the playoffs. If he doesn't do that, he might have NO JOB. He will have a difficult time adding to the team due to the Senators internal budget, combined with bad contracts that he has given out to players like Matt Murray.

The Erik Karlsson trade isn't about adding Karlsson. It is about shedding significant short term money. That money enables the Senators to add both Giroux and Fiala to the roster while maintaining their budget team status. Anything Karlsson does to help the team on the ice or at the box office is a bonus.

The only player of significance that the Senators lose in this roster would be Connor Brown. While Murray, White, and Zaitsev are all NHL players, none of them contributed very much last season due to injuries or inconsistent play. This armchair GM keeps the real money budget under 70 million while adding Fiala, and Giroux to the main roster. Karlsson and Labanc are also added, but it is fair to be skeptical about how much either might contribute because of injuries (Karlsson) or stinking at hockey (Lebanc).

The lines displayed aren't the actual concrete lines or final opening day roster when it comes to which prospects on 2 way deals will or won't crack the roster.

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JOSH NORRIS EXTENSION
Josh Norris signs a backloaded 3 year bridge deal at 5 million dollars per season. It would take 8 years at 8 million to get Norris signed long term. The Senators are not sold on Norris as a 40-50 goal scorer. They also think that when push comes to shove, Norris will want to stay with the Senators as a UFA due to his closeness to Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk will still have 3 years left on his contract when the bridge deal that Norris signs is over.

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2022 7th Overall Pick, 2022 2nd Round Pick (TBL), and Connor Brown for Kevin Fiala
Player/pick/prospect for Kevin Fiala. The Wild are dealing from a position of weakness because of Fiala's arbitration and RFA status (offer sheet risks). They don't have the cap space to hold on to Fiala and wait out a better return. The New Jersey Devils were rumored to be interested, but are now likely out due to their pick upgrading to 2nd overall.

They get a top 10 prospect at 7th overall, and another B or C prospect with the Tampa pick. Moving Connor Brown gives the Wild some depth at a cap hit (3.6M) that is cheap relative to what Brown brings in the top 6 or top 9 (20 minutes TOI, 53 percent D-zone starts, 50 point pace). Moving Brown also moves out 4 million in real money salary for Ottawa, which will help offset year 1 of Fiala's extension. Ottawa is also unlikely to sign Brown to an extension, since he will ask for 5+ million over multiple years. If the Wild are not in the playoffs at the trade deadline, Brown will be in demand as a rental, which will allow them to get a few more picks or prospects out of the Kevin Fiala trade.

KEVIN FIALA CONTRACT EXTENSION
Kevin Fiala signs a 3 or 4 year 8 million dollar contract extension. That will make him a UFA at 29 years old on July 1st 2026. Fiala is represented by Craig Oster. Who also represents Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk. Oster is a very aggressive agent. The NHL salary cap is expected to go way up after the escrow from the COVID-19 pandemic seasons is made whole by the players to the agents. Oster represents Sam Reinhart, who at a similar age to Fiala opted for a shorter term contract instead of a big long term deal.

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TIM STUTZLE EXTENSION
Tim Stutzle is on the final year of his 3 year ELC. He is eligible to sign a new contract starting on July 1st. He is offered the same contract as Jack Hughes. 8 years with an 8 million dollar AAV, with a 10 team no trade clause, and no signing bonuses. Does he accept that?

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Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc, and 1-2 AHL contracts (if needed) for Matt Murray, Nikita Zaitsev, Michael Del Zotto, Colin White, Erik Brannstrom, 2024 Senators 3rd Round Pick, and a conditional 2023 2nd Round Draft Pick (The pick becomes a 2023 1st round pick if the Ottawa Senators make the 2023 playoffs, and Erik Karlsson plays in 41 or more regular season games)
-Dorion re-aquires Erik Karlsson, not because he thinks Erik Karlsson can come back and be a top pairing defender, but because it clears up over 10 million dollars in salary space for the upcoming season, and is cap neutral the season after that. If Karlsson contributes on the ice at all, it is the cherry on top for the trade. The Senators give up the asset here, because that's a pattern with Dorion. Erik Karlsson's contract only becomes an issue 3 years from now when Murray and Zaitsev would be off the books. Dorion doesn't care about that, because he will be fired by then if he doesn't find a way to clear salary to make the playoffs. Not to mention, bringing back Karlsson might make him a folk hero in the Ottawa-Gatineau region.

-While San Jose has had a change in management, they still need to get assets back to save face. The only real valuable piece in the trade from the Senators is the 2023 2nd Round Pick that upgrades to a 1st only if the Senators make the playoffs with Erik Karlsson plays 41 or more regular season games. If the Senators miss the playoffs (even if Karlsson plays 41 or more games) it remains a 2nd round pick. Brannstorm has very little value around the league, but was a big name prospect a year or two ago, so he helps San Jose save face. Colin White and Kevin Lebanc both stink. They both have a few years left at big money. Swapping the two is a change of scenery move for both sides that gets the Senators the benefit of getting out of White's contract 1 year earlier without buying him out.

-In terms of the big contracts being swapped, while Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto could possibly play for San Jose in the NHL, they all could also be buried in the AHL. This is similar to the Phaneuf trade Ottawa and Toronto made a few years back. San Jose doesn't want those three players, they want out of the Erik Karlsson contract without retaining. Trading for those three cap hits gets them out of the Erik Karlsson contract 3 years earlier.

-San Jose pays Erik Karlsson's bonus. This trade takes place in July to account for that.

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GIROUX COMES HOME
Giroux is rumored to want to play in Ottawa. He signs a similar contract to the one Pavelski signed a few years ago. Pavelski was at a similar age and point in his career to Giroux. He signed a 3 year 7 million dollar contract. Let's say Giroux goes a bit easy on Ottawa, since he clearly wants to play in his home town. He signs for 6 million per.

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FORMENTON & JOSEPH
Both sign shorter term deals to buy up more of their RFA years. This is how the Senators usually handle these types of players, they rarely go long term. Like all the deals signed in this armchair GM, both deals are backloaded.

Brown is not worth what Copp was worth.

Copp had a career year, and is worth more because of his size and style being rare and coveted by playoff teams. Even with that said, Copp brought back two 2nd round picks, one with very unlikely conditions that would turn it into a 1st. It is pretty unlikely that Brown as he is playing now returns two 2nds at the deadline because he will see a reduced role on a deeper team. Maybe he returns a 2nd and a smaller piece.

As far as Fiala for a 7th goes, while I wouldn't call the above Armchair GM realistic, I'm going off of what is rumored. The Senators need to move out salary if they acquire Fiala, and Brown makes sense as a piece that would appeal to the Wild as his cap hit is decent and they aren't rebuilding. He would be a solid 1 year rental for them to offset the loss of depth in their lineup that will come this summer.

Additionally, I wouldn't call Brown a "throw in". He is additional value that is logical to send to the Wild. I don't think the 7th overall gets it done, unless the market is really soft. 7th overall is valuable as an asset, but it isn't like it's this can't miss pick. This won't be like the 2020 draft where the third tier of prospects stretches all the way past 10.

I’d rather keep the pick and overpay for Perron or Giroux or Palat. We don’t need to give up top assets for Fiala. Not worth it. Brown has averaged over 50pts last 3 years so he’s worth more than ppl think

Take Murray out and yes. We already have a massive surplus of goaltenders and do not want the most overpaid goalie in the league coming in.