If you believe KK is your future 1B C then match the offersheet... it sucks but MTL can still make it work. If you don't believe that then let him walk. This is what it could look like if the Canadiens match.
ASSUMPTIONS:
- KK shows good progression in his 21 year old season (40 - 50 pts playing 2nd line with Hoffman and Gallagher).
- KK is willing to sign a reasonable 8 year extension knowing that he got a pretty good pay day from the offersheet.
- The cap increases to $82.5M as reported.
Step 1. Match the offersheet.
- MTL can do this without issue once Weber is placed on LTIR.
Step 2. Trade Byron
- Byron is the most logical player to dump... they don't technically need the money until next season but if he's traded now for a player with a lower cap hit it would provide MTL a little more space for 2021-22... they're gonna need it to avoid bonus overages.
Step 3. Trade Lehkonen
- No cap space to retain his services, recoup a draft pick which was used to dump Byron... essentially the same as letting Lehkonen and Byron walk away.
Step 4. Sign Suzuki
- Do this BEFORE offersheets are a possibility and before you make an offer to KK. This is the same as Couturier and Svechnikov deals with a little extra for inflation (assuming the cap rises again).
Step 5. Sign KK
- An 8 year × $6.25M would be a small raise over what he is owed from his qualifying offer while guaranteeing him long term security. He might be worth more than $6.25M towards the end of the contract but he isn't worth $6M now or at the start of the contract so it all works out in the end.
Step 6. UFA's
- Habs will have to let Chiarot walk (maybe he already gets traded at the TDL if habs are out of the playoffs). Give Romanov his salary for 4 years and when that deal expires he will still be an RFA and MTL will know what his ceiling is (Price's deal will also expire by then so they will have lots of cap space). Replace Chairot internally and sign a cheap UFA... Habs have Brook, Guhle, Harris, Fairbrother all on ELC's who will be fighting for a spot but I'd rather not go over with cap with performance bonuses that would cost them when they need to sign Caufield the following year. Signed Big Z (assuming he is still playing) because that would be hilarious and somehow perfect for the type of D they would want on the 3rd pair in MTL, Ouellet is another cheap option... all in all there should be 6 players who could potentially replace Chiarot's roster spot. Brought Paquette back on a relatively cheap deal, but this spot could go to anyone from Laval as well (Teasdale, Harvey-Pinard, etc.).
Step 8. RFA's
- Already touched on Romanov, the only other notable ones are Evans and Primeau. Signed Evans to a one year deal at a reasonable price (assuming he plays bottom 6 all year), he will still be RFA when it expires as will Poehling, by then MTL can decide who their long term 3C will be. Gave Primeau a 3 year league minimum deal, with the caveat that every year is a one way so he gets more money in the first year where he'd be playing in the AHL on a 2 way deal.
Step 9. Plan for Next Year
- The big ticket is obviously Caufield. Drouin's deal will expire so they will gain a bunch of $$$ from that, plus there are several good options for MTL to trade: If Guhle and Harris impress, Savard or Edmundson could be moved, any winger could be moved (it would make sense to trade a RW, Gallagher ideally IMO). Allen can be replaced by Primeau freeing up another $2M, and the cap should rise again... so all in all there's ~$8.5M for Caufield without making any trades assuming Drouin is replaced by an ELC.
In summary, Carolina really screwed up MTL's cap situation short term, but they can get through this. Thankfully MTL will have no shortage of prospects coming up to help this core down the road.
Trade takes place in 2021-22 (ie Now). Byron can still play and he is on LTIR until January (that would be insured $$$). MTL takes back Roussel, so year one is essentially a wash. Roussel is buried in the minors and provides $400k more cap space than Byron for MTL to run a 22 man roster.
Year 2 is where ARZ reviews a 3rd round pick (ANA so a high 3rd round pick) as compensation for taking Byron's contract.
MTL could just wait and do this deal in 2022-23 but it makes sense to just do it now and just get it done with. If Byron recovers as expected ARZ could likely retain salary and flip him for another pick.
MTL can't afford him at his qualifying offer, so they should trade him, this can be any team just chose ARZ because the other deal already puts them in the thumbnail.
My suggestion would be to sign KK during the season for under 6m, instead of qualifying him at that crazy number after the season. Rumour is if he comes to the Canes, that they would extend him for around 4mil instead of waiting for the offseason. (Thats only if he wants to be in Carolina)
I agree with your above analysis but Byron won't be trade as you mentioned he is a Cap Dump...
KK ext need to be as reported by the Canes at a lower cap hit like 4y x 4,8M (6,1M/6,1m/ 3,5M/3,5M) AAV= Around 4,8M.
For the rest great explanation
My suggestion would be to sign KK during the season for under 6m, instead of qualifying him at that crazy number after the season. Rumour is if he comes to the Canes, that they would extend him for around 4mil instead of waiting for the offseason. (Thats only if he wants to be in Carolina)
Why would KK agree to that? He can just get $6.1M if he wants for his Qualifying Offer, he could hope someone gives him another offersheet, or he could hope MTL/CAR doesn't give him a Qualifying Offer and then he can take best offer available or go to any team he wants.
KK already has short term money guaranteed, so the only thing a team can offer him that would entice him to sign is long term security.
The rumour that KK will sign for less on his next deal has absolutely no merit. There is no binding agreement that KK has to do that (if there was that would be circumventing the offer sheet rules). Sure there could be an understanding between KK and CAR, but I find it hard to believe the guy that just signed a $6.1M offersheet when he was projected to get $1.6M on a one year deal wouldn't again look for the best offer available through all the possibilities mentioned in the first para6of this reply.
I agree with your above analysis but Byron won't be trade as you mentioned he is a Cap Dump...
KK ext need to be as reported by the Canes at a lower cap hit like 4y x 4,8M (6,1M/6,1m/ 3,5M/3,5M) AAV= Around 4,8M.
For the rest great explanation
"Byron is a cap dump" ... yeah thats why I took a bad contract back and gave them a high 3rd round pick, and Byron can actually still play look at the goals he scored in playoffs for MTL all highlight reel big goals.
There is no "reported extension" that's a rumour and an absurd one. Through the CBA, KK is guaranteed $6.1M through his qualifying offer (minimum $5.25M through an arbitrator). Having a documented legal extension in place at this stage would go directly against the CBA rules, and there is no reason for KK to have/honour a handshake agreement (he has all the negotiating power $6.1M qualifying offer which CAR must submit or he becomes a UFA or he could sign another offersheet if he wanted to.
This idea that KK will take less money on an extension is ridiculous... it's founded under the assumption that the only reason he got the 1 yr $6.1M offersheet was because an extension was already agreed to which would not be allowed under the CBA. KK can sign any deal he wants after this one, so why would he take less than he is owed?