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Wreckless

Wreckless
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1 sept. 2020
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 9 h 22
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Maybe... I think there is a lot of undervaluing of players going on, though. There are lots of exciting players that should be available into the 3rd round and maybe even beyond. We'll just have to wait and see.</div></div>

Fully agreed. Which goes to my point that if a team is smart, and building their team with an overall team concept, and has the right staff in place and a cohesive plan to develop their players with a long term focus, including appropriate roles, and how all the pieces fit together, then adding a player like Barron, or even Harris, can be well worth dropping back a round, when you’ll get a valuable player either way with that pick. Two valuable assets for one, with none of them being a guarantee, but all of them being valuable and having a solid shot at being a quality player long term.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 0 h 40
Sujet: Draft pick gymnastics
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Yeah. I don't listen to steve dangle often, but I have heard all that before. The NHL wants stupid uninformed fans who fork over their money. As long as the players have access to the information, they are technically fulfilling that part of the agreement.

Sucks it's all gonna be gone. I wish I could export it all to a document or something. The amount we've written on here could probably put some actual sports writers to shame. lol. I'm sure they are on here too and have taken ideas from us. I know I would be on here looking for ideas if I were a professional writer.</div></div>

I know with complete certainty that there are writers and bloggers and radio hosts in Montreal who have drafted, either directly, or indirectly, from my ideas here.
With that said, I’m not a total narcissist in thinking that I’m the only one who’s come with my ideas. They can evolve in multiple separate locations simultaneously…
But I know I’ve definitely started debates here over the years, that many others have elaborated upon, in many other locations too.

Also, as impossible it is to correctly predict future trades, despite how many among the commentariat here consistently mock many of my ideas…the trade value that both Bergevin and Hughes have been able to receive for many of our players has proven me right far more often than wrong.

Of note, the return in trade for:
Domi
Toffoli
Chiarot
Kulak
Lehkonen (still wish we never traded him, but happy for him he won a cup, much deserved)
Monahan

I’m still surprised there wasn’t more of a market for Jake Allen.

Called the Slafkovsky, Reinbacher, Kotkaniemi, and Caufield picks a month in advance for each.

Called Subban getting traded the entire year prior to it happening.

And called that Carey Price would become a hall of fame level goalie, just by watching his rookie season. Some people still laughably argue that he’s not. But then again, some people also still argue that the earth is flat.

One last prediction, that I want more than any other…

Sidney Crosby finishes his career in Montreal. Cup # 25 in 2025. And 87 in the rafters next to his childhood idols.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 19 h 53
Sujet: Draft pick gymnastics
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>I sometimes watch the Steve Dangle podcast and there was an interesting take. The NHL isn't going to help AT ALL because they're not in the business of wanting this info public. It helps the owners to not have it public. There was actually a collective bargaining adjustment years ago where these contract now have to all be public. It helped other players Guage their value. So the NHL HAS to release the information. They just don't like that they have to do it and won't help facilitate others in making it easier to get that info, BUT they don't actually care whether Capfriendly exists. It does garner more interest to the game as Puckpedia would. It's just a shame that all my 8ish years of truly treasure blessings posts will get deleted.</div></div>

IMHO they say those things for legal reasons, because they have to. But I agree with the overall point of what you’re saying. NHL doesn’t actually care. Agents do, they want all this info out there and public. Can only help their UFA clients.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 19 h 29
Sujet: Draft pick gymnastics
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jamnjon</b></div><div>If the Devils are willing to do 14+42 for 10, it's much more likely the Sharks trade up to 10 than trade back to 18. The Sharks really need defensemen and there's a strong chance one of the top 6 defensemen in the draft will be available at 10, less that one will be available at 14, extremely unlikely they're available at 18.

The biggest issue with this scenario is the timing. Some of these trades absolutely could happen at the draft, but the teams would want to know who was available at/close to their pick before they happen. I've seen mocks where Parekh's gone at 14 and there's no real consensus of the order, so it's very unlikely the Sharks trade back from 14 before the 5th pick has happened. Likewise for New Jersey at number 10. There's a reason trades moving up in the draft rarely happen outside of draft day.

The Sharks might consider that trade back if the top guys on their list are gone at 14 and they think they'll still be able to get one of the next tier at 18 (for instance, if they're targeting Jiricek he's a bit of a reach at 14 and if he doesn't make it to 18 they could look at Solberg/Emery/etc).</div></div>

Sharks should call up Kent Hughes then if looking for D. Lots of quality young D in our stable. Cost won’t be prohibitive for a couple that still have pretty decent upside and low cap hits.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 19 h 26
Sujet: Draft pick gymnastics
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jamnjon</b></div><div>If the Devils are willing to do 14+42 for 10, it's much more likely the Sharks trade up to 10 than trade back to 18. The Sharks really need defensemen and there's a strong chance one of the top 6 defensemen in the draft will be available at 10, less that one will be available at 14, extremely unlikely they're available at 18.

The biggest issue with this scenario is the timing. Some of these trades absolutely could happen at the draft, but the teams would want to know who was available at/close to their pick before they happen. I've seen mocks where Parekh's gone at 14 and there's no real consensus of the order, so it's very unlikely the Sharks trade back from 14 before the 5th pick has happened. Likewise for New Jersey at number 10. There's a reason trades moving up in the draft rarely happen outside of draft day.

The Sharks might consider that trade back if the top guys on their list are gone at 14 and they think they'll still be able to get one of the next tier at 18 (for instance, if they're targeting Jiricek he's a bit of a reach at 14 and if he doesn't make it to 18 they could look at Solberg/Emery/etc).</div></div>

Fully agreed re: timing. But GMs and assistant GMs undoubtedly doing all their required research about what could be possible in certain scenarios ahead of time as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 19 h 24
Sujet: Draft pick gymnastics
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Sure, sort of. But, it kind of is the same question because it is the same value from point A to point B. If it is this easy for CHI to move up like that, then we could just skip the middleman, MTL takes the picks, and they can use them however they wish.

But, yes, I enjoy the debate, but i'm sure we will all enjoy the end result more so. haha. Can't wait for the draft and free agency. Should be an interesting summer, hockey-wise.</div></div>

Who said it would easy? 🤔
And yep, I’m looking at the minutia, and the details of what would conceivable need to happen in order to get from A to Z.
Gotta think big picture. Most of the people here who post disagreement typically miss the point of why the OP posted something in the first place.

All of this is an exercise in hypothesis, not in pure prediction.

With you, however, I do appreciate the convo!
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 17 h 11
Sujet: Draft pick gymnastics
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>For sure. I just listed those specific picks because that is essentially what CHI is giving up here to get to 5th OA.</div></div>

Yeah, but obviously it’s not the same equation.

My point is that it’s not inconceivable that Jersey might drop back 4 slots to get their second rounder back.

And San Jose also has a lot of holes, and could use extra picks. They’ve got Macklin Celebrini, so quantity could be desirable for the rest, more kicks at the can with who could potentially develop into a solid fit for the club. That’s a decent move up in the second round, plus an extra 3rd.

Obviously there’s seemingly infinite variables, but it’s just a mental exercise. Only a couple more weeks until this site gets shuttered sadly…
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 17 h 6
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Well, I guess it is also important to note that, for CHI, our pipeline still needs EVERYTHING. haha. So BPA works, and I think there should be clear BPA's at both of CHI's 1st round picks. But yeah, if it is at a point where it isn't so clear, I am hoping for a big forward, preferably center because we need them and C's can always move to wing, or a big defensive RD like Emery. But I also think there is a chance we could take a shot on a skill guy with big upside that might be more of a project. Prospects can always be moved, so if you take BPA you can always move them down the road to help fill needs and feel more secure that you will be able to recoup on the back end.</div></div>

I agree with you completely on big centre, but anyone you get in that range, doesn’t project to be anything more than a lottery ticket for someone who can occupy that role on cup contender long term.

You have Bedard, and Chi is a desirable destination overall, so I think you’ll be able to fill that spot in either the UFA market, or trading for an established soon to be UFA looking to pick his destination of where to sign long term via trade.

In that draft pick range, I think you’re better off going for gritty middle 6 wingers, with both speed and skill. Or a super smart bottom 6 centre oozing with character. Or a lottery ticket goal scorer, who’s overall game still needs work, only way he’d drop that far.

Arturi Lehkonen is one of my favourite players all time. Love those types of picks in the late first round, second round, early third round. With Oliver Kapanen it looks like we’ve found another gem from Finland as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 59
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>With retention, Laine could land a 1st in 2024 anywhere from 12OA to 20OA straight up. Now if we are talking about retention still but future 1st round pick there is possible prospects that could be gotten but nothing higher than B type or if no draft pick compensation then it could be a top prospect. But if there is no retention then the Jackets are likely to get very little in return other than cap space but in most cases they would have to take back a contract.</div></div>

That is quite fantastical thinking. Ask yourself which players teams can sign as UFAs for 2 years at a $5mm cap hit. Giving up nothing other than cap space in return. And then ask what mental health related problems they had last year, and the probability of getting the most out of them the next two years. Laine is a lottery ticket. Yes there’s upside, but it’s a huge undertaking and project for any organization. Both on the ice, and off.

He’d have a lot more value if there was only one year left on his deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 54
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Oh, you are mistaken. Just like anyone else, I do look at rankings and read other opinions of players, sure, but I actually watched ALL of these players at length, as well. You asked "who are options I want CHI to take?" and I listed them for you. Sorry if you didn't like my answer.

What box do I want to fill? That doesn't matter, you take the best player available, and yes, it is a loaded question because we don't know who will be there. Also, I would not call Eiserman a power forward and if I were CHI I would let some other team take him.

As for the trade with the Islanders, I think people are reading too much into it. I think they were probably talking about another trade and then the pick swap just kind of fell into place. The pick they gave up to move up to both 18 and 50 was almost the exact value it should have been. It was just a fair trade to get ahead a little bit. I'm sure KD is interested in doing more, but I don't think it was for anything specific. I think he is just motivated in general to add quality over quantity and take advantage of opportunities to move up if it makes sense.</div></div>

And re: the pick swap, I agree. I see it as a smart move, gives KD more options. And totally possible that he was looking to do something else, that may or may not have fallen through. I think it’s interesting though that Chicago and the Islanders were the two other teams involved with Hughes in the Dach Romanov basically three team deal. Hughes is active right now. I’m sure he’s been talking with both clubs.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 51
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Oh, you are mistaken. Just like anyone else, I do look at rankings and read other opinions of players, sure, but I actually watched ALL of these players at length, as well. You asked "who are options I want CHI to take?" and I listed them for you. Sorry if you didn't like my answer.

What box do I want to fill? That doesn't matter, you take the best player available, and yes, it is a loaded question because we don't know who will be there. Also, I would not call Eiserman a power forward and if I were CHI I would let some other team take him.

As for the trade with the Islanders, I think people are reading too much into it. I think they were probably talking about another trade and then the pick swap just kind of fell into place. The pick they gave up to move up to both 18 and 50 was almost the exact value it should have been. It was just a fair trade to get ahead a little bit. I'm sure KD is interested in doing more, but I don't think it was for anything specific. I think he is just motivated in general to add quality over quantity and take advantage of opportunities to move up if it makes sense.</div></div>

I hear you on the comment of « best player available. »
Personally though, I find it so overused. I think you build off of organizational need, and group players in tiers, and select from need out of that tier.

Fair point for Eiserman, not a prototypical power forward, kind of a lazy description on my end. I was thinking back to the scouting report on Mike Bossy. Wasn’t ranked overly highly, because the knock on him was « All he can do is score. »
Not the worst thing in the world when you’re able to score like that.

To each their own if you don’t view team bundling the same way, there’s nothing wrong with having different outlooks on how to put the pieces together. I also view this stuff sometimes as, « I want 2-3 solid prospects with 2nd line LW potential alongside X centre who I really see there long term…
Etc.

It’s how I look at the Habs anyways. The overall puzzle is starting to look pretty clear, but we’re a lot further along in the rebuild as compared to Chi.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 21
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>That is a loaded question. There are a ton of possibilities. There could be guys who slip, there could be guys who might seem like a reach depending on how much you have watched them, and then there are some who will almost certainly go around that area.

Emery, Hage, Boisvert, Elick, Badinka, Solberg, Stiga, Luchenko, and Chernyshov, would all be great or acceptable options. Some rankings have guys like Sennecke, Nygard, and Yakemchuk going around that area, and, although I doubt they make it that far, if they are there they would be great options.</div></div>

Not a loaded question at all. I can also look at draft boards and list players one after the other. My question is what box would you be looking to fill within the composition of your team? And which player do you think fills it? I could see a scoring power forward being like Eiserman being desirable. He might also end up a bust, but I think the upside is there. But I don’t think he falls that far. Could be wrong though. Chicago is something specific moving up two spots though. Either for themselves, for someone else, or to keep trying to move up even further. I think there’s gonna be a lot of action this year. Utah has a lot of picks, and they’re gonna want to spark interest within their new fan base.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 16 h 16
Sujet: Kapanen in the fold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>I answered your question in an earlier reply:

If they take Demidov at 2, I'd think they target either Jiricik or Elick at 18. If they take Levshunov, obviously you take the best available F.</div></div>

I hear you, but assuming Levshunov at 2oa, my question is which forwards do you like at 18oa? The reason I ask is that I can make the case for multiple forward picks at 57oa who could end up just as good or better than whoever you like at 18oa, as a specific fit for the Hawks.

And Barron, I’d argue, still projects to be better than any D you could get at 18oa.

I think people often overvalue the relative difference in value between mid to late first rounders and picks anywhere in the 2nd round. Also, I think Bedard has the overall skillset that Chi can look for wingers with specific assets that might not be as desirable for other teams. And I think you’ll be fine with many wingers in the 2nd or 3rd round for this purpose.

Time will tell though.