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whateverisntaken

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14 janv. 2019
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Flames de Calgary
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Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2019 à 23 h 6
Sujet: Marner gets 11
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Price_is_the_goat</b></div><div>zaitsev has 5 more years on his term. he's turning 28 this year and on top of that his play is regressing. like he completely fell off, especially in terms of his offensive capabilities. it'll be really hard to find suitors for him unless you retain and add an asset for a team to take him. brown is a 3rd line player. good player but nothing that would entice a team to take a bad contract with term. highly doubt colorado trades varlamov. the athletic reported thye they're discussing an extension, but this was a few weeks back and the avs have fallin off a lot, so lets see, but pretty sure they can get more for varlamov. when he is healthy, he is a number 1 goalie.</div></div>

We disagree about Zaitsev's "regression". He does not fill a need on the Leafs which has led to poor usage since his rookie season when he ran one of our PP units. On a team that needs that needs a special teams defenseman (he is a strong PKer too), and has defensemen that play lower risk hockey in general (i.e. not Gardiner), he fits in well. I'm not saying he's the best #4D ... but he's closer to a neutral asset than many given him credit for.

On Varlamov I'll happily rescind my point if you say they're talking extension. I was just looking for big REAL dollars as an example and he and Wilson stood out.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2019 à 18 h 39
Sujet: Marner gets 11
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Price_is_the_goat</b></div><div>well who are u gonna trade. if u arent willing to trade nylander and marner etc, whose left? brown, kapenen, johnsson. thats it. zaitsev's contract is pretty bad because of the term. brown is only like 2mill. kapenen johnsson make under 1mill for now. who are u realistically gonna trade. marleau has a nmc/ntc. u cant buy him out either cause he plus 35.roll with it</div></div>

They will shed both Zaitsev and Brown. Zaitsev is overpaid for sure, but it's not by as much as the people groaning constantly think it is (probably by $2M). Also, in the right situation his deployment could reduce that (i.e. on a team where he isn't 5th in the PP pecking order for dmen). My view is they should package Brown and Zaitsev together and aim for huge expiring contracts this season to try to offset the "real money" component for a team with an internal cap ... but waiting until paying out Zaitzev's 1 July bonus could work too (although that comes with the activation of a limited NTC as well).

I suggested Z+B for Wilson/Varlamov in COL as a possibility ... but the negative impact on this year's SC chances might make it worth waiting for the summer.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2019 à 18 h 26
Sujet: Best Case Scenario
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>Why didn't Nylander take 6 million like his closet peers, did he really need another 1 million?

Why does Matthews force the Leafs to make him the 2nd highest paid player despite never winning any real awards or crack the Top Ten? did he really need the extra couple million?

But yes, lets screw the homegrown Toronto boy because he is playing out his childhood dream and should get paid less.

F**k that, Marner should not sign a contract until he gets paid as the highest paid RWer. it's only fair.</div></div>

1) Nylander's comparables were not $6M ... they were closer to $6.7M/yr ... and the $300k difference is comensurate with the inflation of the cap.

2) Matthews is the most prolific 5v5 goal scorer the league has seen in a LONG time. Marner is a special player, but he plays a less valuable position, and produces less valuable kinds of points (assists).

3) I don't know what you could be looking at in the contract negotiations w/ Tavares, Nylander, and Matthews and be thinking Dubas is out to screw anyone ... he's offered fair value to all of them. The proposed deal in this lineup is a 3 year bridge, and it happens to be projected as the most expensive "bridge" contract in league history, that isn't an insult by any measure. It would mean Marner still has a shot at his $11M/yr on his next contract (which the Leafs could afford b/c Marleau will be off the books). To be fair, I had the contract slightly higher on the 3 year bridge ($8.25M/yr) but that is a minor difference.

Cheers!
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2019 à 0 h 20
Sujet: Building Bridges
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ferreiiraa9</b></div><div>true, but the way he's playing now I'm sure he would want his pay day after this season. He can sign a 1-2 year bridge deal and then fall off and miss out on his big pay day. He could even get hurt and be screwed. Im sure he wants something long term or even a 5 year contract at around 10-10.5</div></div>

Auston Matthews was in a unique tier of RFA that held all the cards. Marner, while still a special talent, is not in the same tier. Other teams would have to think twice/thrice/etc. about whether he's worth an overpay + four 1sts (not so with Matthews). The Leafs ought to be able to make Marner wait through a bridge. The other pinch point for Marner in this logic is that, if he does hold-out ... he's definitely losing more than $8M in real money if he doesn't get an offer-sheet b/c he's lost a year of salary in his prime.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2019 à 0 h 16
Sujet: Building Bridges
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>Marner is both smart and confident. I'm not saying he'd take this deal...but certainly can't agree there's 'no way'. If he simply stays at his current level of production...in 3 years he knows he'll earn himself a contract richer than what Matthews is making. Hell...he might be better off taking a 1yr extension and seeing where the cap goes again next year + enjoy some of Marleau's expiring contract for himself.

4 years is probably the only term the leafs will absolutely not accept.</div></div>

Agreed with all of this. Although, I don't think they want a 5yrs term either since it means Marner expires at the same time as Matthews again. Not saying it would be an absolute non-starter, but I think it's really poor succession planning.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2019 à 0 h 10
Sujet: Building Bridges
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ferreiiraa9</b></div><div>Im sure he either wants long term (8 years) or to his first UFA year. Either way he wants Matthews money and he's not going to take 3 million less. His agent already came out saying that he won't be taking no discount. Best bet is 88 Million for 8 years and fine takers for Nylander and Zaitsev ( if even possible) in the offseason.</div></div>

Well we fundamentally disagree then. lol

If he's demanding $11M AAV, then let him try to find it as an offer-sheet. That way the compensation for the Leafs is: no ridiculous contract and four 1sts (probably from a bubble team). Marner is special, but he isn't Auston Matthews where the offer-sheets would be no-brainers for opposition teams. The Leafs only need to get through the last year of the Marleau contract and then they can re-allocate some of that money back to Marner for the future, if he isn't willing to play ball in the meantime, he can kick rocks. The Leafs should feel much more comfortable giving him the Nylander treatment (i.e. not fearing a hold-out) than they did with Matthews.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2019 à 5 h 32
Sujet: Dubas breaks his promise
I don't think there's a single trade here that is realistic.

- The Nylander return is *FAR* below anything TOR would consider.
- Why would TOR add three extra picks to take on more cap while they're crunched for only a marginal, if any, upgrade in the trade with LAK?
- Marleau is not waiving a NMC to go to COL ... and it's always funny when three picks are shuffling back and forth like someone's done a math equation. Also, Nieto is an expensive boat-anchor on possession. #donowant.
- This is not close to enough for Parayko. Sure Zaitsev *might* improve, though I dispute he was good in his first year and attribute his higher point totals only to powerplay usage, but Parayko is a top pair RHD today ... he can't be had for: 1A(-) prospect+1st+1B prospect+3rd+bad (today) contract.

I'm sorry mate, I think this is a case of back to the drawing board. Cheers!
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2019 à 3 h 28
Sujet: Splitting the difference w the defence core
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>If Gardiner had some term remaining on his contract at a reasonable salary, then it would be a possibility. However, he's likely going to get a pretty healthy raise on his extension. Kaut, on the other hand, is rights and price controlled for the next 8+ years. He projects to be a top-six forward with a top line ceiling. I can't see the Avs giving that up. Just look at the points dropoff from their first line to their second this season to understand why.</div></div>

Yea ... we agree on everything except Kaut's likely ceiling (2nd line vs top line winger). I think Gardiner can be re-signed for 6x6M per ... and I'd sign that deal as the Leafs in a heartbeat if it were feasible under the cap (which it absolutely is not **sighs**). I accept that they're weak at forward, but they aren't exactly world-beaters at LHD either, and Gardiner has shown he can drive play for 20min a night for a long while now. But institutionally I absolutely get your point. I've downgraded the pick the a 2nd (and I don't think TOR would go lower than that) but if that doesn't get it done, then que sera ... maybe I should try something similar with a weaker management team like Chia. :P
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2019 à 2 h 59
Sujet: Splitting the difference w the defence core
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>Honestly, it's unlikely that Colorado would trade Kaut for Gardiner straight up. Kaut had a solid training camp with the Avs this year and almost made the team as an 18-year old. For a team that is very shallow offensively, it's highly unlikely that they move their best forward prospect for a defenseman that may not even be in the organization in six months.</div></div>

Wow ... that would be exceptionally surprising to me. I guess I'm not as high on him as you are from the 4 Eagles games I've watched this year. I looked at him as a lock to make the NHL in a middle-six/3rd line capacity but not an asset worth passing on a 50pt defenseman for. Cheers for the feedback. :)
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2019 à 2 h 33
Sujet: Splitting the difference w the defence core
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>You're not going to get a 1st + a quality prospect in return for a rental defenseman.</div></div>

This is fair enough. I just looked at COL as a team that could afford to re-sign Gardiner too ... and they don't mistreat solid play-driving defensemen poorly like we do in Toronto (see e.g. Barrie). Additionally, they're in a real dog fight for the bottom three playoff spots in the WC so a big upgrade to their LHD could go a long way.

I also tried to balance it out by taking the anchor that is Colin Wilson off their hands, but I accept that's an expiring contract too. How far would the pick need to be downgraded do you think? They don't really have other prospects I'd be interested in.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2019 à 0 h 36
Sujet: WIshful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>ah welcome. not sure why you couldn't comment - maybe try going through 'forums' instead of 'armchair' and see if that works.

If the Blues traded Pietrangelo, there aren't many destinations that would work (he has NTC). Toronto is the obvious one, and I don't think the Blues would have any incentive to make the trade unless it involves 1 of Kap/Johnsson, 1 of sandin/liljegren, and a 1st rd pick. I want nothing to do with Zaitsev so if the cap doesn't work I'd rather retain on petro than take zaits back.

Thing is, the Blues aren't that far out of a playoff spot all the sudden (everyone else above us seems to be in free fall) so it will be a few weeks before there is any indication that they'll make a big shakeup.</div></div>

That's fair enough. Kapanen is a non-starter for me in any trade that's a two playoff-run rental. However, I would strongly consider AJ+TL+1st depending on how much STL retained. It might be the perfect solution for both sides too b/c I feel strongly that NZ usage has been what's led most to his being undervalued, and adding a top pairing dman would go a long way to rehabbing his rep.

Thanks for the tip about going through the forum, I can definitely comment from there (weird glitch though).
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2019 à 0 h 10
Sujet: WIshful thinking
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>I see we're back to 2 useless players and 3 lottery tickets for our captain eh. Blues pass</div></div>

I'm curious, what are you expecting as a return for 2 playoff runs of Pietrangelo in a world where reports are he's being actively shopped? And I don't even mean from the Leafs, just descriptions of the levels of pieces? (e.g. top 9 Fwd+1stRd pick+??)

NZ is overpaid by about 1M which is why I added the extra 2nd but he's a better than replacement level RHD.
CB is a good third line forward at a good cap hit who has been depth'd out of the Leafs lineup.
... and three high-ish picks. It may not be your best offer sure ... but I didn't think it was insulting per se.

Also ... complete aside ... but does anyone know why I can only comment in this thread and not on other AGM posts? Is it b/c I'm new?