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mikeb98

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12 juill. 2018
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM13 juill. 2018 à 0 h 27
Sujet: TB with EK - 2019-2020 SEASON
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>NTCs</div></div>

Yes, a big part of this roster involves guys waiving their NTC's, with Killorn having a full NTC until 2020-2021, Callahan submitting a 16 team trade list (likely to be contenders, who probably don;t have the space to sign him), and Johnson with the full NTC. What I have above is likely a perfect world scenario (minus the cap, which like you said in one of the posts, will probably go past 80M). Without these moves above (or something similar), TB doesn't have a lot of options for moving contracts (with Palat having a full NTC until 2020-2021 (a year too late for an ideal situation), and JT Miller just signing as you said. However, all of this is to clear cap space for EK, which as we determined is not as ideal as it seems, so realistically, only one of these contracts needs to go, and Callahan is likely to be gone soon.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 juill. 2018 à 0 h 9
Sujet: TBL Game Plan for 19-20 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If he were free, I think he'd make us a better team, but obviously he isn't, and I think too many people are focusing on the actual value of these players instead of each team's needs. Sergachev is not as good as Karlsson, but he's also cheaper than Karlsson, a lot younger, and has potential to reach that level at some point, so I'd be cautious before trading him. He's certainly not as proven as Karlsson and may never reach that level, so maybe that's worth it is if you can keep Foote, Gourde, Point, Vasilevskiy, etc. and still avoid completely destroying the prospect pool. Otherwise, we can win a Cup without Karlsson. I also think that Faulk from the Hurricanes may be a cheaper option if Yzerman doesn't want to stand pat.</div></div>

Yes, if Karlsson hits free agency then maybe things change, but as it stands now I don;t think an EK trade is in their best interest. They can make it work, but it has a lot of risk. A potential trade is Sergachev, Raddysh and picks, and like you said, Sergachev is looking to be a stud, and as of next season would make at least 9 million less than EK (and is he 9M worse than him, probably not.). Then there is Raddysh, and who knows what he could turn into. Plus the picks, and this is not even to mentio n outting your team into cap hell in the coming years.

If McDonagh didn't get his extnesion for 6.75M (which I think is a good deal to be honest), then maybe there is room for EK. But yes, a cup for TB is definitely possible, if not probable with their current roster (and for years to come).

Faulk would be an interesting option, because he is much cheaper, and has two years left (unlikely to be extended afterwards I would think), and you can hold onto Sergachev on the back end. What do you think a trade for Faulk would look like? Here is my trade for him:

Raddysh
2019 3rd
2019 6th

Faulk
2019 5th

Raddysh is exactly what Carolina would want (aside from not being a center), but he is a young, inexpensive forward to add to their forward core (with Skinner on his way out), and Faulk is the odd man out as it is, and he is definitely on the trade market. I think this one goes through, Carolina may want a little bit more for him (perhaps ditch their pick in the trade and sweeten the deal just a touch on the TB side, but I think this is a solid deal for both teams. Trades from a position of strength on both sides (TB with forwards, CAR with D). Let me know what you think.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 23 h 36
Sujet: EK, Patches, Faulk, Skinner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Do you know who Jokiharju is, a former 1st round pick 19 years old and one of the top 10 d prospects ready this year or next? Murphy can slot in a 2RHD potision. Saad with 3 years is worth more then Skinner with 1 year. Faulk is not worth more then a mid to late 1st...highly overrated player. Both skinner and Faulk had down years.</div></div>

My bad for thinking Saad was on an expiring contract, I was thinking of Panarin's contract.

If Saad didn't just have a down year, then you could be right, but Saad's value isn't very high right now. Don't get me wrong, still a solid top 6 player, but teams will want to see his stats come back up to the 50's before they want to pursue him in a trade.

Skinner had a down year yet scored 24 goals, i'd say that is a pretty good down year.

As for Faulk only being worth a mid-late first, that is ridiculous. Faulk still put up 31 points, and if they do trade him, he will get more than a mid to late first round pick, that would likely be the starting point (unless its a different package with better value).

Also, do you have a source for Jokiharju being a top 10 D prospect? Because everywhere I have read he is projected to be a second pair guy. Ottawa wants an absolute stud prospect of a defenceman (whether or not they will get that is another story), and from what I have watched/read, neither Jokiharju or Murphy fit that mold.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 23 h 30
Sujet: TB with EK - 2018-2019 SEASON
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TeaMinusTen</b></div><div>killorn hard to trade with NTC and no need?</div></div>

Dallas is not far from being a legitimate contender, and like Tampa they have low income tax, meaning it is possible he waives his NTC. As far as being hard to move, Dallas needs more depth at the wings, and Killorn would be a solid addition for them, especially for just a 4th and 6th. He has offensive upside with a strong 2 way game, and seeing as how they missed out on EK (in this universe), they have the cap space to do it.

Fair point to TB not having to trade him though, but if you look at my roster for the next year, they have to, so whether they trade him this year or the next it doesn't make a difference, just as long as they do it. Plus, this gives them some cap space at the deadline to get a rental or two to make a big push for the cup after falling short the past few seasons.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 23 h 25
Sujet: EK, Patches, Faulk, Skinner
I don't think any of those trades will go through, expect maybe the one for Pacioretty, as Bergevin tends to lose every trade he makes.

There is no way Ottawa takes that little for EK, plain and simple.
Also, Saad and a 1st for skinner and Faulk?
Skinner has had better seasons than Saad two out of the past three seasons (with the third being very close), and Saad makes more money. Saad for Skinner one for one does not go through, and at that evaluation you have Faulk worth only a 1st rounder, which isn't nearly getting it done. From Carolina's perspective, why would they give up Skinner and Faulk (who has two years let) for a guy who hasn't been as good as Skinner, makes more money than him, and is on an expiring contract with a 1st round pick (that would likely not be top ten with those additions.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 22 h 51
Sujet: OTT sells everything
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mike7856</b></div><div>Think that’s closer to the value without Russell involved. Just don’t know what EDM cap situation is because Stone is an RFA right now and will probably get a contract between 7-8 mill per. If it fits I think OTT might accept. Maybe add a lower prospect too to sweeten the deal.</div></div>

I completely forgot EDM is near the cap, while they can make other moves to create space, trading Russell in this deal makes the most sense.

Updated Trade:

Puljujarvi
Kris Russell
Aberg
2019 1st (top 5 protected) - becomes 2021 1st if EDM picks in top 5
2019 2nd (this used to be 3rd)
2020 Conditional 2nd (becomes 1st if Stone gets back to back 30-goal seasons, or if EDM wins the cup)

Ottawa adds 6th Round Pick

Would this get it done? I personally think this is an overpayment, but I do not watch enough of the Sens to know Stone's true value, and seeing as how you are a Sens fan I will go with your judgement.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 22 h 22
Sujet: OTT sells everything
I think you have over-valued Mark Stone.

Russell is obviously a cap dump, but can still play top six minutes.
Puljujarvi and Yamamoto are very high-end prospects, which Edmonton would not get rid of, due to Puljujarvi ready to enter the NHL, and Yamamoto having lots of upside. They need wingers, so Stone and the oilers may be a good match, but I can't see them getting rid of both of those guys. As for the picks, I don't think Stone is worth two 1st rounders, especially seeing as how Edmonton would be weary on giving them up, as they could be lottery picks. What about this as the trade:

Yamamoto
2019 1st Round Pick (Top 5 Protected)
2019 3rd Round Pick

In my opinion, the trade proposal you made could be a potential trade for EK (minus Russell).

Also, TB cannot trade their 2019 1st or 2nd, because they already gave NYR a conditional 2nd in the McDonagh trade (which becomes a 1st if TB wins the cup).
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 22 h 16
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 22 h 13
Sujet: TBL Game Plan for 19-20 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If you reduce the term for Point by a couple of years, you can probably get him on around a $5,000,000 deal.</div></div>

I think a 3 year deal would definitely be cheaper, however they just signed JT Miller to 5.25, and I don't see Point getting less than that, so maybe a 3 x 5.25 deal?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>That’s also more than I would expect for Stralman at his age and production.</div></div>

Fair point, I wasn't sure on him. I did 4.75 just to give him a bit of a raise, but possibly something lower. They do have Cal Foote coming up, with Dotchin projected to be top four, so he is slowly on his way out the door I imagine.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div> You could maybe reduce Koekkoek by a tiny bit, though it depends on how he does this year.</div></div>

I wasn't sure what to give Koekkoek, so I very well could have overpayed him, but like you said, it depends on his year (same goes for Point extension on that matter).

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div> I also might be under-estimating these just because I’m a Lightning fan and am internally biased to believe that players will take discounts to stay.</div></div>

To your point, almost all of TB's core has taken less money to play there, especially Hedman. It is a great place to play and live (been there a couple of times), and for a Southern city, they have a great, supporting fanbase.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If anyone could do that without losing too much, it would be Yzerman, but Karlsson’s expensive, both to acquire and to keep. Sure, he’s an elite player, but at some point you’re losing more than you’re really getting. If they lose Sergachev and Foote, and can’t re-sign Point and/or Vasilevskiy, those are huge losses that aren’t easy to recover from, especially since they’d lose many picks as well. I would much prefer to see the Lightning without Karlsson than without Sergachev, Point, and top prospects.</div></div>

I absolutely agree. EK is a great defenseman, but i feel that TB is an overall better team without him, and are in better shape for the near future as well (with extensions for Sergachev, Point, Gourde, Vasilevsky, etc.). I actually just made a post for TB getting EK and made a mock roster for the 18-19 and 19-20 season, check it out if you can, I am interested to know what you think about it.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 19 h 38
Sujet: VGK and DAL Deals
I think you are way over-valuing Letang. I can't see the Knights ever doing that deal. Erik Haula is a center-man who put up great numbers last season, and has two more years at a great cap hit. Colin Miller looks to be a solid top 4 D in the NHL, and they just signed him to a good contract. Both players are young enough that they can still grow, and both will be a part of the Knights future. This is not even to mention the 1st and two 2nd's you have in the trade above. Letang is 31 years old, and finds himself on the IR more times than anyone would like to see.

I don't think a Top 6 forward, a Top 4 (who could become Top 2) D, a 1st and two 2nds is the return for a 31 year old Top 2 D (who has a past of many injuries).

Having said that, I do believe Letang can get a good return, just not like the one you have made. The other trades seem well-constructed however, so credit for that. Also, a question for you.
Do you think Oleksiak is not a Top 6 D? I havn't really watched him play, but I noticed you have him as a depth guy, so just curious on that.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 19 h 3
Sujet: We can and we will part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>Kadri, Sparks, and a pick would probably be what the Hurricanes are going to ask for.</div></div>

This is probably the most realistic proposal I have heard. Kadri is a solid second line center (who could play 1st line if need be). He can score 30 goals, and he can shut down other teams top lines and get under their skin. At a cap hit of 4.5M for 4 more years, he is a very valuable asset, one I am sure the Canes would love.

This works for the Leafs as well, as they would love to keep their core-four, and Kadri may be under-utilized on the third line. Sparks value may never be higher, as he is unproven at the NHL level, but came off an excellent season for the Marlies, and the Canes need some help in net (not convinced that Mrazek is the solution over there). As for the pick, I would imagine it wouldn't be a high pick (if any), but maybe in the 5th - 7th round range.

I would absolutely do this deal, we get a right shot defenseman locked at a reasonable cap hit, while keeping our top six together. Great post.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2018 à 18 h 53
Sujet: TBL Game Plan for 19-20 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>I think you overpaid a few players, but not enough to get enough cap to do anything significant. You might want to take some cap off to help you with Vasilevskiy and Sergachev later, though. Gourde is also more of a winger than a center. I say move Gourde to Conacher's spot, move Conacher down to the fourth line, move Cirelli up to the third-line center, and move Volkov to the fourth-line center, as he is a natural center.</div></div>

Thanks for the input. There is still 15M in cap space (@ an 80M cap), which Vasy and Sergachev would eat into massively, making it difficult to sign some of the players on one year deals that I have above. Also, I am interested to know who you think I have overpayed (I don't necessarily disagree, just curious).

There is also always the option of trading Tyler Johnson to create cap space, as some cheaper players such as Gourde or Raddysh (depending on how well he plays) could round out the top 6.