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hpe0415

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Forum: Expansion Draft19 déc. 2018 à 16 h 38
Sujet: Nailed it. I mean, how much could really change in 30 months?! ??‍♀️
<strong>Analysis of Draft Quality</strong>

Reflecting on this, and having done a couple of mocks for the Vegas draft - I am cautiously optimistic for the Seattle Metropolitans (or whatever they choose as their name - a Cup winning name tho is hard to argue with). Compared to last year (it’s amazing it was JUST a year ago), I think that the potential for young players to be available seems greater than it was for Vegas. Maybe it’s just me, but because (with just a couple exceptions) any player currently playing in the NHL or AHL is FAIR GAME, that leaves a plethora of youthful talent out there.

But that’s the thing with talent. It’s potential. I imagine that in the next 30 months, the cream will rise to the top (and on to protected lists) and the guys we thought would be top 6 players turn out to be tweeners after all. Right now if you’re the optimistic type (like me) you’re salivating at the prospects available.

One thing I have been wondering. While it wasn’t official, most teams were working under the assumption that Seattle would start in 2020. This meant that players who only turned pro this year - think of Donato, Steel, Pettersson, Dahlin, Terry, Hart, Heiskenen etc etc etc - would be exempt! Knowing that Seattle was starting 2021, would we have seen as many players turn pro this year (particularly those under 20, obviously)? Compared to the crop that turned pro in 2017 or 2016, this year’s group at both the NHL and AHL level (which I follow closely) is head and shoulders better. While the League seems adamant that the rules won’t change, I am wondering if there will be a loophole added so teams (thinking of teams like Anaheim and Calgary for starters) can not worry about having to protect these suddenly up for grabs 2018/19 pro rookies???!! ANYONE ELSE got that feeling?

<strong>Considerations</strong>

1) Obviously this is a Preliminary Draft. I’m planning to revisit the protected list myself every 2-3 months and see how things change. Next re-draft will be in a couple months right after the Trade Deadline. I’ll look at who is new and who’s newly exposed and talk about the implications for Seattle.
***I’d love feedback on the protected lists as much as the drafted team***. I’m a hockey nerd to be sure but my knowledge of teams beyond Toronto (and the Atlantic Div generally) isn’t quite at the same level.

2) For simplicity, I opted for a 7-3–1 rather than an 8-1 split when it comes to the protected lists. I recognize that a team may opt to go the 8-1 route but in almost all cases I think that teams will either make pre-emptive trades or work something out with Seattle.

3) While it could be a fun exercise to only draft players currently signed for 2021, the reality (at least for the next 8 months or so) is that the majority of potential players are going to be on new contracts (possibly with new teams) or on expiring contracts in 2021. I did draft a few players who’s contact expires a few days after the draft. In most cases these players will likely never dress for Seattle but some I reckon will get a good offer from the Totems/Metropolitans (or whatever name they settle on).

4) Extending from 3, as most players will be on new contracts prior to the draft, it took a bit of projecting for me to pick a team that comes it at $75-90M (considering cap floor and ceiling, and that a half dozen will not be on the roster). I am confident that as budgeted this is about a $90M team, tho I reckon a couple players will be traded for picks or let loose in 2021 FA to bring that down a titch.