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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 3 heures
Sujet: Berube
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>Two thirds of marners career points are assists on matthews goals. He’s a PPG on any other team</div></div>

He's spent the greater part of 4/7 years playing with him 5v5 and the powerplay. Of course Matthews will have a great contribution to his points. Who else is he going to be passing to? The same is probably true for McDavid with Draisaitl (or any two players that have payed significant time together). I wouldn't be surprised if Marner was PPG or near PPG on CLB since they don't even have a healthy 30G scorer, but there would be plenty of other teams that he would produce 90+ points on as long as he's scoring 30+ and he's playing with a 40G scorer or two 30G scorers.
Just look at what he did in his first 3-years away from Matthews, and in his 99 point season, where Matthews contributed to 37 points (11 EVG and 9 PPG from Matthews). Matthews had 13 PPG goals that year which had him tied for 19th with 4 other guys.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>
<strong>Can Marner do it away from Matthews/Tavares?</strong>

Every good player will benefit by playing with quality talent, you won't really know how a player will adapt to his new environment and teammates though. I don't think anyone should have questioned Pastrnak since when he broke out in 2016-17, Marchand had a career-high while Bergeron had a down-year. In 2018-19, all of their productions skyrocketed giving them all career highs up to that point. If you look at Marner's production in his first 4-years, you can see that he's capable of producing with non-elite talent as long as they are the right fit. Would also see that Marner playing with elite talent is mutually beneficial. Also, that Marner and Nylander didn't connect for much in the first 4-years since they didn't really play together 5v5 in their careers much and Nylander joined the PP in the 4th-year. Edit: I was curious about the remaining 3-years: 14 pts, 23 pts, and 20 pts.

<strong>Year 1</strong>: Playing <strong>with Bozak and JVR </strong> mainly he had <strong>61 pts in 77 games</strong>. <strong>Contributions from Bozak 35 pts, JVR 40 pts</strong>, Matthews 0 pts, Nylander 0 pts (1pt in the playoffs), Kadri 7 pts.

<strong>Year 2</strong>: Playing <strong>with Bozak &amp; JVR and Kadri &amp; Marleau, 69 pts in 82 games</strong>. Contributions from Bozak 16, JVR 23 pts, Kadri 20 pts, Marleau 19 pts, Matthews 4 pts, Nylander 3 pts. Combined totals:<strong> C 36 pts, W 42</strong>

<strong>Year 3</strong>: Playing <strong>with Tavares and Hyman, 94 pts in 82 games</strong>. Contributions from <strong>Tavares 50 pts, Hyman 24 pts,</strong> Matthews 15 pts, Nylander 1pts, Kadri 6 pts. The total contribution from Tavares + Hyman is similar (slightly less) than previous year, but I'm sure he did because Marner's EV pts went up while his PP points remained similar had more even goals because the biggest change this year was that Marner was playing more minutes and I believe Matthews' was added to PP1 (Marner's PP production remained similar though) . We see that his production with Matthews has gone up, a bit which is probably that Matthews joined the PP1 unit. Tavares' production didn't go up a lot but he did have 10 more goals (beating his previous career high by 9 goals). and set a career-high in points as well (by 4 more). 37 of those goals were EV. So we see both Marner and Tavares benefitting from playing together.

<strong>Year 4</strong>: I think he mainly played <strong>with Matthews and Hyman, 67 pts in 59 games (93 pt pace)</strong>. Contributions from <strong>Matthews 39 pts (54 pts pace), Hyman 17 pts</strong>, Tavares 20 pts, Nylander 11 pts. This is likely the year that Nylander joined the 1st PP unit.


I think the biggest question for CLB, after cost of acquisition, is who will Marner play with in CLB? I thin his point totals will drop at least some, that usually happens, but his point totals are going to drop hard if he's playing with Gaudreau most likely. Based on what's worked for Marner in TOR, they will want him with a goal scorer/PWF and someone who can go fetch the puck. Bozak, Tavares, and Matthews were all good at getting possession either from being great in the faceoff circle or being a good two-way C. So, I think Fantilli (at least in the future) or Jenner could be his center, but not sure who would be the winger. The guys getting set up by Marner (JVR, Tavares, and Matthews are all LH), so maybe Jenner and Chinakov.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 4 heures
Sujet: We got cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>If the number is n the 8.5 to 9m range, maybe he contemplates a 5 year deal it if that’s all he has.

I think he’s going to get a very good offer from Boston or Nashville. Doubt it is the 9m AAV offer over max term, but it’s probably closer to the Scheifele / Horvat deal than this number

He’s the best free agent center on the market and the playoffs are showing this past years struggles are tied more to the uncertainty of what’s next rather than a regression in skill.</div></div>

Yeah, 8.5-9Mx5 would probably be a competitive offer and still gives him the time for another payday, but I would imagine that's not coming from a team like Boston but more like Utah (which could be intriguing for him but maybe not). If he doesn't re-sing in Vancouver, I have a strong feeling that he will end up in BOS for something like 6.5Mx7. I would have Nashville or Carolina next signing him in the 7 range. Then Toronto (7-7.5m) if they miss on Pesce (and other D targets) and trade Marner. The wild card would be Utah with an 8.5-9Mx5 offer. Maybe Armstrong will have a better result this time than he had with Kadri. CLB could also use a C, but they have so many NHL-ready players that need contracts, so I'm not sure the new GM will be looking to make a big signing. If he does go to CLB, I think it's for 8Mx7.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 4 heures
Sujet: Necas to Toronto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_trade_churner_50</b></div><div>He would be interesting at 2C. Toronto is not moving Knies though. They might give you 3rd round pick + Liljegren instead, in addition to the other two players.</div></div>

If Carolina didn't trust Necas to play C, then Toronto probably isn't either any time soon. Tavares would still very much be the 2C.

I don't think Toronto has the spare assets to acquire Necas in a fair deal. I don't think they will spend their 1sts on him. They also don't really have any close picks so the best would be something like Robertson + Liljegren + a distant mid pick but I doubt Carolina would accept. If Necas were to be dealt for pennies on the dollars, it won't be to another contender. Only way I see Necas end up a Leafs is if the Hurricanes trade for Marner.

I could see MTL being interested since they seem to be collecting guys like him who were drafted as Cs but never really were able to secure a 2C role.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 8 heures
Sujet: Marner for Futures Futures for players
I would imagine TB offers Stamkos a deal with a similar AAV (if not 6M+) and likely a year or more of term. If he's signing in Toronto, it's probably going to cost 7M per at the very least. I would bet that Stamkos signs with FLR if he leaves TB. He would be a short flight away from TB (if he doesn't want to relocate his family, and if he does the move would be easier), the pay would be similar (or greater), he wouldn't have to lose his number, and he would be playing for the team to beat in the Atlantic division (for now at least).

I think you forgot to add NSH's 1st in the CGY trade (Marner probably gets dealt after he gets paid his bonus). Would need another prospect, and possibly more picks.

You should probably give Lindholm 500K less and Pesce 500K more. 6.5Mx6 for Pesce might still not be enough though.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Berube
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>But how much of his production is based on Matthews and Nylander? We don’t know. That is a huge risk considering his contract. Pasta has proven his value even being away from Bergeron. Notice the only player on that list that hasn’t done anything in the playoffs…Marner. Kaprizov is the outlier bc his team has not been consistently good enough to make the playoffs.</div></div>

<strong>Marner's Playoff Woes</strong>

If we look at the guys mentioned above in terms of playoff production, it's not just Kaprizov behind Marner but also Panarin:

Last 5-years: poor Kaprisov with 0.63 (106th), Panarin 0.78 (59th), Marner is at 0.89 (tied for 33rd with Krejci), Pastrnak 0.92 (30th), Tkachuk 1.02 (18th), Kucherov 1.29 (5th), Rantanen 1.32 (4th).

Last 3-years: Kaprisov 0.75 (79th), Panarin 0.78 (72nd), Marner 1.00 (tied for 21st with a bunch of guys), Tkachuk 1.15 (15th), Kucherov 1.18 (tied for 8th with MacKinnon), Rantanen 1.29 (5th)

So despite the Rangers having more playoff success than the Leafs, Panarin has been more underwhelming than Marner (which is why trade Panarin after elimination is an annual CF event). Marner was near PPG career-wise in the playoffs before this year, and with this year he's still PPG in the last three. So his rep of not doing anything is because he's not doing enough and his team is losing. He's also thrown the puck over the glass in the same way in two consecutive playoffs a few years back that led to significant goals. If he's doing amazing defensively, I don't know that he is his shortcomings will always be highlighted. A change of scenery would do him good. Tkachuk had a worse disappearing act in CGY (career: 0.56; last 5-years: 0.67) but has turned it around in FLR (1.23). Many stars don't do well in the first round, and most don't do well when they lose a series. So considering that the Leafs won just one series in Marner's career, it's not a surprise, could be worse.

Ultimately, while top-paid players are expected to produce when it matters most and strong playoff performances help get guys paid, players are getting paid big dollars mostly on their regular season performance. So, sure if a team had the choice between pursuing Rantanen or Marner, most would choose the former unless Marner was a better fit in their system. They could also choose not to pursue either if that makes the most sense. Regardless, Marner as a free agent today would likely have over a dozen offers in the 9.5-13M range. He's worth the 10.9M.

<strong>Can Marner do it away from Matthews/Tavares?</strong>

Every good player will benefit by playing with quality talent, you won't really know how a player will adapt to his new environment and teammates though. I don't think anyone should have questioned Pastrnak since when he broke out in 2016-17, Marchand had a career-high while Bergeron had a down-year. In 2018-19, all of their productions skyrocketed giving them all career highs up to that point. If you look at Marner's production in his first 4-years, you can see that he's capable of producing with non-elite talent as long as they are the right fit. Would also see that Marner playing with elite talent is mutually beneficial. Also, that Marner and Nylander didn't connect for much in the first 4-years since they didn't really play together 5v5 in their careers much and Nylander joined the PP in the 4th-year. Edit: I was curious about the remaining 3-years: 14 pts, 23 pts, and 20 pts.

<strong>Year 1</strong>: Playing <strong>with Bozak and JVR </strong> mainly he had <strong>61 pts in 77 games</strong>. <strong>Contributions from Bozak 35 pts, JVR 40 pts</strong>, Matthews 0 pts, Nylander 0 pts (1pt in the playoffs), Kadri 7 pts.

<strong>Year 2</strong>: Playing <strong>with Bozak &amp; JVR and Kadri &amp; Marleau, 69 pts in 82 games</strong>. Contributions from Bozak 16, JVR 23 pts, Kadri 20 pts, Marleau 19 pts, Matthews 4 pts, Nylander 3 pts. Combined totals:<strong> C 36 pts, W 42</strong>

<strong>Year 3</strong>: Playing <strong>with Tavares and Hyman, 94 pts in 82 games</strong>. Contributions from <strong>Tavares 50 pts, Hyman 24 pts,</strong> Matthews 15 pts, Nylander 1pts, Kadri 6 pts. The total contribution from Tavares + Hyman is similar (slightly less) than previous year, but I'm sure he did because Marner's EV pts went up while his PP points remained similar had more even goals because the biggest change this year was that Marner was playing more minutes and I believe Matthews' was added to PP1 (Marner's PP production remained similar though) . We see that his production with Matthews has gone up, a bit which is probably that Matthews joined the PP1 unit. Tavares' production didn't go up a lot but he did have 10 more goals (beating his previous career high by 9 goals). and set a career-high in points as well (by 4 more). 37 of those goals were EV. So we see both Marner and Tavares benefitting from playing together.

<strong>Year 4</strong>: I think he mainly played <strong>with Matthews and Hyman, 67 pts in 59 games (93 pt pace)</strong>. Contributions from <strong>Matthews 39 pts (54 pts pace), Hyman 17 pts</strong>, Tavares 20 pts, Nylander 11 pts. This is likely the year that Nylander joined the 1st PP unit.


I think the biggest question for CLB, after cost of acquisition, is who will Marner play with in CLB? I thin his point totals will drop at least some, that usually happens, but his point totals are going to drop hard if he's playing with Gaudreau most likely. Based on what's worked for Marner in TOR, they will want him with a goal scorer/PWF and someone who can go fetch the puck. Bozak, Tavares, and Matthews were all good at getting possession either from being great in the faceoff circle or being a good two-way C. So, I think Fantilli (at least in the future) or Jenner could be his center, but not sure who would be the winger. The guys getting set up by Marner (JVR, Tavares, and Matthews are all LH), so maybe Jenner and Chinakov.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 15 heures
Sujet: Berube
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>Doesn’t matter about the state. Tkachuk is so much better than Marner and yet you Leafs fans continue value him as if you are trading a McDavid. Marner has a NMC, is overpaid, and a poor playoff performer. Those are undeniable facts.</div></div>

Tkachuk has been so much better than Marner only in the playoffs since moving to FLR (last 2-years). Of course, a lot of GMs would rather have Tkachuk for the type of player he is and the value he brings but that doesn't mean he's better than Marner.

Again Marner is not overpaid. Since signing his deal (last-5 years), there are only 7-players with a higher PPG rate, Kucherov, Panarin, and Pastrnak being the only wingers. Last 3-years:

Kucherov 1.55
Panarin 1.29
Marner, Patrnak, Rantanen 1.27
Kaprisov &amp; Tkachuk 1.25

After that, there's a big drop off. Either all of those guys are 11M wingers now or there all overpaid because Kucherov makes 9.5M and is producing at a rate of 21+pts/season.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 16 heures
Sujet: Berube
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>Realistically, the only trade that would make any sense for Marner would be Marner for Laine, Boqvist, Texier, and 2024 2nd. That is it. I would want the Jackets to do the leg work on an extension and not reward the Leafs. We take the risk of him leaving while testing to see if he is a fit long term.</div></div>

I was thinking the same thing except one of the other wingers instead of Texier. Wouldn't be rewarding the Leafs anything, there's a lot of risk with Laine (his injury and they can't negotiate an extension so he could be a 2-year rental), and Boqvist and Texier are change-of-scenery candidates. So, it's probably pretty even in terms of risk, I do think it would have to be someone with more upside than Texier (like Chinakov), and probably a condition on the 2nd pick that it upgrades to a 1st if the Leafs miss the playoffs and the Jackets make it.

Something like KJ+Laine could work like <a href="/users/Viqsi" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Viqsi</a> suggested, but I wouldn't imagine that happens until Laine plays some more games. By then CLB might not be willing to move either guy or Marner could already be traded or re-signed.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 16 heures
Sujet: Berube
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CakeEaterBanks</b></div><div>For me the reason I am trading Marner is because he's lost the respect of the city and unfortunately we have to admit it will never work out with him.

I know for a fact he will be elite playoff player the second we trade him but the reality is it won't ever be here and we need right shot on the point that can open up the wing for Matthews on the power play. There's a reason why the PP in February was at like 50% when Rielly was out. IT was because Liljegren QB the 1st PP. Jireck is guy that can become that and as much as I like Montour its a bad signing waiting to happen.

Maybe we trade Marner to get Artym Levnshov to get a top 5 pick but a Marner trade needs to happen and Tree and Shanty knows it</div></div>

Probably zero chance the Leafs end up getting Levnshnov or a top 5 pick. Maybe they could get pick 6, but doubt it. Even if they did get a high pick, by the time any of those guys start making any type of impact, Matthews is probably in the final year of the deal. The Leafs should definitely look at drafting multiple RHD (and Cs) in this draft with their 1st and late picks, but they are going to have to address their RHD via free agency/trade.

They reportedly want Pesce, so I don't think they will go after Montour. They'll likely take their time with finding a better PP QB than Rielly (maybe they should give Timmins a shot at a spot this year, and perhaps if he becomes a regular he can fill that role). If Marner is getting traded, then he's likely being dealt for a TWD that could fill that role like Shea Theodore, would also be beneficial for the Leafs to send Marner out west if he is dealt.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 17 heures
Sujet: Berube
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>Good lord man that was like 5 years ago. The Jackets moved on and Jarmo is gone. Jarmo tried to sign him to replace Panarin who left via FA. Marner since then has proved to be a great reg season player but a very poor playoff player. He is over paid. That deal killed his value.</div></div>

CLB has bigger issues than getting a winger, but Marner isn't overpaid at 10.9M (he'll likely be on his next deal). As an RFA he probably shouldn't have gotten that deal (or at least 2 more years), but he's lived up to it and is an 11M winger today. As much as flack, Marner gets for his playoff performance he's still a PPG player in the playoffs, and a change of scenery could do him good. CLB probably still needs to get into the playoffs before they worry about his performance, but if they aren't filling their needs, they probably don't make it even with Marner.

If there were a trade between the two it's probably Laine + an Rfa winger +, but since Laine is in the assistance program (even if he gets out he's played a limited amount of games since his injury) he can't be traded. So, the timeline for his return and a Marner trade probably don't line up, unless Marner is being dealt as a rental at TDL for a smaller return.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 13 h 49
Sujet: Draisaitl Blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>Yea that was my thoughts too, if Zacha is worth a 3rd I think removing the 1st and adding him and Poitras equals out a bit.
I could imagine EDM maybe toss you Kulak since your LHD are a little weak to equal it out a bit too (but tbh Kulak is worth maybe a 4th so it's a fairly little add/no idea if BOS even want him).

Hard to value these massive blockbuster ideas.</div></div>

Zacha would be worth more than a 3rd, the OP just dumped him for cheap to replace him with Kane. Realistically, I don't think the Bruins would be doing that swap. They are also likely not wanting to give up Poitras, and they might get away with it, even it's Draisaitl we are talking about here. The Oilers will need a C, but they could temporarily use RNH, I guess and hope that Holloway could be the future 2C. I would find it tough for the Oilers not to get a C back though.

So maybe something like

Bos: Draisaitl + Ceci/Kulak + Holloway
Edm: Poitras+ Carlo + Ullmark
3rd team: 2025 1st Bos/Edm (better one of the two picks) + Campbell