SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

exo2769

exo2769
Membre depuis
28 juill. 2015
Équipe favorite
Blackhawks de Chicago
Messages dans les forums
15695
Messages par jour
4.9
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 2 heures
Sujet: Marner and Kane
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tmljk22</b></div><div>Okay I'll address everything in order of which they were presented.

A) Listening to Toronto media about anything speculative is wild especially when the only articles written about Marner thus far have been by bloggers and not actual beat writers or national personalities. Not to mention that negotiations obviously haven't begun so anything that is speculated on is likely for targeted clicks.

B) Marner has absolutely had some serious issues in the playoffs however, he does lead a notoriously bad Leafs playoff squad in points since being drafted. Not to mention he's had some great series in the past so it may or may not be simply a scenery change that is needed to unlock something. Although I will concede that it could have negative effects on his value but they would be pretty small.

C) Marner has a full NMC which again will lower his value but not because it is present but because it will essentially allow him to dictate where he will be traded to should he be willing to waive it. However, because of this NMC, the likely course of action will follow many previous scenarios in which the players agent, in this case Darren Ferris, will be allowed access to negotiate with other teams prior to a move to try and settle on an extension. I would guess that any deal involving Marner, likely comes with an extension. If not, the odds of him being retained on said team should be quite high given that he would have expressed interest in being traded there by waiving his NMC to go there.

D) If we look at the last 5 years, there have been several star level forwards to be moved. These include (in chronological order): Hertl, Guentzel, DeBrincat, Meier, Tkachuk, Eichel.
Now I think almost everyone can agree that Marner is better and more impactful than everyone on that list minus Tkatchuk and Eichel, so we will look at their deals first.

Tkachuk: The context behind this deal starts with Tkachuk informing Flames management that he would not sign long-term and would walk come his UFA eligibility. So we have now established context that this player created full control over his destination with this request similar to the effects of a NMC, slightly diminishing his value. Secondly, he was coming off of his first elite regular season and also had a solid playoffs. Thus establishing his overall value as an elite winger. I'd argue Tkachuk in this situation would be more valueable than Marner given his age, RFA eligibility, and recent performance. However, Marner is the more polished and consistent producer making the gap smaller.
- This deal was essentially just Tkachuk for Weegar + Huberdeau
- Weegar was a solidified top 4 defensemen who was arguably the teams number 2 after a great season
- Huberdeau came off of a career year in terms of production and was poised to be great again as one of the best playmakers in the league
- Both players were on 1-year deals
The basic value of this deal is significantly more than two late firsts. Based off of deadline rental prices (which are of course lower than offseason rentals given the shortened time with player) Weegar would have likely net a first + prospect + mid-level picks at the next deadline and Huberdeau at the same rate of production would have likely net a first + prospect

Eichel: The context behind this deal is very interesting. Eichel started his latest season with the Sabres scoring at his worst rate since his rookie season before getting injured. Within his recovery window it is discovered he needs surgery on his back but the Sabres management refuses to allow him to receive a new and somewhat untested type of disk replacement. Because of this he requests a trade. Eichel has term left on his $10M contract with his future hanging in the balance of this procedure. So, we've established that Eichel is at his near lowest point value wise and because of the nature of the trade request the Sabres have a minimal level of leverage. Not to mention, Eichel has never made the playoffs once in his career. Marner's playoff woes and NMC are clearly nothing in comparison to his situation making him undoubtably the more valuable asset especially if signing an extension with the supposed trade partner.
- the deal was Eichel for Tuch, Krebs, a first, a second and a third.
- Tuch was a solid top 6 forward for Vegas and again using the method from before based off of historical trade deadline deals, would be worth at minimum a second and a third
- Krebs was a first round pick from 2-years prior and showed great promise and production in the AHL and WHL prior to the deal
- The picks obviously speak for themselves

Meier: I wasn't going to include him because he is clearly a tier below as a player in comparison to Marner but I'm rolling. Context to this deal, it was a deadline acquisition with Meier ending up as an RFA with a hefty QO price tag in the coming offseason. He was having another great season with the Sharks before requesting a trade and was hungry to get to a winning team.
- the deal was essentially: Meier + Filler for Mukhamadullin (an A- D-prospect), Zetterlund (a very serviceable middle 6 forward), a first, a second + filler
- given that this deal is mostly prospects, you can't exactly pinpoint prices like with roster players
- Zetterlund was the only roster players and would've been worth likely a 3rd + filler and Mukhamadullin is obviously worth a late lottery first

So yea, here's my complete thoughts on the matter with full levels of objectivity and rationalization based off of the information available to me. I would love to hear how based off of this information Marner is going to be worth two late firsts.</div></div>

An impressive response. Cheers! One thing, though. Most of those players were significantly younger and under RFA status. In a scenario such as the one <a href="/users/ChiHawk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@ChiHawk</a> has presented, we would essentially be giving TOR the assets they would normally get minus what could be considered a retention fee. But more of a long-game retention fee. We take him for the season so TOR has cap space, and then move him with retention at the deadline for MORE because we are retaining. CHI gets back what they spent plus a little more for giving TOR cap relief, and retaining, and gets assets that make more sense for their rebuild than Murphy and AA do.

Personally, I don't like the idea of CHI spending anything in trade for him or anyone really. Especially without having thoroughly discussed and confirmed that Marner is completely aware and on board with the idea, and will waive again at the deadline. But, I get the logic and the allure, and it could potentially be a lucrative deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 17 h 45