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dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k
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Islanders de New York
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Forum: Armchair-GM6 mars à 22 h 51
Sujet: Calgary
Both Islanders deals are pretty bad for New York. They're giving up Romanov, a pair of 4ths+a 5th & 6th, and trading from the teens down to the mid/late 20s to get Blake Coleman with retention and Oscar Dansk. Dansk is absolutely not a need for a teem with Ilya Sorokin & Semyon Varlamov signed with term; Coleman is still overpaid at $2.45M for his age 33 through 36 seasons. Isles give up way too much value to get back nothing that really makes them better.

The rest of the deals are equally bad. Benoit is quickly becoming a fan favorite in Toronto and has been a strong third pair defender who has held his own when he's had to slide up the lineup. You think there just gonna give him away for FC? Dillon Dube is worth absolutely nothing right now, and you have Colorado paying a 3rd for him? There's a lot of moves here that just don't seem incredibly well thought out.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 mars à 18 h 41
Sujet: Filling Holes - Bellemare Nedeljkovic Reilly
We thought we'd never see it again...

but "Mike Reilly for a 3rd" trades are <em><strong>BACK</strong></em>, baby!!

Isles accept, I would think. Aho or Bolduc can just get sheltered in that LD3 slot, or they can bring in another 6/7th type for a late round pick.

Ned at 3rd round value feels a little spicy - I don't think there are many legit contenders looking for goalie help (out of the teams currently in playoff position, I think maybe the Flyers, Kings or Leafs would be looking but that's it - in the east, Boston/Tampa/Florida/NYR/Canes are set, and the Wings probably wouldn't be itching to bring Ned back in; out west, Dallas/Winnipeg/Nashville/Vegas/Vancouver are set, &amp; Edmonton doesn't have the space) so you might be able to push down to a 4th here, maybe throw conditions on it that turn it into a 3rd if Ned plays 50.1% of the playoffs or something like that.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 mars à 18 h 26
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars à 18 h 10
Sujet: Wants
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>CHI probably has zero interest in adding more LD. The Wahlstrom trade is fine I guess, but I think the Isles will want to use him in a more substantial trade that adds a scoring winger. Last but not least, I doubt the Rangers are ready to move on from Kakko, a former 2nd overall pick, for so little. Much like the Isles, the Rangers will want to use him in a trade that brings back more substantial piece(s) than that trade would provide, if they even decide to move him.</div></div>

Beat me to it. I feel like if Wahlstrom is traded, it's either a 1-for-1 change of scenery trade, or they package him for something better. Donato isn't going to be anything more than bottom-6 on the Isles, like Wahlstrom has been, so I don't see the need for New York to add a pick to make a deal like that.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars à 18 h 8
Sujet: If Mayfield goes on LTIR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>I feel like the more helpful stat would be how Barzal’s line fared in the 500+ minutes without him with an alternative in his place. Because imo, Barzal’s line controlling 50.7% of chances actually seems low, especially since Barzal historically starts a pretty disproportionate number of his shifts in the offensive zone. It’s great they converted on that, but that’s unlikely to stick over a large enough sample if they’re only generating half the chances.

The fact that he requires an elite center to be decent, and still only generates 50% of the chances when that’s the case feels concerning, no?</div></div>

This is per NaturalStatTrick, 5v5, 2021-22 through today:

Wahlstrom CF% with Barzal: 50.69% (539:49 TOI)
Wahlstrom CF% without Barzal: 44.98% (807:58 TOI)
Barzal CF% without Wahlstrom: 49.82% (1331:27 TOI)

It's hard to judge the few high-end Islanders forwards on possession numbers, because so much of Trotz (and then Lambert's) gameplan was bend-but-don't-break, forcing the other team into taking low-percentage shots and aiming for higher-danger chances on offense. The 2021-22 Isles were -302 in shot differential, last year's team made the playoffs at -20, and this year's team is hanging around the margins of the race at -212 through 60 GP. Anything 48% and up has usually been the "better" side of Isles forwards over the past few years.

I wish Wahlstrom had a little more run with Brock Nelson in that time - Nelson is a very good 2C and Wahlstrom generally had good possession numbers with him, but we're talking about 98:33 together over 3 seasons - not enough to really glean much useful data from. But they generally were deployed offensively and that date looked favorably on that pair in their time together - I would hope that Wahlstrom getting time with another offensive line would bode well for whatever team finally uses him correctly.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars à 0 h 21
Sujet: If Mayfield goes on LTIR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>I know his linemates aren’t doing him any favors, but he starts half his shifts in the offensive zone and has like 6 points this year. And his advanced stats are horrendous</div></div>

When you start looking at his WOWY stats at 5v5, I feel like you can start seeing hope for him as an offensive force. Since the beginning of 2021-22, he's played almost identical amounts at 5v5 with Barzal as his center (539:49) and Pageau (519:27.) With Barzal, the Isles control 50.7% of the chances and have outscored their opponents 22-14; with Pageau he's down to 43.4% of the chances and only a 20-19 GF/GA. Numbers get worse when you look at the 100+ minutes he's inexplicably spent on Casey Cizikas' wing in that time.

It really comes down to not trying to fit his square peg into a round hole - if you accept the fact that he's going to occasionally have a defensive issue, I think you're gonna wind up with a very good offense-first winger.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars à 19 h 29
Sujet: Not enough fire power
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habitantlecolon</b></div><div>Nino is not a cap dump but a great cap-controlled salary. You guys need to stop babbling about dump and cap when you're barely making it plausible!</div></div>

Not saying Nino is a dump, but saying that Pittsburgh is eating $3M of Guentzel's salary -and- taking back 3x$4M of Nino. Considering they've got Guentzel on LTIR and only have about $3.7M in space, I don't think they can add Nino &amp; eat that much cap without having to dump someone else - and considering that the Jets wouldn't be able to acquire Jake and keep Nino's AAV on the books in this ACGM, they also would have to find a space for him. If a big part of acquiring the player involves moving that salary, and the team acquiring the player doesn't have the room to take on that salary, then there's got to be some sort of consideration made.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars à 16 h 6
Sujet: Jackets Blockbustah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stealthicus</b></div><div>Ya'll didn't even read the part where I said Brodie would only go to be able to be retained and flipped to a contender in another deal. And Kampf isn't an expiring FA.. Him and Kuraly are both 4C type guys.. Except Kampf is younger and has 2 more years of term on his deal. Kuraly just being a more bite guy would be ideal and more beneficial to the Leafs being a shorter term deal.. For CBJ getting a solid bottom 6 reliable C for the next few years of a rebuild... Both guys cancel each other out in the deal essentially.</div></div>

So if those two cancel out, you have the Jackets giving up their 1C and a top-4 DFD for a pending UFA they don't need in Brodie, a middle-6 winger with a long injury history, a pair of lottery ticket prospects, and a 7th D in addition the 1st. There's really nothing enticing there beyond the 1st - it's long been said that Columbus needs an overpay to move Jenner and that's not here.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 mars à 12 h 35
Sujet: Retool for one final push
-Doesn't make sense for Carolina to trade a current lineup positive for a rental. I think you could do Morrow &amp; a pick for Guentzel fully retained but they're not going to move their 3rd best scorer at the deadline. Contenders typically aren't going to want to subtract from their top-6 at the deadline, even if they're bringing in a better player.

-I think Colorado would consider it but I wouldn't think they're giving up Behrens for a rental backup goalie and a 7th D type. I think it would be more likely that they do a mid-round pick for Ned and strip away all the extra moving parts here.

-No idea why the Islanders do this. Even ignoring the NMC that probably only gets waived for a legit contender, you have the fact that Carter has been bad, the fact that the Isles have more than enough depth at C (Horvat-Nelson-Pageau-Cizikas with Barzal ready to slide back over from wing if necessary) and the fact that the Isles have very limited cap space and have more pressing needs.

-As a Jets fan said upthread, Smith would be an interesting fit but kind of handcuffs them this summer. They only have about $13M available with 11F / 4 D / 1 G under contract next year and Cole Perfetti needing a new deal. I think that if he's a rental, it's a go; but the extra year of term actually makes it tough for the Jets to go ahead.

-Same as above - I can't see the Knights moving a solid middle 6 player in Stephenson to bring in a modest upgrade to Malkin. Stephenson's in the last year of a $2.75M AAV deal and has 36 points in 57 GP; Malkin has two more years at $6.1M and has 45 points in 58 GP. It's a modest increase in production for more than double the cap hit, with extra term that will make this summer harder for the Knights (similar to Winnipeg, they only have about $13M in cap space this offseason), and they're adding in a 2nd rounder for all of that. VGK passes.
Forum: NHL2 mars à 21 h 30
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Kinda funny, that the Isles a few years ago, were barely out of playoff spot at TDL They didn't trade Tavares, and still missed the playoffs. And somehow the Isles fans blame Tavares leaving as a UFA. Isles management had a choice to be sellers but didn't.</div></div>

See - the reason that Isles fans blame Tavares for that is because it was widely reported at the time that JT specifically asked *not* to be traded at the deadline. They were 4 points behind CBJ for the last playoff spot at that year's deadline and were (amazingly) 5th overall in the league in goals scored - but they were awful defensively. They even made a few trades at the deadline to shore that up, bringing in Brandon Davidson for a 3rd and swapping Jason Chimera's speed for Chris Wagner's sandpaper in the bottom-6.

Most Islanders fans were on board with that plan, since the goal was to extend Tavares in the offseason and trading him away at the deadline would make that pretty damn hard. We all know how that free agency turned out, and we don't need to re-litigate all of that, but it's not like they had their head in the sand over everything.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 mars à 21 h 0
Sujet: Sweenius strikes again
-Sens pass. *If* they wanted to move Brady they could do much, much better than this. I would assume a pair of 1sts, a top line/pair roster player, and some cap going back would be the package for a guy like him. This doesn't really fit that bill.

-I think Calgary would probably prefer a lottery ticket pick or prospect for Rooney but at the end of the day I don't think they'd be upset if this was the deal.

-I think Grz can get more honestly; Devils might not be the right landing spot but if you need to move him I'm sure some Western Conference contender would spit up a 2nd or 3rd and a B-level prospect.

-Not sure how much value the Flyers would put on Lauko/Wotherspoon but I think a 3rd for Seeler feels about right.

-This feels like a slam dunk for Seattle and a weird deal for the Bruins. Merkulov for Driedger &amp; Wennberg feels steep - Driedger is buried in the AHL and I'm sure Seattle would more or less give him to you at this point, and while Wennberg might have some value, he's more of a 3C than a top-6 kinda guy to me. Feels like you could throw Seattle the 4th for retaining on Driedger and add a lower tier prospect, and then you could go out and throw that other 4th out there for a guy like Colin Blackwell, Sam Carrick, or Travis Boyd instead of paying to bring in + retain on Wennberg. Same draft pick cost, but now you're sending out a guy further down the totem pole and hanging on to a potential middle-6 guy on an ELC in Merkulov.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 mars à 20 h 44
Sujet: Has Toronto ever had a real 1st pair RIGHT hand defense
-Caps say no - I would think if they're moving Carlson it would be for picks &amp; prospects, not for another veteran at a position they have decent young options at.

-Islanders say no. They don't have the cap space when everyone's healthy and they're far enough back of the playoffs that they shouldn't be giving up higher picks for rentals.

-Flyers probably say no. The 1st is three drafts away and Robertson hasn't shown off much of his offensive upside at the NHL level yet.

-Timmins isn't worth a 3rd, certainly not to a Blackhawks team that is more about development this season. They can either call someone up from the AHL or pick up a body during one of the rental deals they're sure to make instead of giving up an asset for a lottery ticket.