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CaseyFlyman

Membre depuis
7 sept. 2018
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Blue Jackets de Columbus
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Bruins de Boston
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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: A Mutually Worked-Out Marner to CBJ Trade - TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>But there are numerous examples from all of these other teams where players choose these teams over other suitors. Panarin and Fox chose New York over an entire league looking to woo them. John Tavares chose Toronto even though San Jose offered him more money. Sure you can say he only wanted to sign with his hometown team, but that's the point. There's not a lot of NHLers from Ohio.

If it were just a few examples of players choosing other teams over Columbus, it wouldn't be that big of a deal, until you realize that no one really ever chooses Columbus. Gaudreau is the exception. Horton too, I guess. Most other teams have a ton of counterexamples.</div></div>

I mean, sure, there's not a lot of players from Ohio yet that are signing in Columbus because it's the hometown team, but...that also almost never happens? Tavares was an exception, not a rule.

The reasons not to sign in Columbus are because it's one of the newest franchises in the league, hasn't had a ton of success, and is a historically smaller market operating on an internal cap. That could be any franchise, and the budget/internal cap is finally changing as the market grows. The only reason Florida isn't looked at the same way is because of the beach and tax situation.

Hell, far more players have explicitly chosen not to play in Canada (NTCs frequently list mainly Canadian teams) just because of higher taxes and tighter regulations, yet ~41% of NHLers are Canadian. Ottawa and Buffalo are far more dysfunctional organizations at the moment, and Utah would be on that list if they hadn't just gotten here.

My point is, it's never about legitimate gripes with Columbus as a destination, any reasons to avoid signing here for that reason exist in other markets in the NHL. There's plenty of good reasons to sign here, as we've seen with JG, Werenski, Jenner, Rick Nash (who's returned to live here and work in the FO), Cam Atkinson (who invested heavily in the community), and countless others. It's always disingenuous people trying to dunk on Ohio for some reason to feel better about themselves when in reality it's a great place to live and great hockey market with plenty to offer. The narrative needs to die because it's disingenuous and always applied in a "f*** you" kind of way.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 17 heures
Sujet: A Mutually Worked-Out Marner to CBJ Trade - TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>Now reconcile that with all the players that had no interest in re-signing there and/or were disgruntled playing there. Bobrovsky, Panarin, Duchene, Gaborik, Carter, Dzingel, Dubois. And those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head.</div></div>

If your examples are a player with a very specific destination he was set on (Panarin), two guys from a decade ago (Gaborik, Carter), two UFA TDL rentals (Dzingel, Duchene), and two players who, at different times, chased money and were/are widely regarded as one of the worst contracts in the league (Bob, Dubois)...maybe the narrative doesn't fit.

I mean, just last year the Leafs failed to retain Bunting, O'Reilly, Holl, Lafferty, Acciari, and Gustaffson. Should we start looking into the "no one wants to stay in Toronto" narrative? No, of course not.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 20 heures
Sujet: All options are open 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jberney1</b></div><div>Good feedback… I thought about that with the picks..

As for Marner to Vegas… I have a feeling they will lose either one of Stevenson or Marchy or both.. I considered throwing another Vegas player in over the 1st rounder… that may even out the cap concerns… if I’m going to have to eat money… another player may do that instead… but I guess depends what Vegas wants… Marner at his age make be fit over an older Marchy

Thanks !</div></div>

If Vegas does end up losing one or both of Stevenson or Marchy, they might actually be good Leafs targets...though they'll be highly sought-after, so it's probably an overpay on the deal. I'm not as familiar with their roster so I'm not going to suggest other players to target, though it does feel like Vegas is a frontrunner to get Marner.

FWIW, this is one of the more rational Leafs ACGMs, as well as one of the better Leafs rosters, I've seen on here in a bit. I think you're on the right track! It would be fun to see both Tanevs end up on the Leafs next year somehow.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 21 heures
Sujet: Oilers need a better goalie 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>Take a closer look at Campbell's contract and you'll see why he's a bad choice for that role.</div></div>

I'm aware there's a dozen better options for that role, and also aware the Oilers wouldn't ever spend their first just to dump a contract.

However: it's a front-loaded deal, so it's only $13.5M total for a $5M/year AAV, which ownership would like, and we'd be using Campbell as the vet backup for one year where the cap doesn't matter; it's able to be buried, too, if he's not adequate.

If it doesn't work, it's another buyout on top of Elvis' for a goalie with a 10-team NTL. There's definitely more reasons not to do it, but if it actually got to the point where we successfully moved Elvis and were offered a 1st, it's not the worst option IMO. But I also don't think Campbell is toast.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 23 heures
Sujet: Marner trades that make some sense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>T0R</b></div><div>You’re Definitely closer &amp; I understand your point so i’ll raise my own, what about Merzlinkins 50% retained?, I know he has what 2-3 more years, it would only be 2.7 in retention &amp; he has shown the ability to perform at the NHL level previously, it's just that was 2-3 years ago but I think it is fair to place that on the team around him more than just his abilities as a Tendy &amp; with Woll being a 50/50 &amp; no real upgrade available unless the Leafs get Saros from Nashville for Mitch (which negates this whole thing lol), I think Merzlinkins would be someone Brad would look to acquire in this deal as well so

KJ+Laine+ Provorov 50%+ Merzlinkins 50% for MM + Liljegren + a 4th</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>I think the only flies in that ointment are that KJ is unlikely to be traded while recovering from major surgery, and Marner's own preferences.</div></div>

This, too. The trade would obviously be dependent on all 3 of Marner waiving for Columbus, KJ being healthy enough to start the season (and likely make training camp), and Laine being out of the NHL PAP. It would probably be a late-summer move when those 3 variables are more clear.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 23 heures
Sujet: Marner trades that make some sense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>T0R</b></div><div>You’re Definitely closer &amp; I understand your point so i’ll raise my own, what about Merzlinkins 50% retained?, I know he has what 2-3 more years, it would only be 2.7 in retention &amp; he has shown the ability to perform at the NHL level previously, it's just that was 2-3 years ago but I think it is fair to place that on the team around him more than just his abilities as a Tendy &amp; with Woll being a 50/50 &amp; no real upgrade available unless the Leafs get Saros from Nashville for Mitch (which negates this whole thing lol), I think Merzlinkins would be someone Brad would look to acquire in this deal as well so

KJ+Laine+ Provorov 50%+ Merzlinkins 50% for MM + Liljegren + a 4th</div></div>

Haha I like how we're inching closer!

Elvis is kind of a prime buyout candidate, he's a decent 1B who has shown flashes, but he's been inconsistent. Honestly, he is the type of personality that would THRIVE in the Toronto spotlight. The only hangups on retaining are that a buyout is ~$1M cheaper per year (minus year 3 where it's ~$200K more expensive) and we'd be eating up a retention spot for 3 years. Merzlikins you could have for free, but with retention it's probably a mid-rounder in value coming back.

That said, the more I think about it, Liljegren is a good offset for Elvis. He's more valuable than a retained Elvis, but also redundant on a Columbus team that already has Jiricek, Severson, Gudbranson, and especially Boqvist on the right side. If he's in the deal because of salary and value, I think that's fine, but he doesn't add too much to Columbus in terms of need. Columbus almost certainly moves him or Boqvist (or both) for additional picks.

Overall, I think KJ + Laine + Provorov @50% + Elvis @50% for Marner + Lilly + a 4th would work, anything else would really be tinkering around the edges. Now we just have to submit it to the rest of the fanbases for approval. :)
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 23 heures
Sujet: Marner trades that make some sense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>T0R</b></div><div>The thing is I can see Trelicing pushing heavily for Mateychuk especially since the Jackets left side is kinda full with Provorov &amp; Werenski or that 4th overall pick to get Sam Dickinson or one of the other incredible D prospects,

So I would say Final deal would be

Mitch Marner 25% &amp; a pick (you decide that) for Kent Johnson, Patrick Laine &amp; Mateychuk or Pick #4, I’ll explain my philosophy with giving up Pick number 4 basically you have a stacked prospect pool &amp; Mitch Marner is a Top 10 Winger in hockey at his best, which is the ceiling of almost anyone picked around that spot but another guy I can think of that also makes sense is Merzlinkins due to the Leafs goaltending situation</div></div>

The biggest issue I'd have with that is that Provorov feels like the most-likely piece to be moved (i.e. "not a part of the long-term future"), where Mateychuk is penciled in as 2LD behind Werenski...forever. Would it make more sense to just send Provorov as part of that deal over Mateychuk? The Leafs would get a solid two-way 2LD that can play in all situations and stays healthy, who also fits the same age window/timeline of the core while Columbus keeps the younger guy who fits our timeline.

Columbus would retain half on Provorov, and I don't know that we even need retention on Marner if Laine is going the other way. I get the philosophy for 4OA, but 1) just because we have a stacked prospect pool isn't a reason to give away additional quality pieces, 2) you're already getting two pieces like that in Johnson and Laine in this deal (5OA and 2OA) and 3) I don't think this team is a Marner away from competing. There's so many pieces that still mature, we'd be looking at a 6ish year window starting in 2 years with both Marner and the 4OA selection.

Keeping Provorov and adding Marner would be win-now moves for a team that can't win now, given the age of half the roster. We still need maturation and growth to get there. I think if it got to KJ + Laine <em>and</em> Mateychuk/4OA, Columbus balks and just says send him elsewhere (which Toronto would very much have every right to do).

I could see KJ + Laine + Provorov (50% retained) for Marner + pick, probably anywhere from 2nd round to 4th round. Are we getting closer?
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 24 heures
Sujet: Brady Tkachuk Trade Comps
First and foremost, this is incredibly impressive, so nicely done! That's a ton of research into these comps.

To comment, first:
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>leafs101</b></div><div>But this is a big overpay. Marner is worth worlds more than Huby was - at the time Huby was 30, just as soft in the playoffs, and a defensive liability. Mitch is a 27 year old selke finalist. It’s just not apples to apples.

PLUS, Huberdeau didn’t come with an extension in place which, not saying Mitch will for sure, but if he’s only waiving for certain situations you’d have to think he’d want to pre-negotiate a deal as well, only driving the price for him higher. Huby had no trade protection if I remember correctly.

On top of that it’s Brady for 4yrs term vs Matthew for 8. </div></div>

to play Devils' advocate here, some of what Huberdeau gives up to Marner is made up by the gap between Weegar and McCabe. He was coming off two incredibly strong seasons where he looked like a top-pairing, shutdown RD. And he's still been excellent in Calgary. McCabe would be older than Weegar was at the time of that trade, and isn't near the talent/producer Weegar is.


Secondly:

There's a lot of pain in the CBj comps here. The J*** C***** trade is arguably the worst in franchise history, and he'd continue to get boo'ed in Columbus if he played until he was 80. That said, Marchenko doesn't quite have Voracek's pedigree, and Tkachuk is better than C*****. I'd consider it, but with the fear of that trade lingering in the background.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 9 h 40
Sujet: Marner trades that make some sense
OP, you're one of the Leaf fans on here I've seen that engages in some thoughtful discourse, so I'm wondering what a Marner trade that makes sense for both Columbus and Toronto would look like.

Some of the caveats from Columbus' end:
1) 4OA wouldn't be available, but a top-10 protected 2025 1st absolutely would.
2) Johnson would make sense to go the other way.
3) Columbus has a similar player signed long-term already in Gaudreau, and another expensive winger in Laine, so Marner is already redundant...but, even though JG isn't going anywhere, Laine might.
4) Werenski, Jiricek, Jenner, and Fantilli are untouchable, so if Toronto views one of those pieces as being necessary in a return, I think discussions end there.
5) Marner has to come with an extension (assuming he even waives), which would likely be 8x$12M?

To avoid getting into a Toronto-like situation, I think Laine should be going the other way, but he's not the centerpiece of the deal. I'm thinking something like: Laine, Johnson, and Ceulemans for Marner and a pick?