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b_sully1996

Brennan
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29 mai 2019
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM3 juill. 2019 à 12 h 44
Sujet: New Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div>I didn’t say Marner was the same ilk as those wingers and I did not use them as contract comparables. My point was that they drive play despite them not being centres and they were awarded their contracts for the deserved worth, accordingly.

Comparing Tavares’ previous wingers to Marner is a false equivalency in my opinion. None of those players possessed the same hockey IQ or cerebral decision making that Tavares did. He brought them up as far as he could but on their own they could not effectively impact a line. Marner however has proved the exact opposite to date. Every linemate he’s played with over consistent periods (ex: more than 20 games) have had career years with Marner in terms of points and/or goals. Go look at Kadri, Bozak, JVR, Hyman and Tavares’ numbers before and after playing with Marner - there definitely is a statistically significant trend.

So finally Marner and Tavares play a year together on the same line and the result was that they complemented each other extremely well. Both players hit career highs in points and Marner enabled Tavares to hit a career high in goals - which as you said is more important than assists. Well Tavares doesn’t crack 40 goals if it’s not for Marner. It’s an inter-dependent relationship and it benefits the Leafs. And because Dubas has set two RFA precedent deals (Matthews and Nylander) with paying players for potential and not for current worth it leads to one likely end result. Marner getting paid eight figures.</div></div>

Sure, Marner is definitely the highest quality winger that Tavares has ever played with. However, without Tavares, he wouldn't have produced close to 90 points - just look at the advanced numbers. Tavares only exceded his career high in points by 2 this season while playing with Marner. Mitch exceded his career high by 25 points while playing with Tavares this past season. I'm not paying a winger north of $10 mill when he relies so heavily on his centreman to produce. Marner, on his own, would not have been able to command 8 figures without flanking JT last season. 70 points can't make you 8 figures when the cap is at $81.5 mill.

I believe we could make a compromise. I think we can both agree that his primary stats may require $10 plus mill to the layman with a quick look at his hockeydb page but his advanced statistics say otherwise. How about $10 mill x 7 years? Or $10.3 mill x 8 years? If I'm breaking the 8 figure threshold, I want more UFA years under team control.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2019 à 17 h 40
Sujet: New Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rush5154</b></div><div>Aho signed a Grade 3 offer sheet which is minimal in terms of compensation - just a first, second and third round pick. For Marner to sign an offer sheet it would have to be a Grade 1 offer sheet - four first round picks for compensation. Not many teams have the balls or the picks or both to pull that off. And enough of the centre &gt; winger argument. Look at the past decade of MVP players in the league. Half of them are wingers because they can drive play. Are you telling me Patrick Kane, Kucherov and Ovechkin all went into their contract negotiations and said “I guess you have to give me less cause I’m just a winger...” - of course not. They all got maximum value because they’re game breakers. Give your head a shake</div></div>

Marner is not in the same ilk as Kane, Kucherov, and Ovechkin and if you think that than you may need to be admitted to an institution. Marner would not have had 94 points last season if he wasn't flanking Tavares. JT has increased his wingers' production throughout his career and is the one who drives production on his line. The minute they leave Tavares's side, they become far less effective players (see Okposo, Moulson, Parenteau, Bailey, etc.). To prove this, compare Tavares's and Marner's advanced stats. Tavares's Corsi for % is 51.69 without Marner on the ice while Marner's is only 39.06 without Tavares. Tavares's scoring chances for % was 54.22 without Mitch while Marner's was a measly 39.76. Similar percentages are true for expected goal % and high danger Corsi for %. Also, goals are worth more than assists in this league and Marner hasn't proved he can score more than 26 goals. I'm not paying a 26 goal scorer who has his production elevated by his centreman $10-12 mill. Maybe, you're the one who should give your head a shake and not overpay players in a cap era who aren't worth it.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 juin 2019 à 9 h 9
Sujet: Proposed Kapanen and Johnsson deals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>And the Leafs aren't in the same corner? Then by your logic why obtain Miller is he's a healthy scratch? And obtaining 3.875m Miller forces the Leafs into playing Sandin/Liljegren who are not NHL ready.(</div></div>

Because even though Miller has defensive flaws that rival Zaitsev's, he can exit the zone on the right side, which the Leafs d-corps could not seem to do last season. Vegas had more depth on the back end and had the luxury to play other d-men on the right side instead of Miller. The Leafs do not have that luxury. The Leaf's RD last season (Hainsey, Zaitsev, Oziaghanov) had major issues exiting the defensive zone. They resorted to religiously moving the puck to their LD partner or icing the puck. This made the Leaf's zone exits very predictable and easy to defend. I think adding a decent puck mover on the right side is worth his cap hit, can eliminate SOME of the RD zone exit issues, and adds another element to their offense.

In regards to Sandin and Liljegren, both have taken major steps with the AHL Marlies last season, especially Sandin. They are projected to compete for spots in training camp this year. It was even rumoured that if Liljegren didn't get injured mid-season, he could have made the jump to the NHL before the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 juin 2019 à 8 h 57
Sujet: Proposed Kapanen and Johnsson deals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>He is definitely NHL player and after overpayments on july 1st, his contract would become really good. Especially after Myers signs his reported contract.</div></div>

That's true, after the monster deals coming in the next couple weeks, his cap hit will be more digestible relative to other d-man cap hits. My problem is the Leafs need a RD who can exit the zone. Zaitsev continually passed the puck to his LD partner or iced the puck. This made the Leafs zone exits very predictable and easy to defend. It wasn't just Zaitsev however, I had the same issue with Hainsey and Oz. Seemed like the Leafs could never move the puck out of the defensive zone on the right side.

He also wants out of Toronto.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 juin 2019 à 8 h 46
Sujet: Proposed Kapanen and Johnsson deals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Then I have about 4m in cap space to find a NHL competent Dman Gee, I'd would sign Hainsey. And if the Leafs really wants to free money for a Dman, a forward may have to traded, but so many Leaf fans don't want to that.</div></div>

The problem with Hainsey is that he's a LHD playing on the right side which is an issue in the 2019 fast paced NHL. Pinches in the offensive zone become more difficult and it takes a split second more to switch to his forehand to make a play. This can result in turnovers, more blocked shots/passes, and odd man rushes the other way. I also don't trust Babcock to play Hainsey where he's supposed to be played - on the 3rd pairing LD. He also needs to move the puck to his LD partner (usually Rielly) to make a zone exit. This makes it easy for opposing teams to defend against - just look at the Boston series over the last two years.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juin 2019 à 9 h 15
Sujet: CapCrunch20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chiller</b></div><div>The Good and the bad yet again?&gt;?
1. Marner: I very much dislike Marner at 10Mil. His comparables of Kane 2nd contract, Point, Rantanen. I mean Mitch, his agent and Dad are doing a pretty good job with the media screwing **** up. Hard to get a read. Cant fault you or anyone for stating 10Mil, i Just really really think it should be 8.75-9.1. And all t hese rumors are fustrating as hell.
2. Ziatsev: I think we will be shocked at the return ziatsev yeilds. Braun is terrible and landed like a 2nd and some change. I think people want him and we can get way better than a 7th and some dude. Vancouver is crazy so who knows.
3. Dont mind the AAV and term for Mango, Kap and Talbot.
4. Sparks - Agree'd maybe a 6th.. maybe. Or just put him in the AHL and assume no one will claim him.
5.Pesces - I dont know how to grade the trade. Is Pesces good? Is that enough? I have mixed feelings, like he is a not as good Gardiner with more mistakes but still flashes of oh wow. IF all of carolinas D are available, and IF reports of Hamilton being weird and awkward are actually a cause to get him out... id rather the leafs Pay a crap ton more and get him over Pesces. HEard the GhostBear is also potentially available and Philly is freakin ccrazy right now.
6. Miller - seems good, i assume they might want a buryable AHL guy rather than a guy who needs to clear waivers, but that is splitting hairs here.

D overall looks alright and better than last years.
Forwards- Wings look weak, and I am less confident about them. I would love to find this years Tyler Ennis. But that left wing--oooff. But again wingers are the cheapest and most easily obtainable position so its easy to rearrange the deck chairs if someone doesnt work out.</div></div>

Thanks again for your feedback!

1. I agree with you that Marner is not worth $10 million and deserves to be slotted in the range you had. I wanted to make this Armchair GM as challenging and realistic as possible which is the reason I had him at $10 million to give myself less wiggle room.
2. You're 100% right about the Leafs possibly getting a decent return for Zaitsev. I actually published this roster a few hours before the Braun trade so if I would have had that knowledge prior to creating this, I probably would have made that trade entirely different. Fletcher has really lost his mind. Hahahaha.
3. I went after Pesce because he's controlled for many years at a relatively cheap cap hit for a top four d-man. The Leaf's need to acquire a cheap top four d-man who plays the right side because of their cap crunch. The reason I gave up quite a bit for Pesce is because I feel that the term and dollar amount on his contract make him slightly more valuable.

Looking forward to see how inaccurate my roster is in the coming weeks. Hahaha.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 juin 2019 à 18 h 31
Sujet: Ottawa Trade alot of moving parts
I really like your roster moves. One of the better adaptions of the Leafs I've seen.

My opinion:
1. I think the kicker of a 1st and a 2nd rounder to take Zaitsev is a bit too high, even with the return, especially when it sounds like some teams see value in him and other mediocre d-men (ie. Esa Lindell) are signing for a similar AAV. (Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd/4th rounder?)
2. I think the Brown trade is pretty accurate and I expect his return to be similar to what you predicted.
3. The return for Sparks is a tad rich, especially after the numbers he put up last season. I can't see the return for him being any more than a 6th/7th rounder. (This one was a bit nit-picky on my part)
4. I really like the creativeness of the Pesce deal. Satisfies both the Leafs (right-handed d-man) and Canes (scoring forwards) needs and I believe it is relatively fair for both teams involved.
5. The kicker on the Marleau deal seems pretty accurate - that will definitely be the hardest contract to move.
6. I think the signings seem about right with both term and cap hit. I just don't know if I could see McElhinney wanting to return to Toronto, especially after the way he left at the beginning of last season. However, I wouldn't be opposed to that signing whatsoever if he did choose to come back.
7. I like the promotions of Bracco, Mikeyhev, Korshkov, and Rosen (even though he did play a few games for the leafs last season). I would like to see Engvall make the jump to the Leafs next season as it seems like he's ready to play in the NHL, especially after succeeding at playing centre with the Marlies towards the end of last season. He could possibly be an option to replace Gauthier on the fourth line?

All in all, one of the more creative roster moves I've seen and wouldn't be disappointed if Leaf's management made moves similar to yours!
Forum: Armchair-GM18 juin 2019 à 17 h 45
Sujet: CapCrunch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chiller</b></div><div>The bad:
1. Mitch i think is 1M too high
2. Miller trade i think is a no go, since Vegas has said they need to Shed Cap, and getting Johnsson doesnt save much.
3. You have a 20man roster with no cap space
4. Hyman and Dermott are on LTIR for 1-2 Months
5. Stralmans salary is too low

The Good:
1. I like the connor brown trade, might be a bit high with the 2nd. A 3rd.
2. I like the Ziatsev trade back to Lou</div></div>

Thanks for your input.

In regards to "the bad,"
1. With Mitch, I signed him for the most he could possibly make, in my mind, to make the maneuvering a little more challenging for me.
2. You're probably right on the Miller deal. Also, Miller's value has dropped due to a mediocre, injury ridden season and due to the fact that it is well known Vegas is in a cap crunch and NEEDS to move Miller in order to re-sign the likes of William Karlsson. In that case, I feel as though Johnsson plus would be too much to give up for an unpredictable and underwhelming Miller and the trade would have to be different (also because Gordeev is no longer apart of the Leaf's organization) for it to benefit both the Leafs and the Knights.
3. Under NHL rules, a roster size can be anywhere between 20 and 23 players who's cap hit sum is under the cap limit. Even though this roster size isn't ideal, it would qualify under the NHL's regulations.
4. I made my roster for the entirety of the NHL season, not just opening day which is why I have Dermott and Hyman occupying roster spots.
5. Stralman's cap hit may seem low, but you should take into consideration that he only had 2 goals and 15 assists last season and only played 47 games because of injury and being a healthy scratch. He will also be 33 years old by opening night and I don't believe he can demand much more than $1.5 million on the open market and he likely won't be very sought after.

I re-made my roster using your recommendations and current rumours surrounding the Leafs so feel free to check out CapCrunch20 and make some suggestions for me! Thanks!