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Sénateurs d'Ottawa
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Forum: Armchair-GM17 nov. 2021 à 14 h 30
Sujet: Brannstrom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SlevinKalevra</b></div><div>You need to add value for Ottawa taking Bailey and Chara’s cap imho</div></div>

Yeah, agree with this entirely.

Brännström for a 1st is pretty reasonable value. He was selected in the 1st a couple years ago, and his value has certainly lowered since being drafted since he's not yet competent at all aspects of the NHL game and hasn't really made the jump. Let's say the Isles pick is a late one; that's about what Sens fans should expect or hope for in a Bränn return. From there it becomes a valuable asset (Nick Paul) for two declining cap dumps (Chara and Bailey). Not exactly a fair trade.

If Paul was dropped from the deal and some compensation was added to take on the other two deals (or if more was added to acquire Paul), maybe, but they could likely get a similar package without the bad cap from another team.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 oct. 2021 à 13 h 51
Sujet: Would Ottawa trade Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>imo Marchand is one of the best players in the league....i would rank him in my top 5 easily bc of what he adds off the scoresheet. Some people add a lot of stock in difference thing and thats what makes hockey great but players like MArner and Matthews are amazing players but are unreliable in the playoffs. Josh Anderson finished the year with 3 points in his last 25 games. i like a great mix between intangibles and stats. Wilson is the type of player that when hes on the ice you are aware of it... you think twice before going into a corner. people call it "living rent free". similar to a goalie seeing kucherov or crosby on a breakaway vs lol i guess tom wilson.... its a mental advantage. What i like about Brady is he is still growing but has shown he's fearless. remember he's on a young team that is a lottery team.put that kid on a line with MAtthews and he scores 70 points... or put him with Sid... any elite center. Who is his center currently? once that team is ready he'll show you why he's worth an over payment imo</div></div>

I agree, Marchand is exceptional. The difference between Brady and Marchand is that Marchand has offensive skills that allow him to be just as good of a player as he is a pest.

I've been a Sens fan my whole life, have watched every single game Brady has played, and can go use any of the stats that describe those performances. These are not similar players, they're two vastly different tiers. Tkachuk is abysmal defensively, and has average technical skills across the board. Playmaking? Demonstrably very poor at it by the stats, and he's never been much of a passer to the eye-test. Skating? Oh he has no balance and can't stay on his feet. Goal-scoring? He needs to put up an absurd amount of shots just to be a 20 goal scorer, requiring top PP and 1st line minutes to get there, because his shot is very weak and he isn't all that effective at converting in close. These aren't things that improve with a better linemate, because these are fundamental flaws in the way he plays the game. Having a better center doesn't fix his poor shot or his poor offensive IQ, and he's already overloaded with high danger chances that he doesn't know how to convert on so getting more of those doesn't fix a whole lot.

So what is he above average at? He's hyper-competitive, and absolutely has shown he's fearless and ready to face anybody. I respect the heck out of that, but it doesn't make him a superstar player. He's dripping in those intangibles and it makes him a very valuable piece to have, but he doesn't and never has had the offensive ceiling required to make him that kind of player requiring a high contract or to have an offense built around him. He's a complimentary piece that can complete a line of talented players, like a Landeskog who isn't as good offensively and is much worse defensively. He's a 2nd line player who competes each and every night, but if he's in the top 3 of the Senators' best players, they're never scoring enough to win games.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 oct. 2021 à 13 h 41
Sujet: Formentons Play and Brady Hold Out causing the top six flip
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NDoody</b></div><div>I put that in because the way things are going it may end up north of 8 mill per.</div></div>

I 100% agree, it's trending towards a gross overpayment. I don't mean to pick on your post specifically, because you're probably right that he comes in at that amount. He just shouldn't as it's such an insane overpay that it's embarrassing as a Sens fan.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NDoody</b></div><div>While I agree that is higher than most would like, the fact is if you look at comparables and his stats along with the fact that outside of this hold out (which we know he is being pushed to do by his family and agent) he is Captain and leadership material, the guys all love him and he does motivate the team.</div></div>

His comparables place him ~$6.5M long-term, or $5.5M short-term.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NDoody</b></div><div>If you look at comparables ANDREI SVECHNIKOV has almost identical offensive numbers, and he got 7.75.</div></div>

Solely because of Svechnikov's slower first year in which he wasn't riding Mark Stone's elite play like Brady was. Since then, he's had 0.84 PPG to Brady's 0.64 PPG.

And just in case the follow-up argument is linemates (because it so frequently is), Svechnikov's top linemates in each year he's played have been: Martinook (0.30 PPG) and Wallmark (0.35 PPG) in 2018-19, Aho (0.97 PPG) and Staal (0.40 PPG) in 2019-20, and Aho (1.02 PPG) and Fast (0.41 PPG) in 2020-21. Brady's were: Stone (1.05 PPG) and White (0.58 PPG) in 2018-19, Pageau (0.67 PPG) and Brown (0.61 PPG) in 2019-20, and Norris (0.63 PPG) and Batherson (0.61 PPG) in 2020-21. Aho is definitely a stud, but the other linemate is always much worse than anything Tkachuk has had. Given Svechnikov is much better offensively and has a much higher ceiling, it's no wonder he got $7.75M. Brady, on the other hand, projects to be a 50-60 point 2LW, and that doesn't cost above $7M no matter what else he brings to the table.

Funnily enough, Tom Wilson is a great player to bring up as he is a 50-60 point player with all of the same intangibles and he makes $5.2M (signed at 24, thus buying more UFA years). Given Brady is younger and projects to be better faster, $6M is nearing a fair price.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2021 à 18 h 17
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2021 à 18 h 12
Sujet: Would Ottawa trade Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>im not saying Brady should make 8 million im simply saying that people that ignore "iNtAnGiBlEs" tend to be careless. i remember this site voting 100 + no that Wilson contract was terrible lol. Player like brady come around once in a blue moon. Wilson and Kane are very very good players that add a lot more than scoring. imo i would give him a bridge like his brother but not my pig not my farm

Reeves had more trade value than Fluery who was an MVP goalie if you wanna have terrible takes / only focus of the irrelevant parts of hockey</div></div>

Thanks for the clarification on what you meant. We agree, so I'm not sure where you think things differ. I don't think intangibles are useless and never claimed they are, just that they can lead to vastly overrating a player. Having a Tom Wilson, or a Kane, or a Landeskog, or a Tkachuk is super valuable, but absolutely not at the cap hit Tkachuk is requesting. Getting Brady on a fair amount means those intangibles can be appreciated and he can be a valuable player to his team instead of a cap anchor and impediment to success.

Like it or not, the way to win games is to score goals for and prevent goals against. I would definitely argue intangibles can contribute to that, but what contributes more is actual offensive or defensive talent. That's what gets paid for, and that's what should cost ~$6.5M in the case of Brady who has done moderately offensively and is a distinctly negative defensively.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2021 à 15 h 0
Sujet: Would Ottawa trade Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>"because of iNtAnGiBlEs" ... have you seen the Rangers off season? they overpaid for "iNtAnGiBlEs". people like you always make me laugh..'

last 3 year year the only player in the NHL to have more hits is Reeves.</div></div>

Guess Reeves should be paid $8M too then if hits matter so much. Except they don't, so let's ignore the goons and look at the last three years of the players with an ounce of talent who are amongst the top in hits to see just how much players get paid because they hit.

Tom Wilson - 0.66 PPG - 6x$5.2M
Brandon Tanev - 0.39 PPG - 6x$3.5M
Blake Coleman - 0.50 PPG - 6x$4.9M
Adam Lowry - 0.32 PPG - 5x$3.25M
Nick Foligno - 0.46 PPG - 2x$3.8M
Alex Ovechkin - 1.02 PPG - 5x$9.5M
Josh Anderson - 0.47 PPG - 7x$5.5M
Jordan Staal - 0.54 PPG - 10x$6M
Evander Kane - 0.78 PPG - 7x$7M

Looks like Brady shouldn't make more than $7M, since Evander Kane is a great comparable who is better offensively, better defensively, bought more UFA years, and also throws the body.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2021 à 14 h 47
Sujet: Would Ottawa trade Tkachuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gavinray</b></div><div>He's also our leading point scorer and is only 21 lol. Just cuz our team sucks rn doesnt make him a 2nd liner.</div></div>

22**

The reason he lead the team in scoring is <em>because</em> the team sucks. He gets PP1, top 5v5 minutes, and is played in absolutely every situation and scored like a 2nd liner. No matter how bad the team, somebody is going to put up points because of opportunity. Norris in his rookie season scored as much (significantly better P/60 too) and Stützle scored a similar P/60 while being 3 years younger and getting much lower quality linemates.

He's a 2nd liner now (ranks 115th in P/GP in the league since joining amongst forwards with 30+ GP) who is being forced into a 1st line role, and he's bound to be a 2nd liner for his career when Stützle is the superior player playing above him.

Brady Tkachuk, the player, is very different than Brady Tkachuk, the idea.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 août 2021 à 16 h 55
Sujet: 2 Birds 1 Strome
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Aussie_Blackhawk</b></div><div>Would increasing the Draft capital make this work in your opinion or is it just a non deal due to Ottawa's reluctance to part with Brannstrom?

or

Would adding additional pieces be more in favour?</div></div>

It seems likely that Brännström eventually gets moved (with Chabot and Sanderson taking the top two LHD spots, and coaching's avoidance of putting Bränn on the right, he won't be more than a 3rd pairing guy; and further, this year they have 600 D that they added that will force Brännström out of the lineup since DJ Smith prefers slow, lumbering D on the backend and not undersized offensive guys that can't skate well enough to make up for it), so I don't think it's a case of Ottawa reluctance. It's just not a good enough trade for Ottawa. There needs to be far more incentive to take on Connolly, and also more value coming back than just Strome. Even if Brännström doesn't have a place in Ottawa's D corps, there's a place for him somewhere as he's valuable.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 août 2021 à 14 h 34
Sujet: Dvorak
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>I'm not sure Brannstrom is untouchable though. He's on the outside looking in looking at the roster to start the season, and his standing is even less clear once Sanderson arrives. If the Sens think Mete is a better fit as a 3LD option it probably makes sense to move him to bring in a top 6 C.</div></div>

But where's the top 6 C?

I like Dvorak, but he's an okay 2nd liner at best who just had a strong season getting all of Arizona's top opportunities. He's not that spectacular offensively and he's not very good defensively. Logan can't stay healthy, but he projects to be a 3C at the very least if he does, so you're basically Zibanejad for Brassard'ing it for fun. Besides, we already have Dvorak at home, and his name is Colin White.

White @ 20 - 6 in 21 (0.29 PPG), 1.36 P/60 at EV
White @ 21 - 41 in 71 (0.58 PPG), 2.01 P/60 at EV
White @ 22 - 23 in 61 (0.38 PPG), 1.39 P/60 at EV
White @ 23 - 18 in 45 (0.40 PPG), 1.43 P/60 at EV

Dvorak @ 20 - 33 in 78 (0.42 PPG), 1.62 P/60 at EV
Dvorak @ 21 - 37 in 78 (0.47 PPG), 1.74 P/60 at EV
Dvorak @ 22 - 7 in 20 (0.35 PPG), 1.39 P/60 at EV
Dvorak @ 23 - 38 in 70 (0.54 PPG), 1.76 P/60 at EV
Dvorak @ 24 - 31 in 56 (0.55 PPG), 1.50 P/60 at EV

Would you trade Brännström, Brown and a 2nd for White?
Forum: Armchair-GM11 avr. 2021 à 20 h 28
Sujet: Nations Capital One Stop Shop
I think the only part of it that Ottawa balks at is the James Neal portion. They love Connor Brown (for a good reason), and Neal just isn't good any more. With Dadonov falling off a cliff for them, it's hard to justify taking on another winger who is on the wrong side of 32 and crumbling away. Positionally, Neal doesn't crack their top 4 left wingers. He's below Tkachuk, Stützle, and Paul, and they will want to play Formenton. He also doesn't crack their top 4 right wingers. He's below Batherson, will play below newly acquired JP, will get fewer chances than Dadonov, and will not get in over Watson who is a lock on their 4th line. That's not enough to take on a guy who doesn't crack their lineup.

Otherwise, yeah. Sens would say yes to the Tierney "part", and would likely be good with the Dzingel/Gudbranson return. Just don't see them being willing to part with Connor Brown unless it's an overpay, and certainly not with Neal coming back.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 avr. 2021 à 23 h 10
Sujet: Murphy Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Beetlejuice</b></div><div>I'd orginally had Foerster, but I'd thought the Flyer's value him more than York, so would it be more fair if I'd drop York and add foerster and maybe change the 1st to a 2nd</div></div>

I'd imagine both would be off limits if its in addition to a 1st. A second is probably more reasonable, but it's tough.

I mean, a good example is Nashville's reported ask for Ekholm from Winnipeg: they would want Heinola, a 1st, and an additional piece which is likely someone like Perreault to match salary. I like Murphy and recognize he's a very underrated D in the league, but Ekholm beats him across the board. I'd say York is in a similar class as Heinola, although I'm sure some prefer one over the other with enough of a gap to differentiate between them. The question is where Foerster fits in comparison; I'd argue he's a tier below the two D, but his performance in the AHL as a 19 year old is fantastic so maybe that's selling him short.

I think if a 1st is going to go back, asking for a prospect like Foerster or York or Amirov is just too much. They're young and thriving. Comparatively, Holmström is in his second year in the AHL and looks like a questionable pick (if he wasn't already from the start) and Bokk is only now fulfilling some of his promise at 21. It would have to be a 2nd or even a 3rd and I would still totally understand if a Philly fan came in here and said "nah York/Foerster is untouchable".
Forum: Armchair-GM29 mars 2021 à 23 h 58
Sujet: Strike while the iron is hot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>Lassi was the captain of the Finnish world junior team right after his draft. Would have captained the team again this year but was a little too old. He's looked great in Belleville this year. I wouldn't say he's underwhelmed. On the other hand Peterka has done everything that's expected of him and more. I could see Ottawa doing this, especially if they take another RD in CLarke this year, but I agree that Buffalo doesn't really have any incentive to make the swap.</div></div>

Lassi has looked awful in Belleville this year, don't prospect hug and pretend everything is alright. He's been so poor that coach Mann explicitly and directly dragged him in the media and said how little he could handle the responsibility of being their powerplay quaterback, that he was nowhere close to a Wolanin or Brännström OFD with the puck, that he's being put into situations he's not ready for (PP and top 4), that he panics with the puck, and that he needs more time to adjust to the North American ice. He started with all the opportunity in the world and was gifted a spot on PP1 by virtue of how much the Sens wasted a pick on him but he's quickly been demoted and is now on the 3rd pairing and getting fewer and fewer minutes because he continues to be absolutely atrocious defensively and not contributing enough offensively to make it worth it. The fun part? This is the exact same thing that happened two years in a row in Liiga where he completely lost his coach's trust. He hasn't improved since being drafted too high. Woo!

And captaining the WJC team? He lead them to no medal, the team went 2-2 in the preliminary round and he had a miserable 3 P in 7 GP, good for a tie for 7th on the team and 3rd amongst D (behind two guys who were drafted after him and have been way more impressive than him since the draft in Liiga and the AHL). Just because he had a C put on his jersey doesn't mean anything. He was a complete disappointment at that tournament.

Buffalo loses that trade.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 mars 2021 à 15 h 41
Sujet: What Ottawa Got For Mark Stone
Could not have been a bigger flub from Dorion.

In losing Stone, it's already a huge loss. But to get back only Brännström and a 2nd, it's an utterly embarrassing return. Especially since most Sens fans are afraid to admit that Brännström just simply isn't that good - his defensive game is atrocious, his size is a huge detriment to his game, he's a nightmare at 5v5, and he'll never make it anywhere in the Sens' system because their assistant coach posing as a head coach will never play him in his proper position (RD) and he'll soon forever be behind Chabot and Sanderson. Feels great that Mark Stone netted a 3rd pairing PP specialist who gets knocked out with injury from a simple hit.

People act like the Duchene trade was what killed the Sens organization, but this is the one that did it.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 mars 2021 à 23 h 34
Sujet: How close
I'll offer a different perspective as a Sens fan: I think Brännström is a 3rd pairing, powerplay specialist at best. His defensive IQ is and likely never will be of top 4 quality and he's the kind of small player who really, truly is set back by being small. He is constantly muscled off the puck and loses countless battles due to his lack of strength, and while his skating is smooth, it doesn't make up for the areas in which he is poor. He is an <em>excellent</em> powerplay quaterback, potentially even better than Chabot, and really excels when he is mobile on the opponent's blueline. His passing and his shot are both above average and project to be solid tools at the NHL level. If he is anywhere else on the ice though, he's been a detriment to the Sens on a team filled with bad defenders. Fans just put on their blinders to hide from it because he was the return for Stone and because they want to see a future in him. While in Belleville, he put up a lot of points, but this was in part due to an incredibly strong powerplay unit and forward core that chugged along regardless of who was distributing the puck from the backend. All this being said, Erik Brännström has a ton of potential and is also very likely to make me eat all of my words. He's got a tremendous ceiling, I just adamantly believe he's going to come nowhere close to it.

However, I am just an idiot who watches from home. Pierre Dorion is the one who traded the soul of this franchise for him and boldly declared the day to be his greatest as a GM. The fans that herald Brännström as the future saviour of this blueline are going to be much like Dorion, and he's the one who Adams would have to convince with this trade. For that reason, it'll probably take a far-too-large plus from Buffalo's end.