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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM29 janv. 2019 à 23 h 30
Sujet: Doesnt Look Too Bad
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Okay, so he gets 11.whatever for 8 right? (that is Eichel + inflation + however much better you think Matthews is).
RFA's take off huge parts of their salary due to CBA **** to go shorter.
Take off a year take off a million or so.
Therefore,
I figure he wont go much below 9 so no use going to 5.
6@9.34
7@10.34
8@11.34
Also, the kane and towes argument only factors in points, and not other major factors. Everything included that number is very close, so Kane/Toews is 5@9.2, then Matthews (with some of his issues) would come to 5-6@9.34.
That is a fairly easy comparable.

Now tell me, when you could get Matthews at 8 years for just a touch over your prediction, why go to 6?

I cannot for the life of me understand why people on her think the Leafs will have to so badly overpay for their players. Yeah they are very good. They are even elite.
That doesn't mean you have to overpay for no discernible reason.</div></div>

You aren't using comparable contracts to backup your estimations. You are pulling these numbers from thin air. That's not how negotiations work.

Why are you comparing Matthews to Eichel?

Eichel signed his 8 year deal when his PPG was at 0.79. Matthews PPG is currently at 0.98. That's a <strong>very</strong> significant difference.

Eichel also signed when the cap was much lower. The cap is going up to 83m. Eichel signed for 13.33% of the cap. That's 11,063,900 on an 83m cap. You're pretty much saying Eichel and Matthews are equivalent at the time of each signing if you want to give Matthews around 11 @ 8. As you see above (0.79PPG for Eichel, 0.98PPG for Matthews), this is clearly untrue.

I really don't understand your argument against the Kane and Toews comparable. Agents use points per game to drive a negotiation when singing an RFA. And anyways, what have Toews and Kane done better than Matthews?

I just explained why 10 million @ 5 years or 10.5 million @ 6 years is fair with numbers to back up my reasoning, yet you still say it's an overpayment.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 janv. 2019 à 22 h 42
Sujet: dealing from position of weakness because of cap hell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Well, bring up prospects to save money rather than re sign guys.

The Marlies play in Toronto, if needed, the Leafs can get away with 22 players on the roster (less when at home to bank cap space)

Give Matthews a 6 year deal, which will be considerably cheaper (like 9.34aav kind of cheaper)
Give Marner 8@8.5-9 (after the Matthews signing that makes it much easier). I will just average this number to save time.

Here is my roster:
Johnsson(3@2.5)-Tavares (11)-Marner (8@8.75)
Hyman(2.25)-Matthews (6@9.34)-Nylander (6.9)
Marleau(6.25)-Kadri (4.5)-Kapanen(2@2.75)
Moore(0.775)-Goat(0.675)-Brown(2.1)
Engvall(0.925) could also be Marchmont or a cheap league min option.

Rielly(5)-Muzzin(4)
Dermott(0.863)-Zaitzev (4.5)
Rosen(0.750)-Liljegren (0.863)
Holl(0.675)

Andersen(5)
Sparks(2@0.800)

Total just works.
If you think someone gets a bit more (I'd like to see exactly why you think that as these numbers are very comparable) then you can move brown at the draft. Some insiders think a 5 or 6 year Matthews deal is coming within the month to get certainty but I'll believe it when I see it.

Tl;dr Marlies graduates are your friend.
Note: Liljegren's AAV is after his contract slides this year.</div></div>

Where are you getting those numbers for Matthews and Marner?

Matthews' AAV is too low.

That AAV for Marner looks right on a 5 year deal. Kane and Marner are almost identical in terms of production and Kane got 9.2 million equivalent today.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 janv. 2019 à 22 h 31
Sujet: Doesnt Look Too Bad
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>The contracts I think are close but:

You overpaid Matthews with that term. That is likely what he gets (maximum) with 8 years. If you go to 6, it drastically kills the aav due to how RFA works, so Matthews for 5 or 6 would be closer to 9.34aav. It will be less than Eichel for sure (with 6 years)
I think you nailed the Marner contract.
You overpaid Kappy and Mango by about 500k each, and went a touch too long on the term. think:
Mango: 3@2.5
Kappy: 2@2.75
Sparks will make backup money, which is like the Mac Contract (2@0.850)
Doubt Lindholm comes back. There is a lack of good depth centres league wide and someone will offer him 1.5aav on 3 years to play for them.</div></div>

You're wrong on the Matthews' number.

No way gets 9.34 unless he takes a pretty heavy cut, especially at 6 years.

Kane and Toews got 11.09% @ 5 years or $9,204,700 on a 83 million dollar cap.

Stamkos got 11.66% @ 5 years or $9,677,800 on a 83 million dollar cap.

The following is the points per game at signing for each player:

Toews - 0.87
Kane - 0.92
Stamkos - 0.95
Matthews - 0.98

Matthews' production is significantly higher than both Toews and Kane. He will get much more.

The greatest comparable is Stamkos. Matthews has better production than Stamkos had, so it's likely he'll get more.

I'm guessing 10 million @ 5 years or 10.5 million @ 6 years.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. 2018 à 0 h 13
Sujet: Leafs 2019-2020 Pipe Dream 84m cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No, I'm not being a smartass but this is a dumbass trade during the season or off season. And it would have to happen during this season due to Gardiner's upcoming UFA. So you're saying this:
The Leafs...who are Cup contenders, tell an important member of their team. "Jake, we don't really want you, so we want to trade you but it only happens if you can make a extension with Carolina. So you go and try to negotiate an extension , in the meantime keep on playing with us. And if you can't to an extension agreement with them, no sweat, you're welcome back with our club." Yes, these mid season, extensions with another team are so unrealistic.
And Carolina certainly wouldn't make this deal post 2018/19 season because Gardiner is a UFA...they can get him for free. And how can you compare it to the Patches trades, which was done in the off season, and the extension was done with one year left on his contract, not when he was a UFA.</div></div>
I'm 100% sure Gardiner knows he could potentially be traded this season. He's likely gone after the season is done and IMO the Leafs cannot afford to lose him for nothing.

He's a professional athlete. Players with NMC/NTC clauses are asked to waive, reject the request, and go right back to playing pretty often. So I don't think your logic there is very good.

Like I said in the title, this is a pipe dream. It's more than likely Gardiner would wait to be a UFA. But, throwing around a proposal is ALWAYS a hypothetical. So, hypothetically, if Gardiner were to sign an extension, would both sides be okay with the deal?
Forum: Armchair-GM17 oct. 2018 à 2 h 8
Sujet: Leafs 2019-2010 with Nylander and revamped defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Yes it still is, Zaitzev has actually played really well so far this year. He has been solid D wise, and making smart plays to move the puck up the ice. His contract is not great, as he got both term and cap hit, when it should have only been one. I mean, how much better would it have been 7@3 if you keep the term or 4@4.5 if you keep the hit? He is a bad contract, but a good player, so we do not need to trade him, nor should we as he is only 500k more expensive, and he already knows the system, and we know he can work in TOR, while we would be taking risk with Myers (Patches in VGK so far for example).

Brown is pretty good, since we are only getting one year of Tanev, id do Brown for Tanev 1-for-1.

In terms of replacing Gardiner, I think by next year, Rielly - Dermott will be able to do that, but more effectively as Dermott looks better defensively (I think Dermott will develop very nicely this year).

When I say Oz is going to get more, I am thinking 2@1.5aav, nothing huge.

You know, I will leave you with this:
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/891675">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/891675</a>
It is my take on the Leafs D core. It touches on where we are now, and goes in depth what to do next year, and into the future, so it explains why I think our D is stronger than you think it is.

One last thing, some stats. The Leafs were the 12th best D last year, in an uncharacteristically bad defensive year for Gardiner, and injured and sick Zaitzev who could not recover, Dermott being brand new to the team, and Polak existing (addition by subtraction for the win).
This D core is underrated, and the future is even brighter. We just need patience, dont make a trade. We have the next 10 years to win a cup, don't blow it all now and potentially miss our shot.</div></div>

I don't know if I can take the defense you linked seriously.

Oz is currently a fringe 5-6 defensemen. You're projecting he will be top 4 by next year on his off-hand?

You're joking, right?
Forum: Armchair-GM17 oct. 2018 à 1 h 27
Sujet: Leafs 2019-2010 with Nylander and revamped defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Overpayment for Tanev. If the Leafs get him at the deadline, its a Bracco level prospect (not necessarily Bracco) and a 2nd. Add in another 2nd and they will retain, although I still would not do this trade. An older, slow DFD (a dying style) with TWO years on his contract (the two years is why I say no) at too high a cap hit to afford, that likely won't play more than 2 thirds of games as he is always injured. I cannot understand why Canucks fans and guys on this board badly overvalue him for some reason, he is solid, but on this site, overrated.

Yes, sign Myers, because the Leafs need another Dman who gives the puck away nearly as much as Jake Gardiner...
I am certain that Oz will get more than that aav if he continues to play well.</div></div>

Not sure it is THAT much of an over payment considering the Canucks will take on that lengthy contract. I was thinking this trade would happen in the summer of 2019, so it will cost more than you projected.

Myers is a cheaper version of Gardiner due to lack of production. Gardiner will likely get around 6 million. Leafs cannot afford him.

Oz is a 5-6 RFA defensemen. I don't think he gets much more until he plays for 2+ years.

To me, this defense isn't all that great. But it puts the Leafs in a position to win while keeping all of their young guys.