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LikeABoss

Kens replacement
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5 juill. 2017
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Red Wings de Detroit
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Blue Jackets de Columbus
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Forum: Armchair-GM18 nov. à 8 h 20
Sujet: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Legitimately one of the dumbest rebuttals I've ever heard.</div></div>

This must be another etymological issue, where I'm assuming you mean "devastating" when you say "dumbest". Kind of like your definition of "fringe player" means "4th line player" right?

You make an excellent point, it's pretty devastating when a hypothetical 8 year deal for Abs would have been cheaper than the 14 years of $30M contracts and buyout he did get. Thanks for your kind feedback! :squinty

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>You're not watching if you think he's playing like a $6M player...</div></div>

We agree here too, he's playing more like a $6.9M x 6yr player, aka 3rd year Willy Nylander, and will likely be paid as such. :cool
Forum: Armchair-GM17 nov. à 12 h 15
Sujet: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>lol where do you see an 8 year deal....</div></div>
:|
6yr + 5yr = 11 yr, 5yr +3yr = 8yr, 6yr + 1yr = 7yr... What I'm showing is some of his comparables have been paid for over multiple contracts in the 3.4% ($3M) range amounting to a period of ~8 years. I also think Jeannot and Sharangovich are good comparable case studies for your approach with short term deals.

The player contracts I'm pointing to have similar playing styles with similar production. The only comparables you've provided are Jonathan Ericsson, Dan Cleary and Drew Miller... Do you know one of those is a defenseman, and none of them were given a long term deal early in their career...? In fact they were all given overpriced contracts when they were UFA, which supports the case for a long term deal... :grimace

The difference between 2 contracts x 4yr versus 1 contract x 8yr is due to the high probability of the salary cap increasing in the future. Thus 3.7% of the future cap will be more than $3.25M which results in 2 contracts x 4yr consuming a higher percentage of the cap over that same period than 1 contract x 8yr.

Extrapolating a little further, if you assume the player doesn't regress, short term deals favor the player (which might be what your routing for if you want him to get paid :cool ) while long term deals favor the team. However if the player regresses (which seems to be what you're actually routing for :s ) then it flips and a short term deals favor the team and long term deals favor the player.

Make sense?

I'd like to take your awful comparables and raise you one Justin Abdelkader. He signed a 3.0% x 4yr contract when he was 25, sound familiar? Later (with the cap having gone up from $60M to $73M) he signed a 5.95% x 7yr extension... Can you at the very least concede the fact that signing Abs @ 6.0% ($3.6M) x 8yr would have been objectively better than 3.0% ($1.8M) x 4yr + 5.95% ($4.25M) x 4yr + buyout @ 6.3M x 6yr...? I'm not saying he was ever worth 6%, but still don't think there's an argument against that hypothetical long term contract with hindsight... Damn... Just think of their trajectory if they had signed Abs to an 8yr deal, and Stevie could have bought him out day 1 of becoming GM @ &lt;$2.8M x 2yr...:tearsofjoy

You still haven't suggested a replacement for Ras when you lose him on waivers... Basically your only argument is your opinion of his play from this season, so everything considered, your short sighted opinion hasn't changed anyone's assessment on the value of Ras. I haven't even brought up Razor, but I think it's safe to assume your opinion of him is more of the same verbal diarrhea...

Just pack it in buddy.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 nov. à 19 h 49
Sujet: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Pretty simple for me really. I see a really mediocre player that doesn't have a positive impact on the teams success on a nightly basis.

A fringe NHL player means someone who is a 4th liner / not quite regular NHL level talent. You could put Ras in a GR game tomorrow and you wouldn't know who the clear NHLer is. He's incredibly average. He probably would clear waivers at this point, but I'm not advocating for sending him down. It's not like he needs to develop his game, this is who he is.

I think he should be paid based on his entire career thus far in the NHL, which shows that he is nothing but a 4th line player. As such, signing him to anything more than that type of contract is nonsense, unless you want the Wings to be in the bottom of the standings every year. Watching Ras for another 8 years would be like having to watch Jonathan Ericsson or Daniel Cleary or Drew Miller for another 8 years. At this point I couldn't care less if they re-sign this coming offseason. He adds next to nothing on the roster.

We've suffered far too long through Holland's BS to deal with that again.</div></div>

I doubt he would make it passed San Jose on waivers. Who's busting down the door to take his spot btw? Whoever that player is, by your description they would automatically also be fringe right? What are the guys that get scratched? I suppose that just means every team ices a "fringe" line, aka the 4th line, so what's the harm in locking up a fringe liner for 8 years?

He's only 24 and even if he amounts to a 4th liner for the rest of his career, $3.25M is not unmanageable. Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly all for him being a 4th liner because that would mean the team is in a pretty good spot with 9+ forwards who are playing better than Ras regularly. I just don't see who the 9 are with this roster, and into the future. There aren't a ton of replacement/upgrades in UFA market this offseason either. Who should they add/promote?
Forum: Armchair-GM15 nov. à 18 h 7
Sujet: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>We're watching different players. Ras looked like he took a big step last year and actually looked like he could be a contributor for years to come, but this year he has reverted back to being the same fringe NHL-caliber player. I hated the pick when Holland made it and I still hate it today.

He can't skate, he doesn't win FOs, he creates nothing 5v5 but icings, he barely uses his body unless he's on the PP and he doesn't play physical.

Signing him for 8 years is borderline insane.</div></div>

We might be watching different sports. When you say fringe NHLer I don't know what you mean by it. When I think of fringe NHLers it's the players that can get through waivers unclaimed. Do you think Ras should go on waivers? Or do you have a different description of a fringe NHLer?

Here's my counter points to your list: He took a puck to the knee blocking a shot last season, FOWs is a weak argument, he's again on pace for 25+ points this season, he certainly uses his size to block shots, and if by physical you mean he should hit more I'm not sure how much more u require because he's had multiple seasons with 100+ hit pace.

I think we're talking passed each other on the points production part, because if he produced more we would be talking about a larger contract, but instead this is market value because that's what his production is worth around the league... *See previously referenced comparable contracts

It seems like you think he should be paid based on his last 15 games, and based on those 15 games you'd be fine losing him on waivers... Whereas I think he should be paid based on his reliability shown at a professional level from the age of 18 to 24.

8 years @ 3.7% of the cap would make him 33 YO by the end of this extension, and probably @ ~3% of the cap. A bridge deal walks him to UFA, anything from bridge up to max would just buy down the risk of regression or injury.

I think the regression thing is a pretty safe bet, because I remember they liked his drive and passion when they drafted him, so I just don't see him regressing much through the rest of his 20s. The injury thing is a crapshoot, but taking a bet that a player will stays healthy is a pretty low threshold for insanity.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 oct. à 21 h 8
Sujet: Would this get a Pinto deal done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AnonymousSensFan</b></div><div>Not really. Forsberg has fit in and looked good with a larger sample size. He and Korpisalo would provide a good tandem, which Sens have lacked for years.

Sens need stable goaltending more than a 3C, which they can sign by moving other, less critical pieces. Lyon can maybe pick up where he left off, or he may not. Sens can't count on that. They know and like Forsberg, and his contract is reasonable.

I also don't think Yzerman is the type of person to trade a FA he just signed before the season even starts. Not a great move for a team to make.</div></div>

Understandable. I was just trying something off the beaten path with this trade.

I'm not saying Forsberg is bad, but I think it would be fair to put him in the same ballpark as Reimer and Lyon. From the Wings perspective this would maybe be a slight upgrade, for an extra 4th and a pretty substantial cap hit for 2 seasons...
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août à 14 h 42
Sujet: Season Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>IIRC Larkin only got an opportunity to make the Red Wings that season because Datsyuk was Injured? Larkin took advantage of his opportunity. It certainly didn't hurt playing with Hank Zetterberg.

Red Wings seem to be employing a "death by 1000 paper cuts" mentality. They lack stars so they'll try to beat opponents with depth.

Copp and Compher are there so there's no need to force young Kasper into a role he's not ready for. I'm very high on both Kasper and Mazur and feel their compete levels may get them to the NHL sooner than later.

Most of these vet players are placeholders. Yzerman wants to compete now while slowly replacing these vets 1 by 1 with his young studs. I can clearly see Yzerman is thinking 3-4 years from now for everything to come together. Might happen in 2-3 years even.</div></div>

It worked for Seattle, which is why I could see a Detroit getting in. The caveat being that Seattle has a better blueline.

I see them being 1 top 4 d-man and 1 top 6 forward away from being a solid playoff contender. With Edvinsson, Mazur and Kasper at the doorstep, I expect the Wings to be in the playoff race next season, and to begin climbing to Stanley cup favorites in 2-5 years as their other prospects like Danielson, Cossa, Wallinder, Sandin Pellikka start to graduate.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août à 14 h 12
Sujet: Season Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>I don't see anything wrong with Kasper playing the season in Grand Rapids. Yzerman wants his players to earn their spots.

Difference between Yzerman and Holland is simple. Holland believes tie goes to the vet. Yzerman believes tie goes to the young guy.

It's not like these young guys are being blocked by All Star players. If they're as good as they believe they are then they should beat them out for roster spots.</div></div>

Larkin played on Zetterberg's wing when he started playing in the NHL, which I think is an easier transition than trying to slot him in 2C. I also think out of all the guys I have slotted in LW, it's very possible he could be the best of them all coming out of the preseason. I agree with what you're saying about Yzerman though, he's as patient as they come, and I think keeping Kasper in the AHL would allow them to slide his contract another year.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août à 13 h 50
Sujet: Season Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>Kasper on the top line? 🤔

Can't put Raymond and Berggren on the same line. They'll be manhandled.

Perron won't be on line 3. He'll likely ride shotgun to Larkin with Cat on line 1.

Sprong over Fischer. Petry over Holl. Rasmussen 2LW.</div></div>

If Kasper isn't in the top 6 he should be in the AHL.

You can move Kasper down and Raymond up, doesn't change either line's rank.

I can see Perron on the 2nd line, but not the 1st. This 3rd line is pretty interchangeable with the 2nd line but again wouldn't change my rankings.

Sprong and Fischer will be deployed based on who they're playing, I don't think either of them plays the full 82, but I could see Sprong AND Fabbri getting more games than Kostin and Fischer. If you swap them out it probably improves my 4th line ranking and lower scratched players ranking.

I wouldn't pair Ghost and Petry, but if they did, it would probably lower my rankings for 2nd and 3rd pair.

Again 3rd and 2nd line are pretty interchangeable, but I think Ras and Copp play well together so 2nd line of: Ras - Copp - Raymond and 3rd line of: Burger - Compher - Perron would again not change my rankings.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 juill. à 15 h 25
Sujet: Detroit Lyons
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>The fact Sprong had little options after a career year says it all. Detroit seems to be a no go zone for UFAs unless overpaid.</div></div>
There's definitely a bad team tax UFAs are charging Detroit.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>‘I am going to fill their nets with pucks’

Teams can’t even fill a waiver claim on him!

Wingers have no value unless they can actually score and make little money</div></div>
There's still a pretty good chance he gets bought out, it's a good looking buyout too, he'd have a negative cap hit next season. I just edited this to show the buyout.

From his recent press conference, it seems like Yzerman would prefer to keep Zadina, but it also seemed like he wants to do everything he can to fulfill Zadina's request to be moved. Selfishly I want Detroit to keep him, but I'd still route for him to fill nets with pucks if he's bought out and another team signs him. He's a good player, he can transport the puck well, is responsible in both ends, can find open space, but it's ironic that he misses the net so often.

I don't want to blame Blashill and Lalonde, but Zadina rarely plays with good line mates. Granted there haven't been very many of those to go around in the past 5 years here. I just think about Cole Caufield, and the night and day production he had between Dominique Ducharme and Marty St. Louis. I can't help but wonder if Zadina would break out with a coach that tries to improve his strengths, rather than forcing him to be a well rounded player.