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Hogie5

Hogie
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Sénateurs d'Ottawa
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Forum: Armchair-GM14 mai 2022 à 11 h 45
Sujet: Actual Realistic Sens 22-23 Roster
To comment on your actual proposals and not just make bad jokes.

-Sens will need to dump money somewhere if they give out those internal raises, and acquire Keller who makes 7.5 million dollars next season. Maybe Arizona takes Colin White, who would get top 6 minutes on their team. Zaitsev is another option.

-Value wise, the Keller trade looks close enough to what I'd expect. It's too many pieces, but it's not all that unrealistic. I also don't think there is any need for a conditional pick, Sens know what they are getting with Keller. 7th+2nd round pick or 2nd round tier prospect+Zaitsev makes sense to me. Arizona might actually value Zaitsev since he has shown he can eat up top minutes on a rebuilding team that gets hammered night in and night out, and they have to reach the floor anyways. Whether Zaitsev is bad at it is irrelevant for them. It might even be a plus.

-While I might not 100 percent agree on each exact extension number, we're talking about minimal differences that don't matter much. Like maybe I think you're a few 100k off on one player or another. The only one that stands out as unrealistic is the Jarnkrok signing. While he has been bad in Calgary, he has a long resume as a top 9 forward. He is getting 3-5 years at 3M+ from someone as a UFA. The Senators cannot realistically afford that kind of luxury on their third line, and if they could, they'd re-sign Brown. Jarnkrok is also unlikely to sign in Ottawa for anything short of an overpayment, not that he is a huge star, but the Senators are one of the least desirable destinations in the league.

-The White buyout would be the smart move, but I am skeptical about whether Dorion will do it. He has to answer to a new upper management group, and he has so many bad contracts on the books already. He can only say he screwed up so many times, and putting nearly a million on the books for six seasons might be a tough sell, even if it frees up a lot of money in the short term. If a buyout was an easy option, I don't think he would have been so deep in trade talks with Montreal at the deadline. I say that assuming Montreal was going to send the Senators back another long contract to offset White like Armia or Hoffman. We made a hockey trade because this guy totally wasn't a bad contract, just not a fit here, is a much easier sell than "So remember how I told you about those bad contracts to Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto that we need to move, well don't leave yet....WE GOT ONE MORE TO DEAL WITH".

-The Norris contract is about what I'd expect if the Senators go long term. Somewhere around the 8x8 mark, or a slightly lower AAV on 6 or 7 years. With that said, I don't think the Senators go long term on Norris, because they don't have the flexibility to take that risk, and they think they are buying high on unsustainable goal scoring. I think they only go long term if Norris gives them a great deal. Given that Norris did not want to sign earlier this season, and wanted to risk playing out the season to maximize his value, he isn't giving the Senators a discount. Senators wont' go to 7.5-8.0 million, and Norris isn't giving them a discount. I'd expect either a 3 or a 5 year deal in the 6 million or less range. A 3 year deal will put Norris in a position to cash in because escrow will be paid back and the cap will go up again. While it will buy the Senators time to work around the sale of the team, and hopefully bring in owners who can spend to the cap to retain Norris on his third contract. I think they offer Stutzle the Jack Hughes contract this summer, because anybody with a working pair of eyes can see he is going to explode this season. I don't think they can make Stutzle and Norris both at 8 or so million work in the short term, which is why Norris will be bridged.