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HeadHighSauce

Dougie HIMilton
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Devils du New Jersey
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Forum: Armchair-GM12 juill. 2023 à 16 h 28
Sujet: What does Dawson Mercers next contract look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeadHighSauce</b></div><div>I think 6.5M is his (current) ceiling.

Comps by ppg in 2 years pre-contract extension w/ caphit normalized to 2023 and their "rank" among the cores of their own teams at the time (subjective I know):

player: L2 ppg || 2023 contract equivalent || subjective rank on "core" depth chart in year contract was signed || draft slot

Brock Boeser: 0.88 || 6.02M x 3 || 3-5 || 23
Matthew Boldy: 0.8 || 7.08M x 7 || 2-3 || 12
Cole Caufield: 0.7 || 7.8M x 8 || 1-3 || 15
Clayton Keller: 0.68 || 7.32M x 7 || 1-2 || 7
Dylan Cozens: 0.66 || 7.1M x 7 || 4-6 || 7
Dawson Mercer: 0.6 || ?? x ?? || 6-8 || 18
Travis Konecny: 0.58 || 5.63M x 6 || 5-7 || 24
Drake Batherson: 0.56 || 5.09M x 5 || 3-4 || 121

I personally think he's going to come in much closer to Travis Konecny or Batherson compared to Cozens or Boldy. He doesn't have the place on the depth chart or the production to get much more than 6.0-6.5, imo. I also don't think he profiles like a dude getting max term. I expect 6 years around 6.15M

The more I think about it, TK is hands down the best comparable.</div></div>

I'd be happy with $6.15m x 6 years

Keep in mind Hughes got $8m x 8 based on what they thought he will do, not what he had done. So there is some precedent for him paying about what production may predict.

Also, worth noting Mercer is still on younger side for a long-term deal. Not a huge difference...but a year younger than Konecny, Boeser, Batherson...who got the shorter deals.

Clayton Keller: 21 years, 37 days
<strong>Dawson Mercer:</strong> 21 years, 228 days (if signed today)
Matthew Boldy: 21 years, 286 days
Dylan Cozens: 21 years, 363 days
Cole Caufield: 22 years, 154 days
Travis Konecny: 22 years, 189 days
Brock Boeser: 22 years, 203 days
Drake Batherson: 23 years, 130 days
Forum: Armchair-GM26 juin 2023 à 11 h 37
Forum: Armchair-GM25 juin 2023 à 17 h 34
Sujet: Iafallo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeadHighSauce</b></div><div>1,) Using 5 years for a 34 year old is a poor exercise because it’s extremely likely his play 5 years ago is not indicative of his play next year.

Connor Clifton is one. Ian Cole another. Calvin De Haan a third.

2.) Simon Nemec is a better option for 3RD than Robert Bortuzzo.</div></div>

1 - First of all, Bortuzzo was just as good last year as he always is. Secondly, I picked five kinda at random to get a depth of work going, but you can say three or whatever.

Now... Clifton has absolutely not been as consistently good as Bortuzzo in this time. He's had a season or two that was better, but in his best season (last season) he actually played up a good bit. You probably should put him in the better options for question #2.

Cole and De Haan each made 3-4-5 times as much as Bortuzzo. In any event, Cole I will give you. De Haan? Ehhhh... debatable I suppose, but I don't think De Haan spent even half that five year period on the 3rd pairing. Actually, I'm not even sure he spent a full season's worth of time on the 3rd pairing.

But yeah, Cole counts... if you have the extra cap to spend on a 3LD.

2 - Heh. I see what you did there. Well played.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juin 2023 à 15 h 50
Sujet: Devils 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>This sounds to me like a Player Development saying, “we are selling him” in more words…
<em>
“Reilly’s kind of a unique guy, I do believe he could play on an NHL team’s power play, certainly a second power play for a lot of NHL teams. (Walsh) realizes, because of our build through the draft and our talented defenseman, that’s going to make that competitive and challenging for him.

“That’s the best part of earning your rights to waivers. You’re still trying to earn your spot with us, but you’re also getting an opportunity selling yourself to other organizations. We had no problem telling him that, as well. That’s part of his rights as a young professional. If the opportunity isn’t here, maybe it’s somewhere else. Whether that’s through a trade early on in the season, or maybe it’s through waivers if he’s not able to stick full-time with us.”

MacKinnon noted that New Jersey’s front office, led by GM Tom Fitzgerald, “prides themselves” on speaking candidly with players about their future outlook at exit interviews.

“You never want to mislead a player, you just want to continue to challenge them to be the best they can be. Let them know that it’s always a meritocracy, certainly at the more depth parts of the lineup… But we’re not beyond saying to a player, ‘look, if there’s a better opportunity for you elsewhere and we can help you and help ourselves at the same time, we’re going to look at that as well.” </em></div></div>

My vote is still to keep him unless we are adding a veteran dman. If we risk losing him to waivers at beginning of year, so be it.

But if we can move him…and add a veteran dman, that would be ideal.