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Db_2984

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Forum: Armchair-GM6 mai 2020 à 8 h 11
Sujet: Bear and Poolparty for Kapanen and Liljgren
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>
Well yes, I'm bringing the Pesce and Parayko up.. but if you wanna use Letang, Ellis or Spurgeon.. so be it. It's still bs comparison because those players are several levels better than Bear. Until Bear proves it yearly, he is not in the same conversation when it comes to value. Not even close.</div></div>

Time will tell, of course. Here are all 4 players boxcars from their 22-year-old season:

Letang: 73, 3- 24-27 +1 (3rd full NHL season)
Ellis: 80, 6-21-27 +9 (1st full season)
Spurgeon: 70, 3-20-23 -4 (1st full season, although he played 53 games the prior year)
Bear: 71, 5-16-21 -4

Some of these guys got more PP opportunity than others, so here's their 5v5 scoring numbers:

Letang: 2-18-20 (1st pairing)
Bear: 71, 4-15-19 (1st pairing)
Ellis: 6-13-19 (3rd pairing)
Spurgeon: 70, 1-9-10 (2nd / 1st pairing)

Sure Bear needs to prove he can sustain this level of play, but it's not obvious from what I can see that these guys are "several levels" better.

As far as value goes, Bear probably has just as much as Spurgeon and Letang for two key reasons: cap hit and age. At 33, Letang doesn't have very many great years ahead - he's already sustained several serious injuries in his career - and his $7.25M cap hit until he's 35 is significant. Spurgeon has less upside than Letang and although he's a little younger, his $7.575M cap hit stretches to cover his 37-year-old season which is prohibitive for most teams.

It could be argued that Bear has at least equal trade value to Letang, greater value than Spurgeon and less value than Ellis.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 avr. 2020 à 11 h 11
Sujet: Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DiehardRedWingsFan58</b></div><div>:laugh :laugh Detroit :laugh You're not getting what amounts to a late 1st for Puljujarvi and Benning Detroit #32 pick is pretty much a late 1st round pick. Neither have that kind of value.</div></div>

Same can be said for Matt Benning. In a re-draft he'd go in the 40-45 range, acquiring him for #65 or so would be very good value. I don't think the Oilers should sell him that low, to be honest. His GF% has been consistently above 50% and consistently better than his teammates. He's good defensively, but what most don't realize is that his scoring rates have been decent too, at 0.85, 0.86 and 0.91 the past 3 seasons. Only Nurse scored at a higher rate on the Oilers this season, and only Bowey among Detroit regulars.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 avr. 2020 à 18 h 29
Sujet: Balance with Flat Cap and CBO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'd like to create a team with three scoring lines. I feel like RC is a weakness in the organization, so targeting 3 players in the 1st round this summer who have 2C upside to run the 3rd line in the future just makes so much sense. I don't know who will be available at #20, so I just listed the 3 players in order of preference. </div></div>

The Oilers depth chart also shows some weakness at LW, so I would likely target that position with the two 2nd's I got from Ottawa. I like Lukas Reichel as a replacement for Nuge (depending on the whole cap situation / expansion draft, etc, I'm not sure if there will be enough money to sign RNH) as early as 2021-22. Now I realise that's a pretty aggressive timeline, but he's already playing is a mens league as a 17-year-old (he doesn't turn 18 until mid-May), scoring 12 goals and 24 points in the same league that Stutzle managed 7 goals and 34 points. Plus, having Draisaitl for a linemate and mentor will help immensely.

Roby Järventie is a pure sniper with one of the best shot-release combinations in the draft and another LW. I see this guy as a left-shot Lavoie, not as big but a better skater. I know that "Finland" is going to raise some red flags with a lot of Oilers fans, but this guy plays a more North American style north-south game, I don't think the transition will be an issue. As an August 2002 birthday he's one of the youngest players in the draft, so I'd leave him in Finland for at least a year, probably two, before coming over to the AHL. He's also in a mens league already, having played the bulk of the season in Mestis (36, 23-15-38 +15), which is a minor pro league similar to Sweden's Allsvenskan. He played 5 games in Liiga this year, scoring 1 goal, and is expected to be in that league when the 2020-21 season begins. I see 1LW upside with this kid, I think he'd be fantastic alongside McDavid.

Picking Matt Benning's younger brother, RHD Michael, if he's available in the 3rd round seems to be a no-brainer. His scoring in the AJHL this season was very impressive: he matched Makar's draft year totals of 75 points in 54 games. He's off to college next year and should stay for a few years, but he has 2nd pairing upside and likely can run a PP pretty well. It never hurts to have another RHD in the system, especially one that has this much offence.

What do you guys think?

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Forum: Armchair-GM18 mars 2020 à 11 h 56
Sujet: No cap increase
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db_2984</b></div><div>Well somebody did not read the disclaimer! :) </div></div>
I did, actually. But your espousal for Merkley prompted me to respond, as you clearly felt the trade had fair value despite the disclaimer. It doesn't...


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db_2984</b></div><div>Disagree on Puljujarvi being worth more than a Nick Merkley, or similar player. Maybe Puljujarvi has more upside as a player, yes, but his worth to the Oilers is zero because he said he is not going to sign here. He is just a hypothetical part of the equation at this point, unless something changes, to my mind anyways. Plus the Oilers are loaded at RW with Yamo, Kassian, and Neal. Might as well get a prospect who can fill a future need for the team. I just chose Nick Merkley because he is a right-shot centre prospect, of which the Oilers have none in their system. </div></div>

Merkley is a year OLDER than Puljujarvi and scoring at about half the rate in a similar league. He's a small guy with only average skating ability, not a good combination for NHL success. His stats have declined every year for the past 3. He has less than half the value of JP.

Also, Merkley plays RW in the AHL: <a href="https://theahl.com/stats/player/6875/nick-merkley" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://theahl.com/stats/player/6875/nick-merkley</a>

Edmonton has right-shot Cooper Marody, drafted in the same year as Merkley, playing 1C on their AHL club. He missed a lot of time due to injury this year, but his career production in the AHL (0.92 P/GP) is well ahead of Merkley's (0.78 P/GP). Also, RC Aapeli Räsänen is currently in college. It's a minor weakness in the system, but to say there are "none" is a fallacy - especially when you're trying to pawn an undersized, lamost 23-year-old AHL RW off as a future star center.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db_2984</b></div><div>I have no real opinion on Mike Smith. I like how he makes the team play faster, but yeah, he's not the end all be all. Who would you pick?</div></div>

I don't know. Maybe Greiss? Khudobin? Halák?
Forum: Armchair-GM24 févr. 2020 à 14 h 31
Sujet: Thoughts on AA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db_2984</b></div><div>Lately, I have loved the Oilers drafting and was really hoping that the team would develop organically instead of through trading - though maybe that is my PTSD from the Chiarelli era. My thoughts were that 2 second round draft picks could easily turn into 2 star players that could help the team for years to come. I just imagine what the Oilers would look like if they had the picks that turned into Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier instead of Griffin Reinhart. But draft picks are like a lottery and both of them could be busts. So a proven winger like AA might be better than 2 second round picks.</div></div>

It's a risk you take trading any pick: there have been superstars selected through the 7th rounds before. Stars have been found in the now defunct 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds.

What balances that risk strictly comes down to why you're making the trade: Athanasiou is immediate help and is under club control. The 2020 second round pick isn't accomplishing anything on this roster (historically) until 3 years after his name is called at the draft. The 2021 second rounder - following that logic - wouldn't be NHL roster ready until the onset of the 2024 season. The Chiarelli regime literally admitted after the Reinhart trade that they hadn't seen him play in over a calendar year: these kind of oversights should never be allowed to happen, and probably will not be allowed to happen under Katz' dime again.