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DH28Hockey

Membre depuis
10 mai 2019
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Flyers de Philadelphie
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Forum: Armchair-GM5 déc. 2023 à 16 h 15
Forum: Armchair-GM11 nov. 2023 à 11 h 41
Forum: Mock-Draft3 oct. 2023 à 9 h 55
Sujet: 2024 Very Early Mock Draft w/ Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DH28Hockey</b></div><div>It's mostly all up to the player and when they want to come over so long as they're not under contract. In Michkov's case, his contract ends in 2026, in Demidov' case 2025. You're correct that in theory the player could sign another KHL contract and *really* screw over the team that drafts him, but that's where a team's FO needs to be comfortable that the player really wants to come over.

The only other complicated factor is the mandatory military service/upper education they require, although that's usually handled pretty swiftly and effectively by most of the player's agents (unless your name is Ivan Fedotov)</div></div>

I'm aware that it's up to the player and that's why I mentioned that a lot of players choose to play a couple of seasons in the KHL first because they can sign over $!M un like the NHL where ELCs currently max out at $950K. As far as compulsory military service goes before Russia invaded The Ukraine, if you played for Russia internationally that could count as your compulsory military obligation. I saw the IIHF sided with the Flyers so he has a valid contract. When the NHL severed with the KHL it voided all agreements the 2 leagues had in place. Around that time the IIHF banned Russia from all international play. So Russia doesn't have to comply with any decisions made by the IIHf. Russia is a f****** mess right now. So you really can't accurately predict how it will play-out.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 août 2023 à 14 h 21
Sujet: Standings predictions 2023 2024
I don't agree with all of these, but I think your analysis is pretty good. It's 100% true that there are always surprises, rarely does it ever play out how people think. Hockey is so dependent on team chemistry and getting hot at the right time. The best teams on paper almost never win.

I think for Metro Caps will be better and Rangers will be worse. Rangers it really depends on Kakko and Lafreniere imo. If both or even one of them breakout then I think that makes them a top team. If not I think they're closer to mid/upper mid. Sabres finishing second I could see. I think the Lightning have some flaws and with Buffalo boosting their defense this offseason they'll be a playoff team. I think the Panthers barely make it similar to last year, but man their defense without Ekblad and Montour is rough on the right side. The rest I agree with mostly. Not sure about the Kraken I feel they will be a really interesting team to watch. I think Stars, Carolina, Jersey, Knights will all be very very good teams that are for sure top contenders. With others like Toronto, Buffalo, Colorado, Kings, Oilers, and Penguins (I think) in that second tier of could win the cup if they get hot at the right time but not top favorites.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 août 2023 à 13 h 0
Sujet: Standings predictions 2023 2024
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DH28Hockey</b></div><div>The point I'm making is people on here constantly make these super hard lines in the sands between teams that are ultimately close, when the actual results almost never end up that way.

Even with what you're saying, that still doesn't show anyone calling them a bottom-3 team in the league or worse than the Flyers. Had someone said on here a year ago that they thought Columbus would've been worse than Philadelphia, people would've absolutely lost their minds saying "there's no way Columbus is worse than Philly", "what are you braindead" etc... Hell, the original comment in this thread I'm responding to is one saying there's no shot that a team who finished 1 spot in the standings above us last year finishes below us.</div></div>

Of course. Fans are hopelessly status quo in predictions. Average number of new playoff teams in the cap era is 6. Yet most fan predictions are overwhelmingly between 2-4 new playoff teams even though that would be a very static season. Same thing with fan predictions on postseason series and picking favorites. Fans pick the better record at mindlessly higher rates like it is the NBA even though the NHL has far more lower seeds "upsets." And most analytics models have lower variance than the actual outcomes. Further evidence that outliers are near impossible to predict from a qualitative or quantitative perspective.