NSH declines. There is no reason that Saros and Askarov can't be together and do a 1A-1B in the same way that BOS has done for the past few years.

I agree. I have done posted to that effect. Im just spitballing. At the least we should move Barrie for a pic then have fun in the playoffs.

There's no reason to sell low on Askarov (and swapping him for a mid-round 1st would be selling low on him).

It would be selling him for what you paid for him

I agree we should move Barrie if at all possible, but I don't think we should be in the business of paying to move him, especially if the cost is any of NSH's more premium assets (Askarov, Wood, Kemell, etc...). If we can get a 3rd or a 4th for him I'll be happy, but at this point I think a 3rd would be incredibly optimistic.

I honestly think Askarov has more value than Saros right now. Purely for the fact that goalies don't have a whole lot of value in a trade, but a young, cost controlled one who appears to be a future stud? He's got a ton of value right now. Any team that would get him has control of his future and can lock him in long term for a reasonable price, which is more valuable than Saros who would look to cash in on his next contract.

There's a reason Trotz was only dangling him out there at the draft last year when it was to move up to get one of the top 4 centers

NSH would never do this, nor should they.

Yesterday's price is not today's. He's developed well since his draft, increased his value, and he's closer to making an impact in the NHL, which no player drafted in the middle of the first round would be expected to make for a couple of years.

Askarov was drafted 11OA. Trading him for a pick that is currently projected to be 16OA is the definition of selling him for less. Additionally, he has gotten better.

I disagree. Askarov was an 11OA pick, who's stock has climbed since he was drafted. NJ's 1st is currently 16OA. Even if this were an off-season trade after the lottery and NJ was offering a 2024 11OA, it's still a step back for NSH. The four years of developing Askarov would be a loss, as NSH would have to wait even longer for whoever they take with NJ's 1st to be NHL ready.

Goalies are volatile and unpredictable. AHL success is not indicative of NHL success.

I’d be shocked if his value has increased in any meaningful way since the trade. Allegedly he was packaged with 2 other 1sts to try and move up this past draft.

Has it climbed?

I don’t think he’d go top 11 in a redraft.

Stutzle, Mercer, Laffy, Jarvis, Raymond, Lundell, Byfield, JJ Peterka, Perfetti, Sanderson, Jack Quinn, Drysdale, Rossi, Faber, Guhle, Nikishin.

You could throw in arguments of Holtz, Chinakov, Zary, Neighbours, Schneider, Mukh, etc

Even from that draft class Nico Daws and Levi have been playing at the NHL level

It's also not a perfect reference but based on the pick value chart and the confirmed offer of Askarov+15th for 5th overall:

5th overall: 8.2 GSVA
15th: 4.9 GSVA
Gap: 3.3 GSVA, or approximately equivalent to a valuation of Askarov as being worth pick 26 overall.

Even if you value 5th overall last year as being equal to 3rd overall in a normal year (10.2) (and in which case you'd also probably increase the value of pick 15 as well), that would place the valuation of Askarov at 5.3 GSVA or equivalent to 13th overall.

Again this is based on an offer from Nashville.

It was a deep draft we knew that going in. The devils had 3 picks in that first round. You think in a redraft looking at what they need now they would pass on Askarov at 7 if they thought he wouldn't be there at 18? Goalies are volatile, but a great one is infinitely more valuable to a team than a top 6 forward or top 4dman.

Other than Faber, Stutzle, and Byfield all of those guys you listed aren't franchise players.

And Daws and Levi were thrust into the NHL and haven't had much success, so they weren't ready, Askarov has the benefit of being allowed to develop properly. Askarov has only played a couple of games at the NHL level but didn't look out of place.

I meant Askarov's value is higher now than it was at the time he was drafted, because he's a better goalie now then he was back then, and closer to being NHL ready.

I wasn't really talking about where he'd go in a re-draft. I think goaltending being a specialized position that it is, team needs would have the biggest impact on his draft position, in a re-draft. Still, I think he'd get taken before many, if mot the majority of those names you listed.

Daws and Levi having more NHL experience at this point than Askarov speaks more to their teams being more desperate for competent goaltending. I think it's safe to say neither player is nearly as good as Askarov, and if NJ or BUF had a goalie like Saros, they'd prefer to let their prospect get better in the AHL, right now.

Just to clear up confusion they wouldn't have made that trade as the board fell because they weren't giving that much up for Reinbacher. They wanted Will Smith or whoever fell.

And to couple with the fact that his value has risen since the draft last year.

We would not take Askarov over any of the following at 7 in a redraft:

Stutzle, Mercer, Laffy, Jarvis, Raymond, Lundell, Byfield, JJ Peterka, Perfetti, Sanderson, Jack Quinn, Drysdale, Rossi, Faber, Guhle, Nikishin.

Also who's to say he wouldn't fall to 18.

Askarov hasn't shown anything at the NHL level. It's the AHL. Alex Holtz for example was dominant in the AHL all the way back in 2021.

I'd offer Holtz for Askarov 1 for 1 tho.

Which is why I converted it to 3rd overall (where I'd slot Will Smith in a average draft).

The devils drafted Holtz at the 7 spot. If you're saying you'd swap them then you're saying he's worth the 7th pick in a redraft

Also four teams in front of the devils at 18 are the Oilers, Leafs, Canes, and Canadiens. All of them would heavily value someone who might be a franchise goaltender

No I'm saying Holtz isn't worth the 7th pick in a redraft.

Again, AHL production is nice and promising but Mavrik Bourque is leading the AHL in scoring. Do you hear about him going above all these productive NHLers in a redraft?

I feel the need to point out again other than Faber, Stutzle, and Byfield, none of those other players appear to be franchise defining at this point in their careers where we can more reasonably project that. Askarov absolutely has that potential which gives him more value and would put him at least in the top 10.

And a redraft you can more clearly evaluate the needs of the team. Do you really think you need another winger or dman more than a goalie?

And to point out Askarov has played in the NHL. Granted it was a limited sample size, but he didn't look out of place. His stats for the time he was up was 1.47 GAA and a .943 Sv%. Very limited sample size, but a very solid performance.

Again, if any of these guys were in the AHL they would be tearing it to shreds.

Sure askarov has the highest upside. He also has by far the lowest floor. We know that every one of the players I listed (except Nikishin) can be a productive NHLer. Now you're getting into just the nuances of why goalies are so volatile (and why they get so little in Trades, Contracts, and are drafted so late compared to other positions).

Seems like you're holding all these guys to a much higher standard. Why can askarov, an AHLer at 22, turn elite, but a 22 year old who's shown effectiveness as a top 6 forward or top 4 winger not take that next step.

And even then the position don't have to turn into franchise defining players.

Bo Horvat vs Ilya Sorokin. Horvat got paid more (more valuable to an NHL team in their eyes). I'd bet on almost all of the guys I listed turning into a Bo Horvat over Askarov being on the level of Sorokin.
Mark Schiefele vs Connor Hellebuyuck. They got the same. I'd bet on most of the guys I listed becoming Schiefele over Askarov becoming Hellebuyuck.

I feel like we got away from the main point I tried to make which was Askarov has more value now than he did when he was drafted. I'm not trying to say any of those guys are not valuable or won't turn into fantastic players, some franchise some not. I'm saying while I understand the league values goalies differently Askarov's value is higher now and has continue to go up. I also think he goes higher in a redraft because of hindsight teams that feel they are a goalie away can grab one that has that ceiling.

You're saying he doesn't have as much value because of his placement in the draft class. I'm saying his value is higher because that was a great class and he still very likely goes high in the first round in a redraft.

I hate debating in a forum like this because going back through the thread to check what was said to make sure I'm not misspeaking is tedious.

I'm saying his value is approximately the same primarily based on the offer that Nashville themselves put on the table. I don't think another good season in the AHL changed his value in a meaningful way at this age.

I disagree, that value is not a good indicator because I do believe his dominant season in the AHL deserves consideration. I do value his AHL play because he's more likely to face someone who has an NHL shot than someone shooting in the AHL is to face an NHL goalie. His maturation and development this year matters, saying it doesn't feels unreasonable. That's like saying that each one of those guys you listed earlier who hasn't taken a step forward in the NHL will never improve or take the next step. Someone like Lundell for instance who some would say took a step back this year.