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SnipeRV

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Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 14 h 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>westleysnipez</b></div><div>I provided a screenshot of his stats at 5v5. No one uses ES all situations. You need to compare it at 5v5.

You brought up xGF%. Now that I've shown you're wrong, you say we can't use GF%? Get outta here trying to change the rules halfway through the game.

To your point about Josi-Fabbro, it's very clear who is carrying who on that line. You were just complaining that Dermott was carried by a better Leafs team when his main partner that season was Zach Bogosian. Also worth noting is that Fabbro plays 0 special teams minutes alongside Josi, only at 5v5, with a majority of their starts coming in the offensive zone. It's easy to see that Brunette has that as a sheltered pairing to cover for Fabbro's mistakes.

That's not Josi replacing Fabbro, that's McDonagh replacing Fabbro, and that's way worse. If Brunette felt confident in Fabbro's ability, he'd also be double shifted out there with Josi, but he isn't. That speaks more to the fact that the coach doesn't trust Fabbro because Fabbro isn't more than a bottom-pairing guy.</div></div>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/report/travis-dermott-787">Dermott Scouting Report from Feb 2022</a>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/report/dante-fabbro-235904">Fabbro Scouting Report from 2023</a>

Dude at this point just admit they aren't the same. Independent scouting reports. If Dermott gets a 3rd in return Fabbro for sure gets better,
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 13 h 53
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>westleysnipez</b></div><div>I provided a screenshot of his stats at 5v5. No one uses ES all situations. You need to compare it at 5v5.

You brought up xGF%. Now that I've shown you're wrong, you say we can't use GF%? Get outta here trying to change the rules halfway through the game.

To your point about Josi-Fabbro, it's very clear who is carrying who on that line. You were just complaining that Dermott was carried by a better Leafs team when his main partner that season was Zach Bogosian. Also worth noting is that Fabbro plays 0 special teams minutes alongside Josi, only at 5v5, with a majority of their starts coming in the offensive zone. It's easy to see that Brunette has that as a sheltered pairing to cover for Fabbro's mistakes.

That's not Josi replacing Fabbro, that's McDonagh replacing Fabbro, and that's way worse. If Brunette felt confident in Fabbro's ability, he'd also be double shifted out there with Josi, but he isn't. That speaks more to the fact that the coach doesn't trust Fabbro because Fabbro isn't more than a bottom-pairing guy.</div></div>

1) xGF% and GF% are very different, do you not get that? One includes a TON of luck! GF% is like using +/-.
2) I do agree that Josi makes him look better, no doubt about that. He makes any D partner look better.
3) I have no clue how you came to the assumption its McD replacing Fabbro and why that would be worse lol. Brunette puts together our best 2 defensemen to give them extra shifts and because Josi said he likes playing on his off hand sometimes (which means, yes, it is Josi replacing Fabbro I don't get how you don't get that). No shame in it. Fabbro is our 3rd/4th best D man. It's a toss up between him and Carrier depending on the night.
4) If you think I meant Dermott was propped up by his D partner you are out of your mind. Toronto has had a bad D for years now. Dermott's xGF% stats look good because he was playing with much better forwards than Fabbro. Very easy to understand.
5) Yeah Fabbro would have more value if he played special teams. On the PP, of course he isn't getting time. Josi eats up all the minutes and when Barrie is in the lineup he gets the 2nd PP. Hard to argue Fabbro over either of those guys. When Barrie is not in the lineup its a revolving door of McD/Carrier/Fabbs.

I think you are starting to realize you were wrong. For one, you included a dude who played 2 NHL games that season as a comp. And you also get the difference between Fabbro playing 1st pair and Dermott playing 3rd pair. Any team would.

At the end of the day it will be easy to see you were wrong once Fabbro either gets dealt or gets resigned here. Dermott played 11 NHL games the season after he was traded then took a pay cut to sign with the Yotes. Be 100% honest, do you see that happening to Fabbro? If you do, you are out of your mind.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 11 h 27
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>westleysnipez</b></div><div>I use Corsi because that's a relatively easy staff for new fans to understand compared to others.

<a href="https://i.imgur.com/bnSFcxf.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">At 5v5, Fabbro's GF% is 48.78, and his xGF% 4th on the Preds defense (min. 200 TOI).</a>

If Fabbro was playing like a Top-4 guy, then Brunette would have every reason to play him up the lineup. Also, I can't see any time that Fabbro has been given top pairing minutes, the last time Fabbro had over 19 mins in a game was Nov. 18 vs. Chicago. <a href="https://i.imgur.com/lJlvADY.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">In fact, Fabbro's TOI has been well below his season average over the last 5 games. </a>

That quote describes Fabbro as much as it did Dermott.</div></div>

No his xGF% is at even strength is 2nd on Preds defense. Only McD is higher than him. Not sure how you got 4th. Evolving-hockey defaults to adjusting for score and venue. When you remove that he's 3rd behind Josi and McD. Either way, he and Josi are essentially neck and neck.

Please don't use GF% for a D man. They don't control the shooting % of the guys on the ice or really the save % of the goalie.

And for TOI, Josi-Fabbro are our most used D pair all year combining for 406min TOI together. The issue is essentially that Josi gets double shifted sometimes with McD because Brunette leans heavily on Josi and McDonagh (since they are our 2 best defenseman and also our 2 highest paid defensemen...). A lot of times Jos will slide over to RD when that happens, eating up minutes from Carrier and Fabbro. If you want me to argue that Fabbro should be played more over Josi your crazy lol.

Take a look at the TOI for our top 3 D men, all left handed. Mainly because Josi plays so much. Can't argue with that.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 10 h 5
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 9 h 58
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>westleysnipez</b></div><div>Fabbro is not worth that much. He's 25 y/o defenseman who plays bottom-pairing minutes and has been passed by better, younger players; he barely contributes to special teams (0 PP TOI, 5th in PK TOI among NSH D) and has a negative Corsi 5v5. You can't even sell the fact that he's young anymore, he's the average age of an NHLer. Only one season where he's had over 15 points for a supposed puck-moving defenseman, not a good look. The only things going for him is he's RFA expiry and a right hand shot.

I think he's only worth a 3rd at this point, but I wouldn't want the Canucks to move a 3rd for him as it is.

Fabbro | NSH | 25 y/o | 290 GP | 68 Pts |

Comparables:

Travis Dermott (2022 (25 y/o) | TOR&gt;VAN | 251 GP | 52 Pts) for a 3rd

Madison Bowey (2020 (25 y/o) | CHI &gt; VAN | 156 GP | 40 Pts) for a 4th + 5th</div></div>

I love your detailed breakdown! But here are a few things you might be missing...

First off, lets exclude Bowey. He got traded in 2021 not 2020. In that season he only played 2 NHL games... not a good comp lol.

Secondly, the one piece of analytics you use is corsi??? Not that any one number is all-encompassing, but at least grab some more data!

Fabbro - 54% xGF% at even strength this year. 2nd best out of all our D men. 0.24 points per game as well. Also been playing on our top pairing recently.

Dermott - 57.5% xGF! But 4th out of TOR D men that year (Toronto was a much better team overall). He was about average compared to his teammates. He was also pretty much relegated to the 3rd pair that year. Only .12 points per game...

Here's an excerpt from the trade recap.

"Two or three years ago, there was a ton of optimism in Toronto that Dermott could become a top-four defenceman. He’s unfortunately trended much closer to Group 2 than he has Group 1 and at 25, he most likely projects as a bottom-pair fixture. But there is an outside chance that a fresh start and more opportunity could change that."
Forum: Armchair-GM25 janv. à 14 h 25
Sujet: Novak
Forum: Armchair-GM24 janv. à 10 h 54