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Handicapping the Collin Graf sweepstakes

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Équipe: 2023-24 Équipe personnalisée
Date de création initiale: 20 févr. 2024
Publié: 20 févr. 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
As you all probably know, it has been announced that Collin Graf will sign an an NHL deal in April.

He will be the most highly sought after NCAA free agent in years.

----

Who is Colin Graf?

Right wing for Quinnipiac. He was a late birthday and went undrafted in 2021. In a redraft today, he would probably go around 10-15 range (after Beniers, McTavish, Johnson, Johnston, Eklund, Stankoven, Guenther…in same range as Knies, Coronato…ahead of Othmann, Rosen, Lysell, Lucius, Sillinger).

In 2022-23, as Sophomore transfer from Union, he was NCAA champ and a 1st All-American (along with Levi, Faber, Hughes, Hutson, Fantilli, Cooley, Knies, Farrell). He was also top-3 in scoring (only behind Fantilli and Cooley). Last Spring, he was reportedly offered full NHL deals from a majority of NHL teams (usually the top undrafted players out of NCAA will have a handful to chose from…maybe 10 at most). He will likely get his choice of landing spots.

In 2023-24, he returned for his second Quinnipiac season and was said to have gained 20 lbs in off-season. His year started slowly, missing a few games due to injury. Since, he has compiled 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points in 26 games. He is among top-10 in NCAA in points (7th), goals (8th), ppg (2nd). And he is the only player with 100+ points over last two seasons. (Rizzo is next with 90, Blake, Gauthier, Snuggerud all in low 80s). And he has done it in a highly defensive-oriented program.

----

Which NHL team will get him?

Nearly every team will try. And its been hard to get information on his preferences, but based on what we do know, we can guess some favorites.

Here are some of the teams that might become front runners for him. Boston may be favorite as they are hometown team and friends have said that would be his dream. He grew up playing for Jr Bruins. But he also wants to play right away and it may be a crowded lineup. He attended his first training camp in Florida in summer of 2022 and went all out to try and sign him last year. Nashville has often been aggressive with NCAA free agents under previous regime and had Graf to their development camp last summer.

Vegas has been scouting him heavily this year and reportedly attempted to sign him last year. Colorado is one of the few contenders that could probably find a spot on lineup. Unknown if they made offer last year. Vancouver has had frequent scouts at his games this year and was among teams to make an offer last year. Carolina attempted to sign last year and were successful in inking his teammate Perets. San Jose has been rumored to be sniffing around and can probably guarantee playing time right away. Arizona is likely to sign his linemate (Lipkin) and there has even been some talk about bringing Graf, Quillon, Lipkin, one of the best lines (if not, THE best line) in NCAA to Arizona as a unit (Quillon is probably among the top-5 NCAA free agents this year).

Rough guess at what I'd think Odds would look like:


BOS: +700
FLA: +900

NSH: +1100

VGK: +1800
COL: +1900
VAN: +2000

CAR: +2300
SJS: +2300

ARI: +2500

MIN: +3000
STL: +3000

BUF: +4000
CGY: +4000
CBJ: +4000
LAK: +4000
NJD: +4000
PIT: +4000

ANA: +6000
CHI: +6000
DAL: +6000
MTL: +6000
OTT: +6000
SEA: +6000
TBL: +6000
WAS: +6000

DET: +8000
EDM: +8000
NYI: +8000
NYR: +8000
PHI: +8000
TOR: +8000
WPG: +8000




--------

My top NCAA free agents this year

1. Collin Graf (RW, Quinnpiac)


[Big Gap]



2. Riese Gaber (RW, North Dakota)
3. Jacob Quillan (C, Quinnpiac)


4. Colton Huard (RHD, UNH)
5. Drew Bavaro (RHD, Notre Dame)
6. Ryan Bischel (G, Notre Dame)

7. Karsen Dorwart (C, Michigan State)
8. Dylan Anhorn (LHD, St Cloud State)
9. Jacob Bengtsson (LHD, Boston University)
10. TJ Hughes (C, Michigan)
11. Ondrej Psenicka (LW, Cornell)
12. Zach Bookman (RHD, Merrimack)

13. Luke Grainger (C, Western Michigan)
14. Joey Larson (RW, Michigan State)
15. Luke Krys (RHD, Providence)
16. Josh Nadeau (LW, Maine)
17. Blake Pietila (G, Michigan Tech)
18. Lynden Breen (C, Maine)
19. Justin Hryckowian (C/W, Northeastern)
20. Carter Wilkie (C, RIT)
21. Pito Walton (RHD, Northeastern)
22. Victor Ostman (G, Maine)


--------

Some worthwhile guys with Expiring Rights (or could elect free agency on August 15th)

-- Alex Campbell (LW, Northeastern) (NSH)
-- Hunter McDonald (LHD, Northeastern) (PHI)
-- Alex Jefferies (LW, Merrimack) (NYI)
-- Stephen Halliday (C, Ohio State) (OTT)
-- Sam Colangelo (RW, Northeastern) (ANA)
-- Landon Slaggert (C, Notre Dame) (CHI)
-- Mike Koster (LHD, Minnesota) (TOR)
-- Connor Kelley (RHD, Providence) (CHI)
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
3283 500 000 $25 600 000 $0 $0 $57 900 000 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
BOS, Bruins
800 000 $800 000 $
CAR, Hurricanes
800 000 $800 000 $
ARI, Coyotes
800 000 $800 000 $
FLA, Panthers
800 000 $800 000 $
COL, Avalanche
800 000 $800 000 $
BUF, Sabres
800 000 $800 000 $
NSH, Predators
800 000 $800 000 $
SJS, Sharks
800 000 $800 000 $
CBJ, Blue Jackets
800 000 $800 000 $
VAN, Canucks
800 000 $800 000 $
CGY, Flames
800 000 $800 000 $
VGK, Golden Knights
800 000 $800 000 $
LAK, Kings
800 000 $800 000 $
MIN, Wild
800 000 $800 000 $
NJD, Devils
800 000 $800 000 $
PIT, Penguins
800 000 $800 000 $
STL, Blues
800 000 $800 000 $
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
ANA, Ducks
800 000 $800 000 $
DET, Red Wings
800 000 $800 000 $
CHI, Blackhawks
800 000 $800 000 $
EDM, Oilers
800 000 $800 000 $
DAL, Stars
800 000 $800 000 $
NYI, Islanders
800 000 $800 000 $
MTL, Canadiens
800 000 $800 000 $
NYR, Rangers
800 000 $800 000 $
OTT, Senators
800 000 $800 000 $
PHI, Flyers
800 000 $800 000 $
SEA, Kraken
800 000 $800 000 $
TOR, Maple Leafs
800 000 $800 000 $
TBL, Lightning
800 000 $800 000 $
WPG, Jets
800 000 $800 000 $
WAS, Capitals
800 000 $800 000 $

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20 févr. à 8 h 41
#1
Sennecke is a gem
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He's going to NYR. Hot take maybe, but it seems they are always on top for UFA signings
20 févr. à 9 h 0
#2
Hunter Mikosz
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He is going to Philly to become a staple with some of the other guys.
20 févr. à 10 h 7
#3
Leafs going to Leafs
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I think Toronto could use him next year:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Tsylakov-JT-Nylander
Bert-Minten-Graf
Domi-Kampf-McMann
Gregor-Holmberg-Reaves
20 févr. à 10 h 26
#4
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I think the Hurricanes might take a shot at him. His former teammates father is the head coach and his teammate Yaniv Perets is already in the Hurricanes system
20 févr. à 12 h 22
#5
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Quoting: Caufield
He's going to NYR. Hot take maybe, but it seems they are always on top for UFA signings


They do...(2nd to PIT - see below).
I don't think they have been linked to Graf, but I could be wrong.

Here are the most including AHL deals over last decade

PIT…..27
NYR…20
SJS…..18
BOS…17

VAN…16
EDM…14
WAS…14
CHI….13

COL…13
MIN…13
TOR…13
CGY…12

DET…11
FLA….11
PHI….11
ANA…10

BUF…10
CAR…10
CBJ…10
LAK…10

NJD…10
NYI…10
ARI….9
DAL…9

MTL…9
NSH…8
OTT…8
TBL….6

STL….5
WPG…5
VGK…2
SEA....0
20 févr. à 12 h 23
#6
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Quoting: Your_Next_General_Manager
He is going to Philly to become a staple with some of the other guys.


Philly? To play under Torts?
20 févr. à 12 h 27
#7
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Quoting: seanrushton
I think the Hurricanes might take a shot at him. His former teammates father is the head coach and his teammate Yaniv Perets is already in the Hurricanes system


I thought of that. It probably helps. But two issues, one, can they give him a spot in NHL lineup? (He will have options...many will guarantee NHL roster spot). Two, if he doesn't get spot...Carolina has no AHL team...so could be an issue (I think it could be factor for Morrow too)
20 févr. à 12 h 28
#8
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
I think Toronto could use him next year:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Tsylakov-JT-Nylander
Bert-Minten-Graf
Domi-Kampf-McMann
Gregor-Holmberg-Reaves


He is signing in two months, maybe less.
20 févr. à 12 h 34
#9
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
I thought of that. It probably helps. But two issues, one, can they give him a spot in NHL lineup? (He will have options...many will guarantee NHL roster spot). Two, if he doesn't get spot...Carolina has no AHL team...so could be an issue (I think it could be factor for Morrow too)


We'll almost certainly figure out the AHL situation and we have enough spots in our rosters free due to expiring contracts that we can probably find a third or fourth line spot for him
20 févr. à 13 h 34
#10
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
He is signing in two months, maybe less.


Even better...

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-JT-Nylander
Bert-Domi-Graf
Jarnkrok-Kampf-McMann
Gregor-Holmberg-Reaves can come in and out depending on mood
 
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