Quoting: nativewulf
I mean I'll answer the question but I think it'd be more polite to answer mine first before asking me another. so I'll say it again, what would you give up to get a top line center making 4.5 mil until 26-27
So Nashville's biggest needs right now are a top pairing RD and center depth. Specifically a long term center for the future. They are looking at trading Saros for one of those pieces so let's assume they make a trade to get one of those pieces. As an example I'll use Carolina. Let's say they trade Saros and get Necas or Morrow in return. They now have someone who can play center behind ROR and get experience and provide better depth or play on the top pairing alongside Josi. Assuming then that they trade Novak they can get another 1st this year. Maybe you package those in a trade to get one of the top 4 centers in this draft like Helenius or a top RD like Parekh. Factor in you've got prospects like Ryan Ufko, Tanner Molendyk, Matt Wood, Askarov, Kemell, L'Hereaux, Svechkov, Graham Sward, and the list goes on. They've got a top 10 prospect pool and if only half of these guys hit their projections or get close you've got your middle six and top 4 D men. Filip Forsberg will only be 33 and Roman Josi will be the same age as O'Reilly. I don't see any of those three having such a significant fall off that they're not going to help the team compete for a Stanley Cup. So assuming like I said in the first post that Trotz trades his assets right and drafts smart. In 3 years the Predators could absolutely be contending again. It's not like they're the Sharks, no offense to Sharks fans or the team. Nashville isn't perfect but they're not full of holes. They're competing for a playoff spot right now even though we sold assets last year and planned on starting to rebuild/retool. They have a lot of prospects with upside and just a few need to hit to get them back in the playoff mix. Not to mention free agents seem to love Nashville and it's an attractive spot to land any guys that find themselves without a team every summer. so yeah you may not see it but the Predators absolutely have a chance to be competing and contending in the next few years
Okay, I'll get to your question at the end, but I definitely think you're painting a pretty rosey picture that isn't realistic.
So, we're talking about this season, and the next three - the term that ROR has. You mentioned three players that you don't see there being a decline on, Filip Forsberg, currently 29, Roman Josi, currently 33, and ROR, currently 33. When we're talking about Forsberg, in all likelihood his prime is something we're talking about in the past tense. Usually speedy wingers have a prime between 22-29, and very frequently there is a sharp decline after 30. When you're saying a scoring winger will, "only be 33," we're off to a rough start. ROR, listen he's playing great this year - there are a lot of reasons for that - but everyone should expect that there will be a decline with each passing year. Josi, tough to tell. Usually D men age better, but I think we can all agree he's out of his prime. Still very good, but not the player he was.
Now, the prospects - you say if half of them fill their projections - ya. of course. that would be an extremely high rate of hitting on prospects. plan on 20%-25%. You're also listing a bunch of fourth and fifth rounders that haven't played a professional game. Those guys have a really low rate of panning out. If they do - you think they're making up the core group of a contender in the next 3-4 years? That's a serious stretch.
That Saros trade - ya, that's a real stretch. Necas and they're best prospect? I don't think they would get Necas.
I'm still not seeing a path. Let's say by some miracle, Forsberg, ROR, and Josi are the same players they are today - and yes, that would be a minor miracle. Where's the scoring depth? What is that blue line looking like? Who is in net?
On to O'Reilly - he's playing as Nashville's top center, but I sort of doubt the league will see him as such. He's getting a ton of minutes - more than any contender will be able to give him. He's done a massive portion of his scoring on the powerplay, and most contenders aren't going to have that kind of powerplay time to give. He ranks 49th among centers in even strength scoring. For reference, that's behind a guy like Trent Frederic (though in fairness he's barely a center), who gets about 65% of the TOI of O'Reilly. I think most teams look at him as a really good 3C. Under normal circumstances, that's probably a Monahan price tag, though I do think it should be more given that like you said, Nashville is under no obligation to trade him.
That being said, I think too things happened this year that would likely have surprised Barry Trotz, that could lead him to consider moving the player.
1. O'Reilly performing as well as he has
2. Nashville being worse than management expected.
From a risk mitigation standpoint, I would think that Trotz can absolutely see a scenario where ROR takes a step back, as do the predators, and that deal becomes something that can be moved for neutral value at best. If I'm Boston, I would most a first and a good prospect for him. If that's a non-starter, I get it. However I don't think it's completely impossible that Trotz would view it as a pretty big success to buy a first round pick + for paying ROR for a few months, and i don't find it ridiculous that O'Reilly would be eager to play for a contender for the rest of his career.