Quoting: RipNasty
Look, a 26 year old who has scored at a 90+ point pace since he was in his 2nd season and is a Selke finalist is what we are talking about here. To suggest his value is anything but immense is about as dumb as it gets. What's his value? Boat loads of stuff......but not for Marner. He's worth very little because insert whatever blatant self justification you want to throw out.
"Boat loads of stuff" is an extremely subjective term. A lot of folks would say that a package bigger than what Jack Eichel got would qualify as "boat loads of stuff".
I think the problem with people valuing a guy like Marner is there's an extremely limited history of comps to look at. Trading a guy like TJ Brodie? Sure, I can probably point to a handful of trades in the past few years that would make sense as comparisons. But, like you said, Marner is an immense talent and guys like that never get traded so people around here have no idea what to do with him.
The best comp in "recent" history I can find is Ilya Kovalchuk - he was 26, he was a 90 point scorer, and he was making money that was fairly equivalent to what Marner makes now (when it was signed in 2005-06, Kovalchuk's $6.4M AAV counted as 16.4% of the $39M salary cap while Marner's $10.9M cap hit was 13.4% of the $81.5M cap when he signed; Kovalchuk's contract was worth 11.3% of the cap when it was at the same point as Marner's deal is now and it costs 13.1%). Marner is a better defender, but I'd say Kovalchuk gets some of that value back by being a better goalscorer than Marner is - and like I said, we've got limited history to work with, and this is the closest we're gonna get comp wise.
The Kovalchuk trade had the Thrashers sending him, a 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft, and Anssi Salmela (6th/7th D type) to the Devils for a 1st & 2nd in the upcoming draft, Patrice Cormier (recent 2nd round pick in the midst of a PPG season in the QMJHL), Johnny Oduya (strong two-way defender getting 20+ minutes a night in his 3rd NHL season), & Niclas Bergfors (former 1st round pick, 22 y/o, scoring at a 40 point pace as a middle-6 winger)
The pick values wound up being #38 going to NJD for #24 & #54 - a difference in value more or less equivalent to a pick in the #30-32 range. So the best trade you can point to that actually happened that is comparable to a potential Marner trade brough back a late 1st, an established roster player in a middle-line/pair role, a prospect with NHL experience, and another B-tier prospect.
If I had to use that template to try and build a package that the Kings would send to the Leafs here, well we've got the 2024 1st. The established roster player in a middle-line/pair role would probably be someone like Adrian Kempe or Matt Roy, the younger prospect would be someone like Arthur Kaliyev or Jordan Spence, and the last slot would be someone like Sam Helenius I guess?
So which package is better:
Clarke + PLD + 1st + 2nd + 2nd
or
Kempe + Spence + Helenius + 1st
NHL GMs are cowards that hate setting precedent (one of the main reasons a Marner trade is something that only exists on message boards like this, tbh) and they're loathe to make a move that does not have something they can point back to as a comparison. If you don't think they'd look at trades like the Jack Eichel trade or this Ilya Kovalchuk trade when they're setting their values, I don't know what to tell you. I just don't think it's "anti-Leafs bias" to try and point to things that actually have happened in the real world as basis for an ACGM, and I don't think it's "anti-Leaf bias" for fans of a team sending out a package to maybe not want to part with that many pieces at once.