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Forums/Armchair-GM

What Id do

Créé par: JAKE6
Équipe: 2023-24 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 11 févr. 2024
Publié: 11 févr. 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Transactions
1.
TOR
  1. Clarke, Brandt
  2. Dubois, Pierre-Luc
  3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (LAK)
  4. Choix de 2e ronde en 2025 (LAK)
  5. Choix de 2e ronde en 2026 (LAK)
Détails additionnels:
Dubois is a decent player, high compete when he feels like it and can be physical at times, i believe he’s a supporting PWF, who will get more points playing with elite players. Kinda like knies, he should not be running his own line, also shouldn’t be playing C ( imo )
2.
TOR
CGY
  1. Giordano, Mark
Détails additionnels:
Plz retire
3.
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2024
Logo de TOR
Logo de NYI
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de CGY
Logo de VAN
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de OTT
2025
Logo de LAK
Logo de LAK
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de CHI
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
2026
Logo de TOR
Logo de LAK
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2283 500 000 $82 308 450 $0 $0 $1 191 550 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Kings de Los Angeles
8 500 000 $8 500 000 $
C
UFA - 8
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
11 640 250 $11 640 250 $
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
6 962 366 $6 962 366 $
AD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
925 000 $925 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
C, AG
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
796 667 $796 667 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
C, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
775 000 $775 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
834 167 $834 167 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
800 000 $800 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
1 350 000 $1 350 000 $
AD
UFA - 3
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
7 500 000 $7 500 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
3 550 000 $3 550 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Blue Jackets de Columbus
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
875 000 $875 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
775 000 $775 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
775 000 $775 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
2 400 000 $2 400 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 625 000 $5 625 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
2 100 000 $2 100 000 $
AD, C, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
4 687 500 $4 687 500 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
4 150 000 $4 150 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
766 667 $766 667 $
G
UFA - 2

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13 févr. à 10 h 29
#26
we miss leo k
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Quoting: RipNasty
Hilarious


I mean, feel free to chime in with your valuation. I know it goes against your gimmick of "thinking everyone in the world is against the Leafs" to actually engage, but I'd love to hear what kind of valuation you'd put on him in a trade.
13 févr. à 12 h 36
#27
Banni
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
I mean, feel free to chime in with your valuation. I know it goes against your gimmick of "thinking everyone in the world is against the Leafs" to actually engage, but I'd love to hear what kind of valuation you'd put on him in a trade.


Marner has no value according to this site, saying literally anything and I am a homer. What's the point
13 févr. à 12 h 42
#28
we miss leo k
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Quoting: RipNasty
Marner has no value according to this site, saying literally anything and I am a homer. What's the point


To actually, y'know, participate in the conversation and engage with the concepts being thrown around here instead of constantly being a Leafs-themed Rodney Dangerfield?
13 févr. à 13 h 8
#29
Banni
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
To actually, y'know, participate in the conversation and engage with the concepts being thrown around here instead of constantly being a Leafs-themed Rodney Dangerfield?


Look, a 26 year old who has scored at a 90+ point pace since he was in his 2nd season and is a Selke finalist is what we are talking about here. To suggest his value is anything but immense is about as dumb as it gets. What's his value? Boat loads of stuff......but not for Marner. He's worth very little because insert whatever blatant self justification you want to throw out.
13 févr. à 14 h 0
#30
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Quoting: RipNasty
Look, a 26 year old who has scored at a 90+ point pace since he was in his 2nd season and is a Selke finalist is what we are talking about here. To suggest his value is anything but immense is about as dumb as it gets. What's his value? Boat loads of stuff......but not for Marner. He's worth very little because insert whatever blatant self justification you want to throw out.


"Boat loads of stuff" is an extremely subjective term. A lot of folks would say that a package bigger than what Jack Eichel got would qualify as "boat loads of stuff".

I think the problem with people valuing a guy like Marner is there's an extremely limited history of comps to look at. Trading a guy like TJ Brodie? Sure, I can probably point to a handful of trades in the past few years that would make sense as comparisons. But, like you said, Marner is an immense talent and guys like that never get traded so people around here have no idea what to do with him.

The best comp in "recent" history I can find is Ilya Kovalchuk - he was 26, he was a 90 point scorer, and he was making money that was fairly equivalent to what Marner makes now (when it was signed in 2005-06, Kovalchuk's $6.4M AAV counted as 16.4% of the $39M salary cap while Marner's $10.9M cap hit was 13.4% of the $81.5M cap when he signed; Kovalchuk's contract was worth 11.3% of the cap when it was at the same point as Marner's deal is now and it costs 13.1%). Marner is a better defender, but I'd say Kovalchuk gets some of that value back by being a better goalscorer than Marner is - and like I said, we've got limited history to work with, and this is the closest we're gonna get comp wise.

The Kovalchuk trade had the Thrashers sending him, a 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft, and Anssi Salmela (6th/7th D type) to the Devils for a 1st & 2nd in the upcoming draft, Patrice Cormier (recent 2nd round pick in the midst of a PPG season in the QMJHL), Johnny Oduya (strong two-way defender getting 20+ minutes a night in his 3rd NHL season), & Niclas Bergfors (former 1st round pick, 22 y/o, scoring at a 40 point pace as a middle-6 winger)

The pick values wound up being #38 going to NJD for #24 & #54 - a difference in value more or less equivalent to a pick in the #30-32 range. So the best trade you can point to that actually happened that is comparable to a potential Marner trade brough back a late 1st, an established roster player in a middle-line/pair role, a prospect with NHL experience, and another B-tier prospect.

If I had to use that template to try and build a package that the Kings would send to the Leafs here, well we've got the 2024 1st. The established roster player in a middle-line/pair role would probably be someone like Adrian Kempe or Matt Roy, the younger prospect would be someone like Arthur Kaliyev or Jordan Spence, and the last slot would be someone like Sam Helenius I guess?

So which package is better:

Clarke + PLD + 1st + 2nd + 2nd

or

Kempe + Spence + Helenius + 1st

NHL GMs are cowards that hate setting precedent (one of the main reasons a Marner trade is something that only exists on message boards like this, tbh) and they're loathe to make a move that does not have something they can point back to as a comparison. If you don't think they'd look at trades like the Jack Eichel trade or this Ilya Kovalchuk trade when they're setting their values, I don't know what to tell you. I just don't think it's "anti-Leafs bias" to try and point to things that actually have happened in the real world as basis for an ACGM, and I don't think it's "anti-Leaf bias" for fans of a team sending out a package to maybe not want to part with that many pieces at once.
13 févr. à 15 h 18
#31
Banni
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
"Boat loads of stuff" is an extremely subjective term. A lot of folks would say that a package bigger than what Jack Eichel got would qualify as "boat loads of stuff".

I think the problem with people valuing a guy like Marner is there's an extremely limited history of comps to look at. Trading a guy like TJ Brodie? Sure, I can probably point to a handful of trades in the past few years that would make sense as comparisons. But, like you said, Marner is an immense talent and guys like that never get traded so people around here have no idea what to do with him.

The best comp in "recent" history I can find is Ilya Kovalchuk - he was 26, he was a 90 point scorer, and he was making money that was fairly equivalent to what Marner makes now (when it was signed in 2005-06, Kovalchuk's $6.4M AAV counted as 16.4% of the $39M salary cap while Marner's $10.9M cap hit was 13.4% of the $81.5M cap when he signed; Kovalchuk's contract was worth 11.3% of the cap when it was at the same point as Marner's deal is now and it costs 13.1%). Marner is a better defender, but I'd say Kovalchuk gets some of that value back by being a better goalscorer than Marner is - and like I said, we've got limited history to work with, and this is the closest we're gonna get comp wise.

The Kovalchuk trade had the Thrashers sending him, a 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft, and Anssi Salmela (6th/7th D type) to the Devils for a 1st & 2nd in the upcoming draft, Patrice Cormier (recent 2nd round pick in the midst of a PPG season in the QMJHL), Johnny Oduya (strong two-way defender getting 20+ minutes a night in his 3rd NHL season), & Niclas Bergfors (former 1st round pick, 22 y/o, scoring at a 40 point pace as a middle-6 winger)

The pick values wound up being #38 going to NJD for #24 & #54 - a difference in value more or less equivalent to a pick in the #30-32 range. So the best trade you can point to that actually happened that is comparable to a potential Marner trade brough back a late 1st, an established roster player in a middle-line/pair role, a prospect with NHL experience, and another B-tier prospect.

If I had to use that template to try and build a package that the Kings would send to the Leafs here, well we've got the 2024 1st. The established roster player in a middle-line/pair role would probably be someone like Adrian Kempe or Matt Roy, the younger prospect would be someone like Arthur Kaliyev or Jordan Spence, and the last slot would be someone like Sam Helenius I guess?

So which package is better:

Clarke + PLD + 1st + 2nd + 2nd

or

Kempe + Spence + Helenius + 1st

NHL GMs are cowards that hate setting precedent (one of the main reasons a Marner trade is something that only exists on message boards like this, tbh) and they're loathe to make a move that does not have something they can point back to as a comparison. If you don't think they'd look at trades like the Jack Eichel trade or this Ilya Kovalchuk trade when they're setting their values, I don't know what to tell you. I just don't think it's "anti-Leafs bias" to try and point to things that actually have happened in the real world as basis for an ACGM, and I don't think it's "anti-Leaf bias" for fans of a team sending out a package to maybe not want to part with that many pieces at once.


Eichel was coming off a really bad neck injury. Very bad example
13 févr. à 20 h 14
#32
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Quoting: RipNasty
Eichel was coming off a really bad neck injury. Very bad example


I mean, if you want to try and bring some comparable trades to the table to back it up, by all means go for it. But again: I know you've got a gimmick to uphold and acting like you know anything about hockey outside the greater Toronto area goes against it.
13 févr. à 22 h 6
#33
Banni
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
I mean, if you want to try and bring some comparable trades to the table to back it up, by all means go for it. But again: I know you've got a gimmick to uphold and acting like you know anything about hockey outside the greater Toronto area goes against it.


Tkachuk is a comparable trade but everyone will disagree, RFA vs UFA sure, but both are top 5 RW a year apart in age. Their values are still similar. Not the 50-70% less than Tkachuk you guys love to say isn't just self justification
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