This guy gets it. I think the conditions can be simplified a bit. This may sound silly but I’d t try a different prospect simply because he’s Finnish and we’ve had like 1 Finnish player in the org (DC and Hershey) in the last decade

Then don't upgrade on him until such a clear upgrade becomes available. You're just shedding assets for the sake of it at that point.

I would want corresponding picks coming back from Washington and full retention on Dowd if we're offering them a first. The 2024 4th and 2025 6th specifically. Dowd and Lindgren could probably be had for a pair of seconds and a minor piece, your offer exceeds that value even if Niemelainen and Pickard are just contracts going back to the Capitals.

I'm not much of a proponent for moving Lindgren or Dowd, but this trade would be near impossible to say no to. The conditions are a lot, so that could be simplified, but the picks as they are make it worth it for the caps imo.

I don't hate that deal for Walker, but I think the Flyers could likely do better

Im of the mind that dowd and Lindgren are two of the only caps that have significant trade value right now and I’d rather move them and maximize return if possible. This is not a playoff team. I would rather them try and pick up Broberg or bourgault instead of a late 1st

This was just to see what it would look like to move Ceci. IMO there isn't anyone really worth trading for in real life. Agree with your stance there.

Do you think Caps would want 2024 2nd + 2026 2nd to part with Dowd/Lindgren? Doubtful. Maybe if EDM is moving the 1st, they get Caps to retain on Dowd like you mentioned, to make things a bit easier next year. I still think WSH would ask for a 1st for both players, and from an EDM perspective that pick won't be helping for the next ~3 years so I say move it for players in positions of need, with good cap/term. Dowd/Lindgren fit that quite well imo. Maybe it's a different prospect than Niemo, and a lower pick than 3rd with less conditions, but to me this is pretty close to fair on both sides

They can ask for whatever they want on the market, it's a matter of whether or not they get it.

The noise surrounding Habs fans and Monahan absolutely fetching a first at the deadline led me to deep-dive what equivalent players went for last year. Rental #3C's go for a second round pick on average. Dowd wouldn't be a rental but he's also very much a #4C. Rental #4C's range from a 4th round pick to a pair of 5ths from what I could note. If I just double THAT value to account for Dowd having an extra season on the end of his deal, unretained one would be looking at something in the ballpark of a 3rd and a C-prospect. A second round pick covers the bill in full on a retained Dowd, or at the very least should and sentiment is clouding the judgment of those who would ask for excessively more than that. More or less why I would argue that Coleman and Goodrow are poor comparisons: those were top-nine pieces (when they were moved) with term. A second round pick and a crapshoot prospect is more than market enough.

Likewise, which team is objectively close enough to being a legitimate Stanley Cup contender to shed a first on their #4C? Boston and Colorado both want a top-six center, Florida and Dallas probably want a top LHD. Edmonton has need for a 1B goaltender, legitimate Ceci upgrade, and one could split hairs on whether or not they should prioritize a #2RW or #4C.

Lindgren will never fetch a first, term be damned. The only time first round picks are exchanged for goalers are when they happen to be incidental parts of a larger deal. I made it to the summer of 2015 before giving up on my search to find any goaltenders that had been directly traded for a first round pick at the deadline and could only find Fleury for a conditional first. Besides that, the closest we get to this is Kuemper four days following the 2021 draft. Lindgren has been a good piece for the Caps this year but doesn't come with the name power that Fleury did nor does he have the resume.

Realistically the only thing that would dissuade Washington from taking the 2024 and 2026 Oilers' seconds is having to wait until 2026 to collect on the second pick.

I'll clarify: I don't necessarily hate using the 2024 1st but my priority for that pick is to upgrade on Ceci. If that cannot happen I don't mind using it plus the 2025 3rd to acquire both Dowd and Lindgren, I just want full value for that trade. A first and a third, plus whatever minor prospect is sent out, far exceeds that ballpark pair of seconds mark, even if we're looking at retention on Dowd. Hence my ask of late picks offset by the same range that Edmonton's picks would be offset by.

Ceci isn't a cap dump though. If you think he is then you haven't been paying attention.

Walker is having a good season so far but on a contender he's a 3rd pairing guy who isn't great defensively. There's no way Edmonton would want him in the top-4. He's a right-handed Brett Kulak.

Yep that's all very fair; good assessment. As EDM I'd obviously much rather trade the 2nds. Just trying to see it from a WSH perspective, and whether they decide if their price isn't met this year that they just hold onto the players.

My priority for the team would be a Ceci upgrade but I just don't see one out there. Unless you could somehow get Larsson back, or get someone like Pulock/Weegar/Marino/Zub, I wouldn't be spending much for a UFA upgrade. With Perry coming in, Holloway looking good, McLeod/Foegele producing, and hopefully Kane getting healthy and producing again, I feel like 4C > 2RW at the moment. Especially one with Dowd's defensive prowess. Grab a 1B with him in the same trade and you're basically set. Maybe both 2nds + whichever C-ish level prospect is enough to get you there.

I never said Ceci was a dump; I have been looking at players out there and I really don't see a viable upgrade that is worth spending on. I agree Walker probably doesn't make sense, but he has similar defensive metrics to Ceci this year, with better offensive ones. But if Ceci can stabilize a bit, I would be comfortable going into playoffs with changing the D core. This trade is a bad example, I was mostly just curious to see what the team would look like if you swapped Ceci out.