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An argument supporting Monahans value

Créé par: KentMcNally
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 20 janv. 2024
Publié: 20 janv. 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Monahan is on pace for 51 points this year. That production comes from playing 2nd line center for Montreal, which has a very tough time scoring. He is not playing with high end 2nd line talent. If he had more talented linemates it is not unreasonable to assume he could have had a 60 point season this year (only 9 more points than his current pace).

I believe that 50 to 60 points is decent #2 center production for a good playoff team.

Last season Carolina was a good team and went into the playoffs with Kotkaniemi as the 2nd highest scoring center with 43 points. Carolina was viewed as a team with a shot at going deep in the playoff.

Colorado went into the playoffs with J.T. Compher as their 2nd line center with 52 points. Colorado was viewed as a contender.

Boston's first line center was Bergeron with 59 points. Boston was a contender.

Dallas had Domi at #2 center. He had 56 points.

The Rangers had Trochek, who finished with 64 points (close to what Monahan could probably do with better linemates).

Florida went to the Cup finals with Sam Bennett as their #2 centre. He had 40 points.
Vegas won the Cup with their 2 centres (Stephenson and Karlsson --after Eichel) having 65 and 53 points -- again achievable numbers for Monahan if he had better linemates.

So far Monhaan has 28 points in Montreal. Meanwhile, Carolina, Boston, Colorado and Winnipeg (all top 10 teams in the league) have #2 centres who have fewer points than Monahan. Monahan is also good on faceoffs. If the contending teams want to try to load up and make a Cup run they need to sacrifice something in a trade.

In the end, it appears there is a strong argument (not necessarily an iron-clad argument) to be made that Monahan could be a 2nd line centre option for a team that is a contending playoff team. The numbers add up.

Any team that drops a first round pick for him has to assume they will make the playoffs and win at least 1 round, which would put their first round pick at #25 overall at best (in a draft that I have not seen described as particularly deep). Therefore, giving up a first round pick for a team that wants to go deep in the playoffs should not be viewed as a tremendous sacrifice.

If the Habs do get that pick in the 25 to 32 range I think they should use that in an off season trade package to either move up in the draft (depending on where they land in the lottery) or trade for a young prospect (i.e. pick #25 + Jordan Harris + Owen Beck for "something").

Just my thoughts.
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        20 janv. à 21 h 3
        #51
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        Quoting: KentMcNally
        But if you put him on a better team his 5 on 5 numbers improve too, He has played well 5 on 5 this year, he just does not have a lot of help.

        Also, I would argue that the defensive metrics can be used many different ways. I could argue that your 2nd line players are not out on the ice for goal prevention. They are there for secondary offense to support the 1st line. I am not saying goal prevention is not important, but it can be something that you expect more so from your third and fourth lines.

        As has been stated above, playoff bound teams also have to consider that there are not that many centers available that can play up and down the lineup like Monahan can.

        Merkulov and a 2nd would probably work if Boston would do it.


        Yet you compared him to Bergeron who may be the best defensive foward of the last 1/4 century
        20 janv. à 21 h 7
        #52
        Banni
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        Quoting: KentMcNally
        I would not get too worried about the fact that every day you see “Monahan to Colorado for a first rounder” trade proposal. Trade proposals happen to every team that some fans don’t like. As you know, it is not going to stop until the deadline is over. The trades usually are meant to start a discussion and not to aggravate a specific fan base (except the true troll posts that people put up that are ridiculous).


        This should be used as a brain storming site. Most trade suggestions won’t happen but it’s very easy to be critical and feel tall without giving anything other than platitudes instead of a hypothesis.
        It’s cowardly and boring. Then again most posters here are sheep that still get a few low percentage trade rejections dead wrong. My favourite might have been Zadorov for Saad. It was suggested here. The toxicity from hawks fans was off the charts and yet it happened!
        Maybe try to see the other side instead of saying this player is worth such and such and nothing else will be accepted. Because trading isn’t about compromise where both sides feel a tad unsatisfied, amirite?!?
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        21 janv. à 7 h 59
        #53
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        Quoting: Justafan79
        Yet you compared him to Bergeron who may be the best defensive foward of the last 1/4 century


        I just meant as far as points production he was close to what Boston got from its number one center.

        If you look at one of my later comments I acknowledge that Monahan is not the same class as Bergeron.

        Bergeron is a Hall of Famer without a doubt. Monahan is not.
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        21 janv. à 8 h 25
        #54
        Banni
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        Quoting: KentMcNally
        I just meant as far as points production he was close to what Boston got from its number one center.

        If you look at one of my later comments I acknowledge that Monahan is not the same class as Bergeron.

        Bergeron is a Hall of Famer without a doubt. Monahan is not.


        I swear there are a few posters that just go around with gotchas and never entertain any offer at any price, they might be more annoying than the trolls that post ACGMs for attn.
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        21 janv. à 11 h 42
        #55
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        Quoting: Andy_Dick
        This should be used as a brain storming site. Most trade suggestions won’t happen but it’s very easy to be critical and feel tall without giving anything other than platitudes instead of a hypothesis.
        It’s cowardly and boring. Then again most posters here are sheep that still get a few low percentage trade rejections dead wrong. My favourite might have been Zadorov for Saad. It was suggested here. The toxicity from hawks fans was off the charts and yet it happened!
        Maybe try to see the other side instead of saying this player is worth such and such and nothing else will be accepted. Because trading isn’t about compromise where both sides feel a tad unsatisfied, amirite?!?


        This entire thread is doing exactly that: multiple fanbases discussing why they believe Monahan is not a viable option for their team. There are 50+ posts driving that conversation.

        Moving forward, can we agree to just link back to this thread as an FAQ on why the incessant Monahan ACGMs are not desired?
        21 janv. à 11 h 54
        #56
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        Quoting: turtlemountain
        This entire thread is doing exactly that: multiple fanbases discussing why they believe Monahan is not a viable option for their team. There are 50+ posts driving that conversation.

        Moving forward, can we agree to just link back to this thread as an FAQ on why the incessant Monahan ACGMs are not desired?


        Are you saying that there should not be any more posts about Monahan being traded? I think if you look at any trade bait list by any insiders he is near the top, so it is expected that he will be talked about quite a bit by the fans (unless I have missed your point).
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        21 janv. à 12 h 29
        #57
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        Quoting: KentMcNally
        Are you saying that there should not be any more posts about Monahan being traded? I think if you look at any trade bait list by any insiders he is near the top, so it is expected that he will be talked about quite a bit by the fans (unless I have missed your point).


        No, not at all! I think that this has been a good discussion.

        I’m saying that when inevitably this gets posted a ton today, instead of explaining every damn time why there would be pushback on Monahan for a kings ransom for a team where he’s an unclear fit, we can just link this.

        Also, shoutout to you for being pleasant in this thread. There’s some insufferable fans here, but I appreciate when folks are actually willing to engage.
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        21 janv. à 12 h 48
        #58
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        Quoting: turtlemountain
        No, not at all! I think that this has been a good discussion.

        I’m saying that when inevitably this gets posted a ton today, instead of explaining every damn time why there would be pushback on Monahan for a kings ransom for a team where he’s an unclear fit, we can just link this.

        Also, shoutout to you for being pleasant in this thread. There’s some insufferable fans here, but I appreciate when folks are actually willing to engage.


        Out of curiosity, who do you think are the 3 players that Colorado has at the top of their wish list?
        I gotta think Lindholm might be #1, but I don’t know. Someone to back up Georgiev??
        21 janv. à 12 h 52
        #59
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        Quoting: KentMcNally
        Out of curiosity, who do you think are the 3 players that Colorado has at the top of their wish list?
        I gotta think Lindholm might be #1, but I don’t know. Someone to back up Georgiev??


        Lindholm would be a good fit.

        A solid backup to share the workload down the stretch. Allen would be interesting, but likely would need retention because of next year’s deal. I think a team like the Kings might pay for him to start.

        A 4C to pk and take face offs would be nice too. Nothing sexy but you can generally get those relatively cheap
        21 janv. à 13 h 1
        #60
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        Quoting: turtlemountain
        Lindholm would be a good fit.

        A solid backup to share the workload down the stretch. Allen would be interesting, but likely would need retention because of next year’s deal. I think a team like the Kings might pay for him to start.

        A 4C to pk and take face offs would be nice too. Nothing sexy but you can generally get those relatively cheap


        An Allen trade is tricky. Is good for a playoff team as a backup who could possibly step in if the starter falters in a series, but the retention is the big issue. Montreal wont’t want to pay too much for a super late round pick, but he only has so much value. In my opinion if Montreal could get a 4th or 5th without retention that would be ok. If they get a second (unlikely) or third with retention (like 35%) that might be in the right range.
        Like I said, trading him is tricky (value-wise) for both sides.
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        22 janv. à 12 h 44
        #61
        Banni
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        "This season, Monahan ranks 38th among all NHL forwards in completed passes at even-strength, according to SportLOGiQ. He has the seventh highest faceoff win percentage (56.9 percent), which is fifth among left-shooting centers, and he is the best at winning draws on the penalty kill (55.9 percent) – among centers with at least 600 faceoffs taken."

        "According to NHL EDGE, Monahan is in the 95th percentile in high-danger shots on goal this season."

        "Monahan is actually on track to collect more points than than former teammate Elias Lindholm this season – and is expected to be available at a lower price point by comparison. Why is that?"

        Best of all..

        "One of the huge plusses for Monahan is that every team in the league, even the most cap crunched, can afford him. They might be able to add multiple pieces if the Canadiens are willing to retain half his salary to pump up the return. There’s no reason to think they wouldn’t facilitate that. The bottom line is the Habs should be looking for another late first-round pick to add to their arsenal – which is an incredible swing for GM Kent Hughes, considering the Calgary Flames already gave them one to take Monahan off their hands in a salary cap dump."


        Why @frank_seravalli breaks down a player whose faceoff prowess and worth ethic outweigh the injury concerns as a target for a contender's middle six.STORY:https://t.co/5wdqBsW9rl

        — Daily Faceoff (@DailyFaceoff) January 22, 2024

        Monahan worth the risk!

        Comparable Trade Returns
        March 21, 2022
        To NY Rangers: Andrew Copp, 2023 6th Rd Pick
        To Winnipeg: Conditional 2022 1st Rd Pick (No. 30 overall), 2022 2nd Rd Pick, 2023 5th Rd Pick, Morgan Barron

        Feb. 24, 2020
        To Tampa Bay: Barclay Goodrow, 2020 3rd Rd Pick
        To San Jose: 2020 1st Rd Pick (No. 31 overall), Anthony Greco

        Feb. 26, 2018
        To Winnipeg: Paul Stastny (50% retained)
        To St. Louis: 2018 1st Rd Pick (No. 29 overall), 2020 4th Rd Pick, rights to Erik Foley


        Seravalli might actually be lurking here. lmao
        It’s almost like the unbiased have a point when compared to the same dozen trolls that like to congregate and be tribalist ghouls en masse.
        22 janv. à 13 h 7
        #62
        Banni
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        Quoting: SupremeBone
        No, you seem to be arguing against your own misinterpretation. My point was that his current numbers were achieved under a condition that he very likely wouldn't be in on a contending team and, as such, an argument formed on the basis of his offensive production alone will be weak to counters. Mine was a critique of the strength of his argument more than a critique of his conclusion. I address his conclusion in a separate paragraph.


        Gaslighting.
        Not sure how I missed this one!

        You are also arguing a distinct position without taking in the whole picture. Saying Monahan wont necessarily be given PP1 elsewhere and that could mean his point totals go down is only true in a vacuum.

        That is the fault in your argument as you completely dismiss the fact that he plays with lesser linemates at 5v5 in Evans, Armia, Gallagher.
        You are masking every benefit that goes to a contender and are simply focused on the negatives. You'd probably find fault in McDavid's defensive metrics if he was traded going by your own misinterpretations. Your arguments are simply you going in circles over and over trying to find a red herring that isnt how to argue but how to gaslight to a T.
        22 janv. à 14 h 40
        #63
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        Quoting: Andy_Dick
        Gaslighting.
        Not sure how I missed this one!

        You are also arguing a distinct position without taking in the whole picture. Saying Monahan wont necessarily be given PP1 elsewhere and that could mean his point totals go down is only true in a vacuum.

        That is the fault in your argument as you completely dismiss the fact that he plays with lesser linemates at 5v5 in Evans, Armia, Gallagher.
        You are masking every benefit that goes to a contender and are simply focused on the negatives. You'd probably find fault in McDavid's defensive metrics if he was traded going by your own misinterpretations. Your arguments are simply you going in circles over and over trying to find a red herring that isnt how to argue but how to gaslight to a T.

        Let me start off by saying that I think trying to psychologise this by tying it in with a loaded word like "gaslighting" is both unwise and unproductive but, given your manner of writing, I'll assume good faith on your part and respond in kind. Since you've gone so far as to call out my character through your assertion that I'm gaslighting, I feel the need to address this. My original comment was as follows:

        "I think your argument comes up lacking in light of two details: 1.) it's based solely on offensive production meaning it comes up short when you try to compare him to Bergeron or even Compher (not saying Monahan is useless defensively, just that he isn't a particularly strong two-way C) and 2.) Monahan plays almost exclusively on PP1, which is something he wouldn't do on most contending teams (further hurting your argument based on offensive production). You may have more dimensions you could use to support your belief but, as it's laid out here, it's lacking.

        I'm not saying it's impossible that he returns a 1st but I know that's a price I wouldn't pay- in general or for my team (EDM). If a team does, I imagine it'll be conditional based on that team reaching the conf. finals."


        This is a comment that clearly states that his argument as presented comes up lacking and that, if he wants to make the case more clearly & convincingly, he should lay out a more comprehensive case as to why. In the second paragraph, I lay out my opinion on the matter of Monahan's trade value without having directly tried to substantiate it myself because, unlike the initial poster of this AGM, I didn't set out to try to convince others of my opinion on Monahan's value (hence his title "An argument supporting..."). To which the response was from a 3rd party saying:

        "Your argument is flawed. We shouldn't consider his PP production because he wouldn't necessarily be on PP1?.... that makes no sense, "Let's not consider him as a PP option", but all teams want when they trade at the deadline are more options on the special teams. They're not going to trade for guys who can't provide on special teams.

        I think it's Hands Down a given Habs get a 1st rounder. I don't even think it's enough to be fair."


        Unless you'd like to point out to me the place at which I stated that "we shouldn't consider his PP production", I think you ought to be able to see how I'd consider this is a clear misinterpretation of what I said. Following this, I dare to commit the foul act of "gaslighting" (I restate: a term I think you're using entirely too liberally) by saying:

        "No, you seem to be arguing against your own misinterpretation. My point was that his current numbers were achieved under a condition that he very likely wouldn't be in on a contending team and, as such, an argument formed on the basis of his offensive production alone will be weak to counters. Mine was a critique of the strength of his argument more than a critique of his conclusion. I address his conclusion in a separate paragraph."

        To which one could counter as you did that his quality of linemate would also improve and, as such, could lead to an increase in 5-on-5 production. Your underlying assertion and that of the guy you claim I "gaslit" is that I failed to make a comprehensive argument to the contrary which presupposes that I intended to make such in the first place. That wasn't my intent. My only aim was to point out ways in which the OP's argument was unconvincing within their own evaluative framework (almost entirely focused on offense). The line where I say "You may have more dimensions you could use to support your belief but, as it's laid out here, it's lacking." should be evidence of this fact.

        It may be fair to critique me by saying that if you're suggesting someone make a more comprehensive argument then you should make one yourself, but that critique would fall short in my opinion as, again, it's he who has the vested interest in trying to make a convincing argument, not me. I'm merely trying to offer feedback on a couple clear points of weakness in his argument that I identified in a cursory reading of it.
        22 janv. à 14 h 56
        #64
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        Quoting: SupremeBone
        Let me start off by saying that I think trying to psychologise this by tying it in with a loaded word like "gaslighting" is both unwise and unproductive but, given your manner of writing, I'll assume good faith on your part and respond in kind. Since you've gone so far as to call out my character through your assertion that I'm gaslighting, I feel the need to address this. My original comment was as follows...


        Your patience is commendable here lol. It looks like the mods swept away some of the name calling in this thread by the poster you replied to. I think you laid out your point pretty clearly.
        22 janv. à 15 h 6
        #65
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        Modifié 22 janv. à 15 h 15
        Quoting: turtlemountain
        Your patience is commendable here lol. It looks like the mods swept away some of the name calling in this thread by the poster you replied to. I think you laid out your point pretty clearly.

        Haha thanks! I didn't even see the rest of what he posted so perhaps assuming good faith was wrong on my part. In any case, I'm probably more sensitive to insinuations of bad character or bad faith than I ought to be when it comes to random internet strangers and I had the time so tears of joy
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