Few things to note:

1. Parayko is still RFA at the end of the 1 year deal, and he's the Leafs' property.

2. The $12m is 6m salary and 6m signing bonus. Baseline salary for the extension, therefore, is only 6m.

3. Leafs will re-sign him to $7m x 7yrs during the season.

If you put an offer sheet down on Parayko right now, don't you think there will be retaliation from st louis? They will put you in cap hell if they put an offer sheet on Marner, Matthews or Nylander. Offer sheets don't happen that often in the nhl, as they are an unspoken rule between gm's to not put down offer sheets. Philly put an offersheet on Weber back in the day, and have Philly and Nashville made a trade since? It's a ***** move.

What' makes he think the Leafs resign him at 7m X 7. Why would Parayko agree? He owes the Leafs nothing after the one year deal.

Parayko's a good player, but TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS? I disagree.

@taha_ahmed7 -- The reason GMs typically don't do it is too keep costs down -- it's a form of collusion. The idea that the offer sheet spoils cherished GM relationships and makes it impossible to makes trades is a myth (and, with a 74 year old GM, an irrelevant one). See: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/5/15733788/toronto-maple-leafs-colton-parayko-do-offer-sheets-really-provoke-retaliation

@palhal -- Parayko is supposedly looking for something in the $7m range, and STL is trying to keep him under $6m. $7mx7 isn't a 'pay cut' but more or less his market value and a raise on the 6m salary I proposed. What does he "owe" the Leafs? Nothing, I guess. Except they hold his rights, and if some team tries to offer sheet him for a crazy amount of money, we can collect the picks. Which will almost certainly be higher in the draft than those the Leafs gave up (the only real "contenders" that are much better don't have cap space, so if Vancouver wants to.... well, ok? We'll draft the 2018 version of Seguin or whatever).

@rangersandislesfan -- Think of it as $6m in salary (what *he* is worth) and $6m as a "finder's fee" and so you don't have to give up assets like Marner or Nylander (acquisition cost). I'd rather sign a Parayko-calibre defenseman for $6m and pay another $6m (that the Leafs have) than have him cost $6m and an asset like Nylander.

As for the 'actual' acquisition cost, those four 1st rounders... well, draft shmaft. The Leafs have drafted 3 guys in the top 5 (Rielly, Marner, Matthews), 2 who were slated to go top 5 before bad-luck draft years (Nylander and Liljegren), another in top 10 (Kadri), and traded for another who was ranked top-10 before his mediocre draft year (Kapanen). They're loaded on high end skill. They neither need more pieces like that (have most in the league) nor will they be in a position to draft them (they'll be picking #24-30 for next 5 years, I'm sure).

I like the attention to detail and gutsiness to tread new ground; Parayko is an RFA until summer 2020.
Leafs would protect themselves by extending any RFAs beforehand, and retaliation by the Blues would backfire if they overpay for any player and Toronto prefers the draft picks.

It's a total gamble Parayko signs an extension with the Leafs.
If he chooses to sign the 1 year offer-sheet, he'll be willing to sign another offer-sheet. The $7 million is good for the 2 years of RFA, but covers 5 years of UFA status and Parayko's best years at a big discount to market price. Granted the Leafs could elect to match any offer-sheet, but they better be ready going in to trade away anyone not named Matthews in order to make space.


Also, the Blues can easily match a $12 million offer sheet by trading Berglund for picks+prospects. Max salary is 20% of 75, so $15 million this year.
Even if there's a good chance the Blues match, I wouldn't mind the resulting chaos for entertainment.

It's a longshot. I thought the Leafs were patiently waiting for hometown Tavares to be UFA next summer, but the 3 years of Marleau has me doubting even that.

STL offering $7x7y : 3 RFA years + 4 UFA years
TOR offering next year $7x7y : 2 RFA years + 5 UFA years

If an RFA year = $3 million, UFA year = $10 million
7y today = $49 million
7y next year = $56 million

I'm not trying to discourage the idea, but this is the math considered behind the headline numbers. Would you still be up for the gambit at a $8 million x 7 extension that finishes when Parayko is age 32/33 in the 2025-2026 season?

Hmmm. I hadn't quite realized how close 2020 and his UFA years were.

Paying for 5 UFA years at a pricey, but still reasonable, RFA rate is likely a no go from the player's side. So, the mega-extension was optimistic.

Would I be willing to pay for his last 2 RFA years and 2-3 of his UFA ones at $7-7.5m, after which he can chase a $9m or whatever per year elsewhere? Even at the cost of 4 1st rounders, yes. That's 5 or 6 years with a legit top-pairing guy, which the Leafs don't currently have. And, if they were to get that, I think Leafs would be favorites to come out of the East for as long as Parayko and the rest are held together and healthy.

But the difference between $7 and $8 per year doesn't really bother me. I'm expecting the Leafs will keep Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Rielly around long term (Liljegren if he pans out -- still 4-5 years before that has real cap implications) and be pretty ruthless about moving out sentimental favorites (everyone else... ) for picks/prospects and working in cost-effective replacements -- from the prospect pipeline ideally. So, i'm expecting they'd be tying up about half their cap up in a 5 skater core by 2019-20 (Matthews @ 12m, Marner @ 8m, Nylander @ 8m, Rielly still @ 5m, Parayko @ 7.5 = ~41m in 2019-20).

so bad... u cant cherry pick a teams RFA when you have 2 RFAs more important than the guy u just signed coming up the next yr

Yes, you can.

IF you move out the less important guys for picks/prospects, have a decent prospect pipeline that can graduate half decent replacements, and have LTIR relief (thank you, Clarkson), you absolutely can.

See: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/404764

And that's without even disappearing a 40yo Marleau or sending him back to SJS --even in a retained salary transaction -- to make one last Cup run and retire (I think odds are decent he'll already have one by then)