Hawks will want more than a 2nd to take Ceci

Based on what? They took on Bailey for a 2nd who made twice as much as Ceci.

Bailey's buyout cost them $2.6m and was due $3.5 in actual salary before the buyout. Plus it was only a 1 year deal.

Ceci has $8m in salary and has an additional year on his deal. Because of that, the price is higher to take Ceci.

A 2024 2nd would be top 40 this year. Baileys pick is in 2026. The season is a quarter of the way over. Players get paid as the season goes on.
Ceci has just next year on his deal. Bailey had one season left. That info is on this site
Baileys last season base salary was $3.5 million and Ceci’s is the same

Ok so Ceci is still owed, ~$7m, which is still twice what Bailey was owed. Again, this is why it will cost more to dump Ceci now than it did to dump Bailey.

getting Zub would definitely cost at least a 1st, but the Sens just can't afford to lose him. he's just way too important to the defensive side of the team

Sens need Zub just as much as the Oilers do, they're not trading him

That 1st is in the lottery right now so that makes it enticing but a pretty big risk for both teams

And Ceci has pretty decent advanced stats in Edmonton, I don't think he's the problem

Adding Zub and keeping Ceci would actually be better. They should move a guy like Kane instead

Ceci is 55% xGF on ice and the oilers are 55% with him off ice. His D and O starts are the same. He isn’t a cap dump to begin with and the fact you think he is shows how little you know

Ottawa isn't trading Zub, the Oilers should be trying to acquire Maata.