Never over a PPG in any of his previous years.

15 assists away (which would still be him producing more on his oppurtunities than haula did) would have him at 87 compared to hughes 99 (in less games), in a division without good goalies. Thats a large offensive gap.

Hughes is a 100+ caliber offensive player.
Pettersson is a mid 80s caliber player.

That's how I view them and I think that outweighs the defensive difference

It doesn’t because the defensive differences is more significant. Pettersson plays in the best offensively gifted division with the best player in the league and the puts up significantly better defensive metrics

I don’t think this take is gonna age all that well.

this is why I used 3 year weights

FWIW, WAR and points don't correlate / quite as/ strongly as you'd think (but in this case they obviously would. this is more of an aside). See: Stone, Mark; Bergeron, Patrice

I think I addressed this elsewhere but it almost certainly would address the difference. 100th percentile for EVD was 9.1 GAR. 100th percentile for EVO was 25.6 GAR.

Offense is much more valuable than defense in the NHL (imo, anyway. I think the models have the right of it on that, to a large extent)

Yeah I don't agree here. I'm not sure Petey is a perennial 100 point player (there's basically only 3 or 4guys in the league I would put money on scoring 100 points), but I don't think he's mid-80's either. Low 90's.

(though, back of the envelope calculations would set jack's O/U points next year at like 84.5 so do with that what you will)

Nobody is guaranteed 100 points except McDavid. Scoring is going up though so it’s very possible they it becomes the new normal

using jack hughes 19 year old season is ridiculous. Pettersson wasn't even playing nhl hockey at that age

Low 90s for a guy with 1 ppg season

I don't think it's ridiculous. He also had a very strong season that year.and it's not about who was better at the same age. it's who is better right now

Jack Hughes at age 19 is irrelevant to who's better now. Pettersson has a large sample size of below PPG play before his linemates began shooting 30%

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here. If 3 years ago is irrelevant, then so is Pettersson's previous sub-ppg sample.

You're functionally just using a two year weight for jack and some arbitrary set of parameters for Pettersson.

This is why 3 year weights are good because it smooths over things like high OISH%.

Jack Hughes 19 year old sample size is meaningless because he was a TEENAGER. Again to put into perspective pettersson wasn't an NHLer at that age.

Meanwhile pettersson's age 20, 21, 22, and 23 seasons are a valid sample size to compare to jack hughes age 20 and 21 seasons. Pettersson cracked a ppg for the 1st time at age 24 when he had 30 assists to 2 guys shooting the highest % we've seen since 1990, in a division with god awful goaltenders. He needs to prove it again

right but we arent comparing who was better at 19. we are talking about who is best now. so we should apply the same criteria, however you want to measure it.

jack was obviously better younger. but that's not what we're talking about. when you want to know if crosby or mcdavid is better *right now* you don't compare mcdavid to crosby in 2013, yaknow?

Pettersson had a year at 24 that could very well be an anomaly fueled by the ridiculous shooting%s ive mentioned. Jack already has 2 ppg+ seasons under his belt at 21. Pettersson needs to prove it wasn't a fluke

1 and a half. If we compare last 120 games, they are about the same. Pettersson had better production in the 2nd half of last season after his wrist was fully healed. It wasn't a 1 year anomaly, this kind of play has been going on since last season

that's a completely reasonable argument