Depends on term. If he only wants a couple years, he is definitely getting 9+ AAV. But at age 29, his AAV will be lower than that on a 8 year deal. 7-8M AAV would be pretty good for a guy signing until age 37.

i don't know if that is true - both players probably have a ceiling of being a 5D; there are plenty of those available via UFA. But, there is plenty of truth to them possibly closing their window sooner than it should if they don't get at least a few of their prospects to the NHL; those cheap contracts mean a lot to a cap team. Lots of people think the cap going up means there will be more money available for more and better players but it just means players are going to ask for more money, especially since they've been losing so much money in escrow for years now.

I've heard $9-10M for Nylander as his ask. Toews probably can't get that much at his age but, then again, Petro got $8.8 (with term and full movement protection) when he was 29-30 so...

9 is apparently what the Leafs are offering but they are far apart. It could be the term or the actual number but if they can’t figure it out by August he needs to be traded to another contender for another expiring contract.

Petro's AAV is where I'd cap Toews on a 7-8 year deal. Petro was coming off 4 strait seasons of 13+ goals where Toews has been over 10 once. Petro also has the added bonus of being a right shot.

Petro (and hall for that matter) was expected to get 10 plus then the pandemic came and the cap that was expected to rise suddenly went flat throwing off signings.

More importantly defenseman aren't signed based purely (or even mostly) on their goal scoring. Over the last 3 years he's 14th on goals, 21st in points, and 8th for TOI.

The guys who have signed deals recently include a bunch of RFA's (Heiskanen, McAvoy), and older UFAs (Letang). The best comparisons are likely Jones, Werenski, Josi, and Pietro.

Yes defensemen get paid for more than just offense. But go look through the big time D contracts (8.5M+). 8 of the 11 making 8.5M+ are right handed. Teams pay a premium for RD. Going through the lefties, Werenski signed at age 24. Nurse signed at age 26. Josi is the only one that signed a contract that started in his age 30 season. Josi was also coming off 5 strait years that were as good or better than the last 2 from Toews.

Based on age and performance, Toews is looking at a max of 8x9 but should come in lower than that.

EDIT: A better comparison in terms of quality of player and recent signing is Morgan Rielly. Similar production. Both are in the conversation of top 15-20 defensemen in the league. Both are lefties. Rielly signed an 8x7.5 starting at age 28. Toews is the better player, but is also older. All this just to say I expect Toews to sign an 8x8 if he resigns with the Avs.

I would think, with all the guys the Leafs signed, they might be inclined to just let it ride so they have the best possible shot at winning a Cup or, you know, making it past the 2nd round. But I have heard it suggested that Pesce for Nylander could be a win-win for both teams and I tend to agree so, we'll see where it goes.

Pesce for Nylander makes so much more sense than Toews. Canes have a very good D core and could afford to trade away Pesce. Especially if they are still going to get Tony D. And they have the cap flexibility to resign Nylander next summer if they want to.

I agree it makes more sense but, if the Avs can't re-sign Toews (or he asks for more than they should pay him), they should consider it because Nylander is a legit scorer; he'd be far better than Drouin, even for just a year and, if they're losing Toews anyhow, I'd prefer to see them boost their scoring although they would then have to plug a hole on the blueline. But maybe if there is a Pesce-Nylander deal, Tank signs with the Avs. I just want to see the Avs increase their scoring and Drouin ain't it.

I'm all for moving Toews if the extension talks don't go in a direction that helps the Avs. But I think there are better fits than Nylander in that situation. I would much rather trade for a guy that can help for more than 1 year even if they aren't as skilled as Nylander. I'd rather get a lower end Top 6 forward that can help for 5-6 years than a guy that is asking for 10+ starting next summer. Thinking more along the lines of Terry or similar caliber/age player that can be extended for 7-8M similar to what we are hoping Toews extends for.

I’d take that deal but Carolina is tough to deal with when it comes to trades.

If they're making room on the blueline and getting a high-end scorer - something they desperately need - that could move the needle for them