I don't WANT Toronto to trade Nylander, but I suspect that Toronto may have no choice due to his ask and his agent. Treliving won't want to get burned again like he did with Johnny Hockey.
***IGNORE THE MURRAY BUYOUT, CONSIDER HIM REMOVED FROM THE TRADE. I FORGOT THAT THE SECOND WINDOW ONLY WORKS FOR THEIR TEAM AS OF THE LAST TDL*** (My bad.)
I would assume any Nylander deal will:
1. Include an extension with the team that acquires him, possibly a sign and trade.
2. Would have to be to one of the 22 teams he can be traded to (this is obvious)
3. Treliving would likely be looking for one of those standard "3 piece" returns - pick(s), young player/prospect, roster player
4. The pick would be a 2nd or 1st (depending on the quality of the young player/prospect)
5. The young player/prospect would likely be a centre due to the lack of depth TOR has long term at that position
6. The roster player would likely be a "nasty" defensemen (solid D, minute muncher, throws hits, hard to play against)
7. The acquiring team would need to be either a contender or a playoff team looking to move into the contender realm
8. The acquiring team will need cap moving forward to accommodate the extension
9. The acquiring team will need a good centre for Nylander to play with
10. Ideally Treliving uses the same trade to send out the Murray contract (the acquiring team can buy him out)
The best match I see here, assuming they are not on Nylander's NTC, would be Seattle.
In the trade I have Nylander going to SEA with an 8-year extension at 9-9.5M per season. The extra year allows them to get his number below 10. Nylander gives them scoring punch, more puck possession, great zone entries, improves their powerplay significantly, and provides a perfect line mate for Beniers. With Eberle coming off their cap next season and the incoming cap bump, accommodating Nylander's contract shouldn't be an issue for them. Murray would be bought out by Seattle this summer with a small cap penalty this season and about 2M next season. If taking Murray is a no-go from SEA, then the Leafs likely find another way to move him for cap (they could always just start him every preseason game until he gets injured again and send him to LTIR) but would likely ask for a 1st round pick instead of the 2nd.
Toronto gets back the prospect/young player in Shane Wright, who fell to SEA in the 22 Draft and hasn't impressed much *yet* for a projected #1 pick but has huge potential still, likely as a 2C down the road. Toronto could slide him into the Tavares role in 2 years after his contract expires. Plus, who doesn't want to see him play against Montreal 5 or 6 times a year? I included a 2nd to Toronto as the pick return but given Wright's high value, I tried to balance it by sending a 3rd back Seattle's way. Finally, I have Oleksiak coming home to Toronto to provide that "nasty" D man that is no fun to play against and slotted him in as Klingberg's steady/reliable D partner. He also injects more toughness into the lineup allowing the Leafs the option to not play Reaves against teams where his impact is lessened (softer teams) but still have a deterrent in the lineup. (#caveman, I know)
The Leafs lineup is solid, but they will miss Nylander without a doubt. They would be counting on Domi, Bertuzzi, Knies, Robertson, and a more productive year from Matthews to try and make up for the loss of Nylander's offense combined with the others they lost to FA (e.g., Bunting). With the moves, they do create a situation where they can actually have a full 23-man roster for the first time in a long time which should help push the bottom-6 and 3rd pair to perform. It will also allow more rotation of players in and out situationally and for rest during the season.
Muzzin goes on IR, helps ARZ with cap floor. His contract is insured and Toronto paid his 2M bonus on July 1. Leaves 2M of insured salary to add 5.625M to their fake cap. Can be moved to LTIR at any point if ARZ needs cap space.
Heh. The cost of taking Murray is more than a one round slide, man.
I would say it was meant to be part of the package, it isn't solely the 1 round slide on its own, not that there isn't an established precident for that in some respects - see Petr Mrázek. (less money owed and slightly lower cap hit mind you)
At any rate, I forgot that the acquiring team can't buy him out at this point, only the Leafs can (if say Samsonov files for arb), so consider him removed from the trade.