Quoting: Bast
On the other hand Ullmark had a sv% higher than .915 over the last 4 seasons with both Boston and Buffalo. That's pretty consistent in my book.
Since 2012 Markstrom has been a .920 goalie exactly once, last season! He has 2 seasons over .915 in that span. Gambling on Markstrom returning to form is a huge gamble, especially without knowing which system we're playing. What's far more likely is him being good in stretches, and average/bad in others. This season he didn't seem any better than Vladar, despite his improved play after his son was born.
The NMC definitely complicates matters. However, I think that Markstrom would entertain trades if he becomes the #2 goalie. Lindholm leaving might also play a part in him moving on.
Don't get me wrong, I think Ullmark is a solid goalie, however I think you vastly underappreciate Markstrom. I don't think him bouncing back is a big gamble at all, in fact it would be a gamble to bet he doesn't. He's only ever actually been a legitimate NHL starter since 17/18. He played 3 years as the starter in Vancouver where the team was still rebuilding and 1 year in the playoffs. In those 3 years he had a 5v5 SV% of .923%, .921%, and .925%. When you factor in how brutal that team was defensively in that 3 year span it shows even more. To get an idea, here was Vancouvers 17/18 D-core (in order of games played); Del Zotto, Pouliot, Edler, Stecher, Hutton, Gudbranson, Biega, Tanev. In 18/19 it was; Stecher, Hutton, Pouliot, Gudbranson, Edler, Tanev, Biega.
Hypothetically if Lindholm does leave/gets traded then yes i could see Markstrom waiving his NMC. However Lindholm leaving implies the team is going into at least a partial rebuild in which case Ullmark iks still not what the team needs.
As for him waiving otherwise, almost guaranteed not to happen, especially now that he's a father