not nearly enough.............

Disagree. I don't know if it's the right pieces, but it's absolutely fine as a package. UFAs never get full value. Gourde as a pending UFA is worth a 1st at the deadline. Burakovsky is a top 6 forward.

Toronto probably asks for a centerpiece like Shane Wright, but I doubt they would be in a position to get him. Most star UFAs get sold for pennies on the dollar, especially now that the rule change came into effect that makes a NMC travel with a player if they are traded before it kicks in.

I don't think Seattle has the right pieces, and it doesn't make sense for Toronto to trade Matthews for another pending UFA, but value wise, the package is unspectacular but fine.

Not enough for Matthews alone let alone Robertson to Leafs decline

In most cases you're right. But in this case you've got a 60 goal scorer, who will be 26 in his UFA year. Even in a down year (for him) he potted 40 and got 85 points. He's arguably a top 5 player in the league, but definitely top 10. The usual rules don't apply IMO.

You might be right, I am not discounting that as a possibility.

Karlsson was the last player of that calibre traded as a pending UFA. While there were concerns about his recovery from his injury, he also didn't have a NMC. He only had a 10 team no-trade list. So from a leverage POV, Matthews is going to be just as difficult to extract value from, because the team that acquires him will risk being put in a scenario where Matthews can say he wants to test the market AND he doesn't want to be traded away later in the season. Let's say Toronto asks Seattle for Shane Wright, multiple first and second round picks, and one of their best players in Gourde. Seattle takes a huge risk that they might cut the legs out of their future for 1 year of Matthews, with no chance to recoup anything close to that.

Toronto either offers Matthews something close to max, he re-signs, and they figure out the cap in the 2024 off season - or Matthews tells Toronto he wants to play out the season, in which case they probably ask him for a list of teams he would want to go to. Even know his NMC has not kicked in, nobody is giving up a package for Matthews without knowing that he wants to be there. Otherwise, they will risk losing him for nothing, and won't be able to recoup any real value at the TDL due to his NMC.

In that scenario, Matthews probably gives them as little as 1 team. Maybe he gives them 2 or 3. Those teams are not going to blow their brains out to get Matthews. The Matthew Tkachuk trade was a very unique situation where Florida basically gave up a pending UFA (Weegar) who they couldn't keep beyond the season anyways and a 1st round pick to upgrade Huberdeau to Tkachuk. So while on paper it seems like they gave up a lot, they really didn't. It's going to be difficult for Toronto to replicate that sort of scenario because most stars of Huberdeau's ilk have NMCs.

Toronto will be given a very short list of teams, and they will get a handful of solid pieces, but it won't be anywhere near full value. The Karlsson trade turned out to be a franchise defining trade return, but on the day of the trade it was considered pennies on the dollar. Quite a few teams didn't even have Norris in the 1st round of his draft year, and Dorion considered him a future top 9 centre, not a 1st line C. The 1st was expected to be a playoff pick, or in the most optimistic of scenarios somewhere in that 10-16 type wheel house in a perfect situation where San Jose took a step back and missed the playoffs. Balcers and Demelo had little value (Demelo wasn't even qualified). Tierney was redundant in San Jose and they needed to move out cap, although he was a decent young top 9 center. Then they got a few 2nd/3rd round picks.

The other package offered for Karlsson was Hintz/Honka/Shore and "draft picks". It has never been clarified if that package included a 1st. Hintz turned into a star, but at the time he was maybe the 4th best prospect in Dallas, sort of in that wheelhouse. He had 35 points as a 20 year old in the AHL, and was more of a long term project with size and upside but not a guaranteed star. Honka and Shore were nothing pieces.

Ottawa and Vegas were also close at the trade deadline, but they couldn't agree on a deal in time. Dorion apparently wanted Cody Glass, which Vegas wouldn't do. While Cody Glass was a top prospect at the time, we're not talking about a top tier guaranteed superstar type prospect. He was probably a top 10 NHL affiliated prospect, and Vegas wouldn't give that up for two playoff runs of Karlsson. In this scenario, we're talking one year of Matthews. Shane Wright is probably the closest comparable on Seattle, but I would say he is worth more now than Glass was at the time.

It's going to take Matthews being willing to sign an extension with the team he is going to, which probably won't happen - and it will also take him being willing to sign with more than 1 team so that Toronto can create a bidding war. Toronto's best bet to get a good return is probably LAK. Seattle doesn't have the organizational depth to give up big pieces. LAK are very deep. They could give up Byfield and other pieces for Matthews without an extension, and if he walks it's a big hit, but it's not going to change their trajectory. If Seattle loses Wright and multiple top draft picks, they kill whatever they are doing.