Quoting: NYR1983
Players don’t die at 30. Some have their best years at 35. JTM is fine for the next 5 and so would Bo. If you have to move either of them later on it’s not an issue. There’s always a landing spot. But having them at their prime is worth something which is why NYR offered Chytil, Lundkvist, 1st for JTM and NYI offer what they did for Bo. Some change is good but you have to keep 1/2 of those guys. Unless you’re looking for full rebuild which takes years typically. So back to the 4 year term you will have wasted 1/2 of these contracts with QH and EP. I’m sure you could ask them if they are good with missing playoffs the next 4 years and they would say no. So if the org isn’t trying to get them there then they will be disgruntled. They may demand a trade(not uncommon these days). Your plan will keep them out of playoffs for 4 years guaranteed, the current mode is at least putting in a huge effort to get there while accruing futures.
Statistically they do kinda die after 30. Or more accurately 33+. Unless they are a really special player who keeps themselves in great shape, players tend to fall off pretty hard around that time. Miller certainly doesn't seem like the profile that will age well given his iffy attitude. Look at guys like Toews, Kane, Seguin, Staal, Voracek, OReilly the list goes on. It's not even really debatable. The data shows us players peak in their mid to late 20s. There are some exceptions but you definitely don't want to bet on it. I would suggest Miller would be a particularly bad one to bet on as well.
Teams definitely do not trade for overpaid players. You act like it would be so easy to trade them down the road. It's near impossible to move bad contracts unless you want to attach them to 1st round picks.
How good would that JT for Chytl, Lundqvist and 1st look now. Chytl is almost 2c already and Lundqvist got moved for a 1st. I would suggest no team in the league is trading for Horvat with that contract. I think he'll put up like 50 points next season and it'll be one of the worst contracts in the sport. And that's yr one. Just imagine yr 6,7,8. If they are however the only way it makes sense is if a team has a 3 or 4 yr window to try and win and then just deal with the pain of it later.
There were 8 players 35 or older in the top 100 scoring this yr and 6 of them are first balot HOFers. Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kopitar, Bergeron, Pavelski, Burns, Zuccarello. Is Miller in this type of company? Even guys 33 and over it's only a 4-5 more guys. I don't think you realize how much players fall off in their 30s. I do expect JT to be decent the next 2-3 yrs but I don't after that. Even this yr there were massive concerns about his game and it was only a late season point surge that has quieted those concerns.
It comes down to do you want to likely miss the playoffs the next 2-3 yrs and then be in a good position with cupboards stocked with young talent and cap space going forward or do you want to maybe make the playoffs and likely exit 1st round and then have no prospects and very little cap space? The short term approach is what has the Canucks in the position theyre in, despite having a number of franchise pieces.
For example lets say they made that Chytl trade and signed Dylan Strome would they have had a worse chance at the playoffs than with Miller and Nils Aman or whoever played 3c this yr. It's not a 4 yrs thing its 2 or 3. And you're moving in the right direction after one, rather than slipping away every yr and remortgaging the future each yr.