4 Line Conics

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Gruden, Jonathan	1	850 000 $
Hållander, Filip	1	850 000 $
Maniscalco, Joshua	1	850 000 $
Lindberg, Filip	1	850 000 $
Nylander, Alexander	1	850 000 $
Puustinen, Valtteri	1	850 000 $
Smith, Ty	1	1 150 000 $
O'Connor, Drew	1	900 000 $

UFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Zucker, Jason	4	4 500 000 $
Toews, Jonathan	2	5 000 000 $
Jarry, Tristan	3	4 000 000 $
Lyon, Alex	1	1 000 000 $
Stone, Michael	1	1 000 000 $
Shattenkirk, Kevin	1	4 000 000 $
Stepan, Derek	1	1 000 000 $

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	77 004 342 $	0 $	0 $	6 495 658 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Puustinen, Valtteri 850 000 $850 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1	Crosby, Sidney 8 700 000 $8 700 000 $ C NMC UFA - 2	Rakell, Rickard 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 5
Zucker, Jason 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Malkin, Evgeni 6 100 000 $6 100 000 $ C NMC UFA - 3	Granlund, Mikael 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ C, AD UFA - 2
Guentzel, Jake 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 1	Toews, Jonathan 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ C UFA	Rust, Bryan 5 125 000 $5 125 000 $ AD, AG NMC UFA - 5
O'Connor, Drew 900 000 $900 000 $ AG UFA - 2	Stepan, Derek 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ C, AD UFA	Nylander, Alexander 850 000 $850 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Pettersson, Marcus 4 025 175 $4 025 175 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 2	Letang, Kris 6 100 000 $6 100 000 $ DD NMC UFA - 5	Jarry, Tristan 4 000 000 $4 000 000 $ G UFA - 5
Hanifin, Noah 1 237 500 $1 237 500 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 1	Smith, Ty 1 150 000 $1 150 000 $ DG/DD RFA - 1	DeSmith, Casey 1 800 000 $1 800 000 $ G UFA - 1
Joseph, Pierre-Olivier 825 000 $825 000 $ DG RFA - 1	Shattenkirk, Kevin 4 000 000 $4 000 000 $ DD UFA - 1

16 avr. 2023 à 16 h 47

#1

Pensman69

spoiled penguins fan

Rejoint: mai 2022

Messages: 2,697

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Modifié 16 avr. 2023 à 16 h 56

I’ve gotta say this is probably the most unique one I’ve seen yet and there’s a lot to like but a lot to question.

First, where’s Poulin stay in all of this? Also, I’m not sure how both Toews and the Pens would feel about paying him that amount for third line minutes; I’d assume he wants a championship and goes to a team where his ideal role can be fulfilled and he can play top line or at least top 6 minutes. Unless in this case maybe you switch the 2nd and 3rd lines and have Malkin play 3C with his defensive liabilities being in question?

I don’t hate the Hanifin move but I don’t love it. We are trading arguably one of our best acquisitions of the season in Poehling and 2 seconds for a $5m dman with just 1 year left on his contract which will either A; need an extension that could kill us or B; not want to sign and goes and walks in free agency and we look stupid for trading 2 seconds for that.

Other then those couple issues I don’t think there’s really much to complain about here other then Shattenkirk’s $4m contract to play on the third pair, we could replace that with a more serviceable and cheaper option to free up more cap.

Overall, I like the idea of this and how deep this team is though there are some issues. Def one of the better ones I’ve seen though. 👍

Victor24 a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2023 à 17 h 23

#2

Victor24

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Quoting: Pensman69

I’ve gotta say this is probably the most unique one I’ve seen yet and there’s a lot to like but a lot to question.

First, where’s Poulin stay in all of this? Also, I’m not sure how both Toews and the Pens would feel about paying him that amount for third line minutes; I’d assume he wants a championship and goes to a team where his ideal role can be fulfilled and he can play top line or at least top 6 minutes. Unless in this case maybe you switch the 2nd and 3rd lines and have Malkin play 3C with his defensive liabilities being in question?

I don’t hate the Hanifin move but I don’t love it. We are trading arguably one of our best acquisitions of the season in Poehling and 2 seconds for a $5m dman with just 1 year left on his contract which will either A; need an extension that could kill us or B; not want to sign and goes and walks in free agency and we look stupid for trading 2 seconds for that.

Other then those couple issues I don’t think there’s really much to complain about here other then Shattenkirk’s $4m contract to play on the third pair, we could replace that with a more serviceable and cheaper option to free up more cap.

Overall, I like the idea of this and how deep this team is though there are some issues. Def one of the better ones I’ve seen though. 👍

Thanks. I tried to base everything off advanced stats.

For Poulin, I want to put him in but thought it would be best for him to start in the minors. He lost time with mental health stuff and I wanted to ease him in. If one of the other rookies falter, he can replace them.

Toews would be getting 10MM over two ÿears. He would also be a good litmus test to see of Guentzel can be great away from Sid but with a capable center. That third line would be top on possession numbers on the NHL. The Pens can also promise to move him up for Sid or Gino if they get hurt. And they can promise to trade him to a contender if they fall off. His numbers will likely be great with Guentzel and Rust. Also his contract would fall in line with Sids so he would fall in their believed window. He won't get that amount of money on a sure fire contender.

Hanafin is a decent defenseman who is a bounce back candidate. Both seconds are likely to be low. I am not as big on Poe. His possession numbers are bad. I don't see a spot for him on this roster. There is the risk of Hanafin leaving but if his underlying numbers continue, the Pens don't want him long term. It's a risk.

As for Shattenkirk, his possession numbers are very good and in a semi sheltered 3rd line role, he could really help POJ. It is an overpay but I really didn't need the cap room anywhere else.

Pensman69 a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2023 à 17 h 36

#3

Ledge_And_Dairy

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 39,955

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Yeah thats not getting you Hanifin. Try again with a real offer

16 avr. 2023 à 17 h 39

#4

Pensman69

spoiled penguins fan

Rejoint: mai 2022

Messages: 2,697

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Quoting: Victor24

Thanks. I tried to base everything off advanced stats.

For Poulin, I want to put him in but thought it would be best for him to start in the minors. He lost time with mental health stuff and I wanted to ease him in. If one of the other rookies falter, he can replace them.

Toews would be getting 10MM over two ÿears. He would also be a good litmus test to see of Guentzel can be great away from Sid but with a capable center. That third line would be top on possession numbers on the NHL. The Pens can also promise to move him up for Sid or Gino if they get hurt. And they can promise to trade him to a contender if they fall off. His numbers will likely be great with Guentzel and Rust. Also his contract would fall in line with Sids so he would fall in their believed window. He won't get that amount of money on a sure fire contender.

Hanafin is a decent defenseman who is a bounce back candidate. Both seconds are likely to be low. I am not as big on Poe. His possession numbers are bad. I don't see a spot for him on this roster. There is the risk of Hanafin leaving but if his underlying numbers continue, the Pens don't want him long term. It's a risk.

As for Shattenkirk, his possession numbers are very good and in a semi sheltered 3rd line role, he could really help POJ. It is an overpay but I really didn't need the cap room anywhere else.

Understandable, overall though my biggest concern with this roster would be the age group of all these guys, adding guys like Toews and Stepan on the tail ends of their careers just slows down the team more. Though don’t get me wrong this is a very solid roster, I could realistically see this team winning a fair share of games next season and finishing in a comfortable playoff spot; most likely around 3rd? Lots of scoring, depth, defense looks solid and controlled, Jarry healthy and the limitless veteran presence around the team will surely be a help to the young guns. I like the Puustinen idea and am interested to see how that will turn out but as you said, we have other rookies in line if that plan ended up not working. The Hanifin deal is a big question mark for me though.

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16 avr. 2023 à 17 h 45

#5

Victor24

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Quoting: Pensman69

Understandable, overall though my biggest concern with this roster would be the age group of all these guys, adding guys like Toews and Stepan on the tail ends of their careers just slows down the team more. Though don’t get me wrong this is a very solid roster, I could realistically see this team winning a fair share of games next season and finishing in a comfortable playoff spot; most likely around 3rd? Lots of scoring, depth, defense looks solid and controlled, Jarry healthy and the limitless veteran presence around the team will surely be a help to the young guns. I like the Puustinen idea and am interested to see how that will turn out but as you said, we have other rookies in line if that plan ended up not working. The Hanifin deal is a big question mark for me though.

Yes but it hedges bets. If the Pens are good and a player isn't performing, he can be replaced. If the Pens aren't good and an older player is playing well, the Pens can eat half of his cap and get a return. If the Pens aren't good and the vets aren't playing well, most will be gone in a year or two.

I understand your reservations, as I would share them. But this is the best team that could be assembled using advanced stats, IMO.

Pensman69 a aimé ceci.

16 avr. 2023 à 17 h 53

#6

Pensman69

spoiled penguins fan

Rejoint: mai 2022

Messages: 2,697

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Quoting: Victor24

Yes but it hedges bets. If the Pens are good and a player isn't performing, he can be replaced. If the Pens aren't good and an older player is playing well, the Pens can eat half of his cap and get a return. If the Pens aren't good and the vets aren't playing well, most will be gone in a year or two.

I understand your reservations, as I would share them. But this is the best team that could be assembled using advanced stats, IMO.

Interesting to note that Fenway Sports has said that they want to take the team in a more of an “analytical” direction so maybe it’s possible we do see a team that’s assembled close to this and maybe we do take a crack at Toews when he hits free agency and hit him with a pitch to play with 3 hall of famers of his time to try to contend for one last cup with us?

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16 avr. 2023 à 18 h 7

#7

Victor24

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Yeah thats not getting you Hanifin. Try again with a real offer

I mean maybe Cal wants to keep him but this year's numbers are not great and their extension with Weegar starts next year. If they do trade him, this is likely the offer they'd get. Hanafins goals above expected is -1.8 (similar to Marc Staal), his relative CF% and relative FF% are -6.7 and -6, respectively. His on is on ice shot % is the 6th best of Calgarys dmen behind Weegar, Stone, Zadarov, Andersson, and Tanev. Finally, Calgarys expected goals with Hanifin on the ice is 52.7% and 54.9% when he is not on the ice for a difference of -2.2%.

All of that said, he was better last season so it could be a fluke but it might not be too.

16 avr. 2023 à 18 h 53

#8

Brad_Treliving

Rejoint: oct. 2021

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Leafs easily decline

16 avr. 2023 à 19 h 1

#9

Victor24

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Quoting: Babatunde

Leafs easily decline

Why is that? Advanced stats show Carter is a good 4th line center with a positive corsi in that role. He gives you around 10 - 15 goals per year with 10min per night. Provides veteran leadership. Wins face-offs at 60%+ (top 10 in the NHL). At 1.6MM, he is actually quite good. He would be a great (and cheaper) replacement for O'Reilly.

16 avr. 2023 à 20 h 59

#10

Ledge_And_Dairy

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 39,955

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Quoting: Victor24

I mean maybe Cal wants to keep him but this year's numbers are not great and their extension with Weegar starts next year. If they do trade him, this is likely the offer they'd get. Hanafins goals above expected is -1.8 (similar to Marc Staal), his relative CF% and relative FF% are -6.7 and -6, respectively. His on is on ice shot % is the 6th best of Calgarys dmen behind Weegar, Stone, Zadarov, Andersson, and Tanev. Finally, Calgarys expected goals with Hanifin on the ice is 52.7% and 54.9% when he is not on the ice for a difference of -2.2%.

All of that said, he was better last season so it could be a fluke but it might not be too.

If you think you can make a lowball for a 1st pairing defenseman nock at someone elses door

16 avr. 2023 à 21 h 19

#11

Victor24

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

If you think you can make a lowball for a 1st pairing defenseman nock at someone elses door

I mean you're entitled to your opinion but based on the analytics, he isn't a first pairing defenseman. You can note that in my roster he is 2nd pair.

But hey, this is just for fun. If you want to debate my logic, you may.

16 avr. 2023 à 21 h 33

#12

Ledge_And_Dairy

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 39,955

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Quoting: Victor24

I mean you're entitled to your opinion but based on the analytics, he isn't a first pairing defenseman. You can note that in my roster he is 2nd pair.

But hey, this is just for fun. If you want to debate my logic, you may.

Based on ice time and analytics he was 34th in 5v5 ice time this year, 16th in SF/60, 81st in SA/60 (32nd in Sf%), 32nd in CF/60, 75th in CA/60 (41st in CF%), 18th in xGF/60, 99th in xGA/60 (38th in xGF%). And this was a down year, in the previous fee years he was much higher in all those categories so yes he is without question a 1st pairing defenseman

16 avr. 2023 à 21 h 57

#13

Victor24

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Modifié 16 avr. 2023 à 22 h 11

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Based on ice time and analytics he was 34th in 5v5 ice time this year, 16th in SF/60, 81st in SA/60 (32nd in Sf%), 32nd in CF/60, 75th in CA/60 (41st in CF%), 18th in xGF/60, 99th in xGA/60 (38th in xGF%). And this was a down year, in the previous fee years he was much higher in all those categories so yes he is without question a 1st pairing defenseman

Right. I have said all of that. My logic was that Calgary has a surplus of defenseman. Hanafin has value but he has had a bad year. He would be the most likely piece to be moved. The return would provide a middle 6 forward, two 2nd round picks, and 5MM in cap space.

I know all of the advanced stats. If you look at them for this year, he is not a 1st pairing defenseman. I didn't say he was valueless or terrible. If he was, I wouldn't have (in this mock) traded for him.

You can't say he is 75th or 81st or 99th in a stat, and then say he is UNQUESTIONABLY a 1st pair defenseman. I mean.... I guess you can (being a free country and all) but the logic fails to track. He ranks 6th among Calgary dmen in terms of on ice shot % with his team more likely to score by 2% with him on the bench. Compared to Letang (9% more likely) or Hughes (11%) or Makar (7%). For context, -2% is close to Hagg, Leddy, and Goligoski.

Top pairing defenseman make it more likely for their team to score, not less likely.

Edit: Honestly, I was on the fence about Hanafin. He has always been hurt by his terrible shooting %. I mean, he's missing the net 35% of the time. That's not good.

17 avr. 2023 à 0 h 19

#14

Ledge_And_Dairy

Rejoint: juin 2019

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Quoting: Victor24

Right. I have said all of that. My logic was that Calgary has a surplus of defenseman. Hanafin has value but he has had a bad year. He would be the most likely piece to be moved. The return would provide a middle 6 forward, two 2nd round picks, and 5MM in cap space.

I know all of the advanced stats. If you look at them for this year, he is not a 1st pairing defenseman. I didn't say he was valueless or terrible. If he was, I wouldn't have (in this mock) traded for him.

You can't say he is 75th or 81st or 99th in a stat, and then say he is UNQUESTIONABLY a 1st pair defenseman. I mean.... I guess you can (being a free country and all) but the logic fails to track. He ranks 6th among Calgary dmen in terms of on ice shot % with his team more likely to score by 2% with him on the bench. Compared to Letang (9% more likely) or Hughes (11%) or Makar (7%). For context, -2% is close to Hagg, Leddy, and Goligoski.

Top pairing defenseman make it more likely for their team to score, not less likely.

Lol right so Calgary should sell low on Hanifin in your opinion? Ryan Poeling is not a middle 6 forward either, he literally should not make the Fpames starting lineup next year even if they sign zero UFA's.

How are those not 1st pair defenseman numbers? When tracking things like Corsi, SF%, and expected goals there are 2 sides of the ice. For and against. I posted both and then the average.

Lets take a look at some of those names you mentioned though
Letang: 24th in SF/60, 181st in SA/60, 18th in CF/60, 153rd in CA/60, 5th in xGF/60, 163rd in xGA/60
Hughes: 124th in SF/60, 36th in SA/60, 132nd CF/60, 33rd in CA/60, 151st in xGF/60, 100th in xGA/60.

As you can see being top 100 in both the offensive and defensive aspects of analytics is very difficult to achieve, very few players excell at both

17 avr. 2023 à 12 h 47

#15

Victor24

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Lol right so Calgary should sell low on Hanifin in your opinion? Ryan Poeling is not a middle 6 forward either, he literally should not make the Fpames starting lineup next year even if they sign zero UFA's.

How are those not 1st pair defenseman numbers? When tracking things like Corsi, SF%, and expected goals there are 2 sides of the ice. For and against. I posted both and then the average.

Lets take a look at some of those names you mentioned though
Letang: 24th in SF/60, 181st in SA/60, 18th in CF/60, 153rd in CA/60, 5th in xGF/60, 163rd in xGA/60
Hughes: 124th in SF/60, 36th in SA/60, 132nd CF/60, 33rd in CA/60, 151st in xGF/60, 100th in xGA/60.

As you can see being top 100 in both the offensive and defensive aspects of analytics is very difficult to achieve, very few players excell at both

I suppose we can both cherry pick data all day but at then end of the day, I think Hanafin is having a bad year and is likely to be traded. I think his value is listed above. You most certainly don't have to agree.

I prefer analytics that show how important a player is to their team scoring or preventing goals. Things like: On Ice Expected Goals and Goals Above Expected. They show both sides of the ice, not just in possession but finishing as well.

I also think Poe has middle 6 potential, you again disgree.

You present a well though out argument using your preferred analytics, which is totally cool. We just don't agree. Cheers.

17 avr. 2023 à 12 h 48

#16

Ritzy

Leafs Sufferer

Rejoint: juill. 2019

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I've read plenty of complaint posts from Pens fans about Carter. He's all yours.

17 avr. 2023 à 12 h 56

#17

Victor24

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Quoting: Ritzy

I've read plenty of complaint posts from Pens fans about Carter. He's all yours.

Yeah. They complain because he is paid 3.1MM and has bad possession numbers in the offensive zone. In a 4th line role he would excell (scoring 10+, great at faceoffs) but be overpaid. If the Pens eat 1.5MM he is no longer overpaid.

I see it as a great fit. He would be a great fit on the Pens 4th line if he were paid 1.6MM

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2023
2024
2025

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Hållander, Filip 850 000 $850 000 $ C RFA
Ruhwedel, Chad 800 000 $800 000 $ DD UFA - 1
Friedman, Mark 775 000 $775 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1

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