Bad deal for ASU

They want to get younger/futures while building for the future, not trade for a rental using a high end trade piece

You're missing a couple high end prospects and a first. Dumba is just a cap dump to ARI. (not saying he's a cap dump in general, but to ARI he is, cause he has no future value to them)

I disagree with that a bit.

If Dumba were fully retained by Minnesota at 50%. That would squarely put him at $3M and under market price to begin with. If Arizona then retained say another 25% on him then his value skyrockets to a contending team that's making a push and needs defensive help but is cap strapped. IE, Tampa or Edmonton. It also sounds like Ottawa really wants Dumba too.

At that price point, with 75% retention, he is absolutely worth a 1st. Even if it's a low one. The future value for Arizona is in further flipping him for more assets.

I'd agree that this isn't enough for BOTH Chychrun and Hayton. But it should definitely be in the running for Chychrun alone. I would replace Beckman with Addison too, acquiring Chychrun would make having Addison redundant. That should even the value nicely.

Dumba (50% retained)
Addison
2023 2nd
2024 2nd

I can see your point, but ARI is still going to need more. IT's not just the value of the deal. It's the optics to the fan base and the rest of the NHL. You've got to keep in mind that Chych is signed to a very team friendly deal for an additional 2 years. ARI can't trade him without getting at least 2 first round picks. And your though your thoughts on Dumba are sound, ARI would need to have a deal in place before acquiring him. There's just too much risk of not getting a good enough return

The current ask for Chychrun is two 1st's or the equivalent of two 1st's. Or a 1st and a top prospect. That equivalent of a 1st in value should still apply there.

Again, Dumba retained at 50% should be valued at a low 1st. With further retaining, his value only increases.

Addison is currently the leading Calder defenseman, is two years younger than Chychrun, and will fit Arizona’s timeline better. He qualifies as a *top prospect*

There's your valued asking price at the equivalent of a 1st and a top prospect.

Then to top it all off, they're getting two 2nd round picks in addition to the required asking price. He is already getting MORE than what's being asked here.

Arizona is fully capable of moving Dumba at 75% retention on their own. There's already reported interest from both Edmonton and Ottawa, and at that price somebody's going to jump. GMBA would be on the phones with Dorion, Holland, and likely several other GM's the moment he has a trade potentially in the bag with Guerin.

Besides it can very quickly turn into a 3-way trade evolving Dumba to somewhere else from what I already stated is likely to happen.